Reasons for the Steeler Super Bowl drought: part two. Taking a look at schemes and why we haven’t won in the last ten years.
In part two of our three-part series that explores the reasons for the Steelers Super Bowl drought, we will delve into our schemes on both sides of the ball in an attempt to explain the reason(s) why we have neither won a Super Bowl since the 2008 season nor have appeared in one since the 2010 season. As always, statistics and biographical information courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.
We always hear coaches say something to along the lines of “We need to put our players in positions to be successful” or “We are looking for players who fit what we do”. What does this really mean? To me, those statements are another way of saying this: Were the players we drafted a scheme fit or did we assume we could make them fit into our scheme? In part one of our series, we looked at our draft classes over the last decade with an eye toward determining whether or not those drafted players enabled us to be successful.
The last time the Steelers were victorious in the big game was after the 2008 season; a season in which we would finish ranked 20th in points for (points scored) and 1st in points against (points surrendered). Bruce Arians and DIck LeBeau were the Offensive and Defensive Coordinators, respectively; however, we have not won the Super Bowl since then. Were our offensive and defensive schemes to the reason for the Super Bowl drought? What schemes did we employ under Coaches Arians and LeBeau? Let’s take a look at that, shall we?
A vertical passing game and a zone blitz defense; Are the schemes the reason for the Steelers Super Bowl drought?
So I watched some old games on Youtube to reacquaint myself with the offensive and defensive schemes the Steelers ran in 2008; truthfully, I did not have to as I remember those years vividly. In 2008, we employed a vertical offensive scheme and a “zone blitz 3-4” (3 linemen; 4 linebackers) defensive scheme. More specifically, the vertical scheme falls under the “Air Coryell” offensive scheme, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
What is an “Air Coryell” offensive scheme? If you watched the San Diego Chargers of the late 1970s into the mid-1980s, you probably noticed a lot of motion, Kellen Winslow deployed as a receiver in certain formations and Dan Fouts throwing the ball all over the yard.
The Steelers’ 2008 version of the “Air Coryell” offense featured mostly one running back sets. What you would typically see was a “12” personnel grouping-one RB and two TEs. We still ran the ball but the passing game accounted for approximately 66% of the total yards gained on offense. I would categorize this style of offense as a “risk-reward” offense. The reward is obviously a big play capable offense; the risk is a sack waiting to happen if either no one gets open, an O-lineman gets beaten or the blitz can’t be picked up.
To put this into perspective, during the tenure of Bruce Arians as Offensive Coordinator (2007-2011), Ben was sacked (215) times. That is not a recipe for success if you ask me. While not all of those sacks could be attributed to poor offensive line play, the bottom line is you have to protect your franchise QB. Honestly, had it not been for Ben’s toughness, he probably would have missed more games because of injury. I think we, the fans, have taken Ben’s toughness for granted over the years.
Where did the offense rank during the Coach Arian years, you ask? Well, here are the rankings for Points For (Points Scored): 9th, 20th (Super Bowl XLIII-win), 12th, 12th (Super Bowl XLV-loss) and 21st. Let’s now take a look at our defensive scheme during the same time period.
Was the “Zone Blitz” scheme risk, reward, or both?
The simplistic answer is any scheme is inherently risky because, in the NFL, you can’t just sit back and play coverage the entire game, unless you have the Steel Curtain defense at your disposal. While we were not able to cajole “Mean Joe” Greene out of retirement in 2008, the Steelers did have the number one ranked defense in both Points Against (points scored by the opponents) and Yards (gained by the opponents).
So what is a “zone blitz” scheme? Since I am not a defensive guru, I will attempt to explain it as I watched it, from a fan’s perspective. The “zone blitz” is a scheme where a defender whom the opposing offense may not consider a threat to blitz does just that. When said defender blitzes, another defender occupies the zone that was left vacant by the blitzing defender.
It also is a scheme where the blitzing defender’s zone has to be covered by someone else. Additionally, there are those designed blitz packages where the “kitchen sink” is sent and the only defenders in coverage are 2 DB’s and a Safety, for example.
The “zone blitz” scheme was quite successful during Coach LeBeau’s reign. During his tenure (2004-2014), the defense would finish with the following rankings in Points Against and Yards:
2004-1st and 1st;
2005-3rd and 4th;
2006-11th and 9th:
2007-2nd and 1st;
2008-1st and 1st;
2009-12th and 5th;
2010-1st and 2nd;
2011-1st and 1st;
2012-6th and 1st;
2013-14th and 13th;
2014-18th and 18th
When you have a top (10) defense in (7) out of (11) years under the same D-coordinator, win one Super Bowl and appear in only one more during that time, I don’t think you can blame the defensive scheme for that. You can; however, blame, what appeared to me as a fan without any way of knowing what the calls were on defense during a particular game, maybe a lack of creativity in changing up the “blitz” packages. Here’s what I mean by that:
For virtually the entire (11) years that Coach LeBeau was the D-coordinator, the Steelers were in the base “3-4” on first and second downs, then in “Nickel” (5 DB’s) or in “Dime” (6 DB’s) on third down. The blitzes were creative, for sure, especially when we did the “walk around” type of alignment-one down lineman and everyone else on the front seven walking around so the opposing O-line couldn’t get a bead on who was blitzing.
As the defense got older; however, it seemed to me that the Steelers kept deploying the same blitz packages and expecting the same results. Quite frankly, in Coach LeBeau’s last two seasons with us (2013 and 2014), it was hard to watch at times as the defense suffered a precipitous drop in playmaking ability. The Steelers finished with back-to-back 8-8 records in 2012 and in 2013. Although we rebounded in 2014, we lost to the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round 17-30.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Coach LeBeau; I admire him both as a Hall of Fame player and the engineer of some truly stellar defenses during his tenure. Unfortunately, there were always those moments when we gave up a big play at an inopportune moment.
Although the Steelers ultimately won Super Bowl XLIII, that fourth-quarter TD that Larry Fitzgerald caught on a slant route and split the middle of the defense was truly deflating for me. James Farrior blitzed, Ike Taylor was late to cover Fitzgerald, it looked like James Harrison was the “trailer” (trailing linebacker) and Ryan Clark and Troy were nowhere to be found until it was too late. Again, that is my recollection and perspective of the play.
My immediate thought was this: Why did James Farrior blitz and not James Harrison? Why did Ike take an outside posture on a slant route? Where were Ryan and Troy? Admittedly, I do not know what the call was on that play. For all I know, everyone was where they were supposed to be, but it resulted in a go-ahead TD that made the game closer than it had to be.
The other play I will never forget is the final play against the Denver Broncos in the playoffs following the 2011 season. With the Broncos deep in their own territory, the first play of overtime was an (80) yard TD pass from Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas.
All I remember thinking about that play was this: After being down 6-20 at one point, we tied it up only to lose it on a play where we purposely called a “zero coverage” defense; a defense where there was no deep safety? Let’s just call that what it was-a terrible call. “Cover 1” (single high safety) would have been risky, but it would have been a better call, in hindsight. So that loss was on the Steelers defense; a defense that finished with the number one ranking in both points allowed and yards surrendered. How did the Steelers lose that game? I still can’t reconcile that loss.
So how have we fared post Coaches Arians and LeBeau?
New Coordinators, but the Steelers Super Bowl drought continues
After Bruce Arians “retired” following the 2011 season, Todd Haley became the O-coordinator. His style of offense was very near to a polar opposite of that of Bruce Arians. Haley installed what is referred to as the “Erhardt-Perkins” offensive scheme. What does that mean, you ask? Again, I am no guru so I will attempt to explain this from a fan’s perspective.
For those of us old enough to remember the Steelers teams of the 1990s, we remember Ron Erhardt as the O-coordinator. His offense featured mostly two-back sets, a lot of two TE sets and a “ground and pound” mentality. Sounds like the offense of the entire decade of the 1970s, doesn’t it? It was a ball-control offense that took its shots downfield when necessary. Personally, I think Ben was not too enamored with Haley’s philosophy.
During Haley’s tenure (2012-2017), the Steelers offense ranked 22nd, 16th, 7th, 4th, 10th and 8th, respectively, in Points For (points scored). In stark contrast to the sacks Ben absorbed during the Bruce Arians years, under Haley’s reign, Ben suffered (163) sacks, an average of (27) sacks per season versus an average of (43) sacks per season under Coach Arians. Haley’s offense was more conservative than the offense under Arians; however, Ben was better protected.
With Haley as the offensive coordinator, the Steelers finished 8-8, 8-8, 11-5 with a playoff loss the Baltimore Ravens, 10-6 with a Divisional round loss to the Denver Broncos, 11-5 with an AFC Championship loss to the New England Patriots and 13-3 with a Divisional round loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Seemingly, the Steelers had success under Haley, so what happened? Ben’s intimation at retirement is what happened. I don’t think the Steelers were in a position to say to Ben, “Hey, Todd is the O-coordinator and that’s that. Work it out with him”. In 2018, Haley was replaced by Randy Fichtner. The Steelers offense ranked 6th in PF (points for); Ben was sacked 24 times…and we missed the playoffs.
How about the defensive side of the ball? Let’s take a look.
New D-Coordinator, still no Super Bowl wins
In 2015, Dick LeBeau was replaced as D-coordinator by his long-time assistant, Keith Butler. As with LeBeau, I love Butler. He learned from one of the best, in my opinion. What I do not love; however, are the breakdowns on the defensive side of the ball that have plagued our defense since Butler has assumed command. Can all the blame be assigned to Butler? I am not so sure, but let’s save that for later.
Here are the defensive rankings in Points Against (points surrendered): 11th, 10th, 7th, and 16th. Not horrible, by any stretch, but not good enough to get us to the promised land. Although the Steelers base defense is still the 3-4, we utilize “sub-package” defensive alignments under Butler vastly more than we did under Coach LeBeau. It is not uncommon to see the Steelers open a series in “Nickel”. Obviously, this is predicated on what package the offense shows. The problem with the “Nickel” or the “Dime” defense is that they are both susceptible to the run, but are supposedly better against the pass. Maybe in the games talked about below, we just didn’t have to the right personnel for the situation?
While we are not going to detail each defensive breakdown alluded to earlier, here are some of the more egregious:
In 2016, the Steelers gave up (301) passing yards to the Philadelphia Eagles and lost 3-34. We gave up (222) yards rushing to the Miami Dolphins and lost 15-30. Although we would beat the Dolphins in the playoffs, did the Steelers miss an opportunity to host the AFC Championship game because of the regular season loss to the Dolphins? Maybe. So instead of hosting the Patriots, the Steelers gave up (374) passing yards and were, quite frankly, embarrassed, losing 17-36 on the road.
In 2017, after an embarrassing regular-season loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars at home 9-30, a game in which we gave up (231) rushing yards, the Steelers were again embarrassed in the playoffs at home against the “Jags”, losing 42-45, a game in which we gave up a total of (378) yards. Having been down 7-28 at one point, the Steelers got it to 35-42. There were some really questionable coaching decisions in that game which we will explore later, but, suffice to say, the offense clawed back to get the Steelers within striking distance and the defense just could neither get a stop when we needed one nor make the big play when we needed one. This was a low point for me as a fan, to be sure.
Last season was particularly trying to be a fan. After week 11, the Steelers were 7-2-1. We were sitting pretty until weeks 12, 13 and 14 when we, inexplicably, lost three in a row to the then 4-6 Denver Broncos, the 8-3 San Deigo Chargers, a game in which we blew a 23-7 halftime lead and to the then 2-10 Oakland Raiders. Absolutely disgraceful. Another low point without a doubt.
What was really mind-boggling to me during that three-game losing streak was the loss to the Chargers. The Steelers were up 23-7 at halftime. Without doing a whole bunch of research, I can’t remember the last time a Steelers team lost a (16) point lead. Although the offense played too conservatively in the second half, in my opinion, the defense just simply broke down and allowed the Chargers to mount a comeback.
One thing that I will never forget about that game is this: The Steelers D chose to or at least it appeared that we chose to have a linebacker cover Keenan Allen, WR for the Chargers. After getting beaten multiple times with an LB covering a receiver, the Steelers D seemingly made no adjustments. Was this Butler not adjusting to what was transpiring or was it something else that we, as fans, were not privy to? We will explore that later as well.
Let’s wrap up this part of our three-part series. At the outset of this article, I indicated that we would take a look at how our draft picks fit into our schemes. I think the simple answer is this: While the Steelers have had successful regular seasons and have made the playoffs, we have not won a Super Bowl since 2008. Are or were the draft picks to blame? Are or were the schemes to blame? The only aspect left to look at is coaching. Stay tuned for part three.