It is officially week 1 in the NFL’s 100th season. The Steelers open the season on the road in Foxboro for a match-up against the New England Patriots. Today we look at what it will take to beat the Patriots to start their 2019 campaign.
In the recent decade, the NFL usually has the defending champions kickoff against a high profile opponent. Instead, the Patriots will host the Steelers on Sunday Night Football on NBC.
This is significant as it is the first time since 2004 the defending champion has not opened up on Thursday Night. Additionally, the Patriots will lift their banner on their NFL record-tying 6th Super Bowl title. The only other team with 6 Super Bowls? The Pittsburgh Steelers.
This match-up is very intriguing. The Steelers defeated the Patriots last year in Heinz Field—the last time the Patriots have lost—by virtue of a stout defense, multiple Patriot pre-snap penalties, and ball controlling offense.
For the Steelers to come out of Foxboro with a victory, there will have to be a lot of things accomplished. While the Patriots thrive on a constantly changing roster, it will be a big test to see how Pittsburgh do with the loss of Antonio Brown.
Other than the departure of Antonio Brown and Leveon Bell, the Steelers have pretty good continuity on the roster. Pittsburgh in essence only has 3 brand new starters: Steve Nelson, Devin Bush/Mark Barron, and Donte Moncrief.
This, as well as a few other elements, could be the difference in the path to victory, or a culprit to defeat. Let’s start how the Steelers can avoid an 0-1 start for the fifth time this decade.
The Steelers will win if offensively…
The big key for the Steelers offense will be what has worked for them in the past against the Patriots: controlling the clock and effective ground game.
Last year in Heinz Field, Pittsburgh averaged 6.3 per rush while chewing up the slight majority of the clock (30:49 possession time.) Jaylen Samuels recorded his first career 100-yard rushing game with 142 big ones. This was ultimately the deciding factor as it allowed the defense to be a little more rested and threw the Patriots off balance defensively.
Rewind a little more to 2011. Though the Steelers only recorded 98 yards and 4.3 per attempt in the rushing game, it was sufficient enough to consume nearly 40 minutes of possession time. Add in the dink and dunk passing attack that was led by Heath Miller’s 7 receptions for 85 yards, and the Steelers had an effective game plan in a massive victory at that point in their season.
The Steelers should be loaded with running concepts to attack the Patriots. Over the last 5 match-ups (including playoffs) the Steelers have recorded 100 yards rushing total in 3 match-ups—all three in a win or loss within 7 points or less.
You don’t need to get into a track meet with the Patriots. You want your defense to be rested and able to adequately adjust while they are on the sideline. This is something the Patriots excel in.
A balanced attack and clock draining offense will help the Steelers try to come away with a victory in Gillette Stadium for the first time in 11 years—a team that was without Tom Brady.
The Steelers will win if defensively…
Pittsburgh’s defense is going to have to be perfect. Make no mistake; the Patriots were not at their best when they traveled to the Steel City several months ago. Pittsburgh took advantage of their disarray that included 14 Patriot penalties for 106 yards.
At home, the Patriots average 32.16 points in Gillette Stadium against the Steelers all time. Conversely, Pittsburgh’s offense only averages 21.5 points.
The defense will have to be one step ahead of Tom Brady and co. That is a task much more complicated than not. However, the Steelers are a different unit on that side of the ball.
The Steelers went into free agency and acquired two key free agents (Nelson & Barron) and drafted Devin Bush to give their defense a much-needed boost. A defense that last season looked to have depth issues in multiple areas showed the exact opposite in the preseason. Yes, it might’ve been only preseason competition, but the defensive depth looked fantastic even for preseason standards.
The Pittsburgh will have to do a few things defensively to beat the Patriots—all of which play hand in hand. The Steelers defense must: win the first down snap, win the third-down conversion battle, and pressure Tom Brady consistently.
The Patriots are going to put the Steelers defense on their heels early. They test the line with run plays against Pittsburgh’s sub-packages, quick throws against their base 3-4 set, and then run an up-tempo offense to hold off the Steelers pass rush. Pittsburgh will do themselves a favor by winning the first down. If they force a play of 2 yards or less in gained yards, they put the series in their advantage.
The Patriots in their past two losses to the Steelers only converted 6 third downs in 20 attempts. Pittsburgh in their previous three losses to the Patriots saw Tom Brady convert 21 times on 38 attempts. That is a considerable difference. The key is creating a third a long situation—which begins on first down.
If you can put the Patriots in a 3rd and long (you could argue 7+ yards) you’re looking at your defense being able to focus on the pass rush. Anything less than 6 yards can be easily converted with a quick pass or run.
The Steelers have recorded only 3 sacks in the past two match-ups, but last year the pressure was on Brady early and often. If you put Brady on the ground, you’re going to create an advantage that breaks down even the greatest of quarterbacks.
Sunday night will not be a make or break game. There will still be 15 other games. However, Pittsburgh will undoubtedly be looking to avoid their fifth 0-1 start under Coach Mike Tomlin. What better way to do it than to take down the defending champions in their own home?
Here We Go Steelers!