Once seen as a coup for the Steelers, the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade is starting to look more like an overpay and better value for the Dolphins
The Steelers made a very rare trade last season, as they sent their first, fifth, and 2021 sixth to the Dolphins in exchange for Minkah Fitzpatrick, a fourth, and a 2021 seventh. Considering the Steelers had yet to win a game and they had lost franchise QB, Ben Roethlisberger, for the season due to an elbow injury, the trade was a little puzzling. The team had a shot at a top ten pick in the draft, and the fact they were giving it away for a DB who was already complaining about his role a year into his career seemed like a large risk.
The Steelers made the Dolphins seem silly though, as Fitzpatrick quickly turned this defense around and had a stellar year. He recorded an impressive five interceptions during the season, and while the takeaways were nice, he completely locked down the deep portion of the field, making any deep pass a risk with him on patrol. He seemed to be almost everywhere when you needed him, and his play as a whole put him in the talks of an elite safety going into the 2020 season.
Yet here we are talking about Fitzpatrick negatively because he hasn’t done much to warrant any of the praise, he earned last year. Simply put, this trade isn’t a homerun anymore, and frankly, it could end up being seen as a victory for the Dolphins if his play continues to dip. All of this considered, here are the reasons the Steelers are no longer winning the Fitzpatrick trade.
Fitzpatrick’s 2020 play has been lackluster
The Steelers need a rangy FS well before Fitzpatrick became available via trade. The team had tried to put Mike Mitchell there, and after he was cut, they wanted Sean Davis to transition to that spot. Worse yet, he got injured early last season, meaning the Steelers were faced with starting Kameron Kelly, which likely would have been a disaster.
Fitzpatrick was a high pedigree guy who had the look of a top safety, which made him an obvious fit with the Steelers. The price for him was steep though, as the Steelers rarely move a first-round pick. This means they viewed Fitzpatrick as a potentially elite defender, and during his first year with the Steelers, he backed that up. This year though, his production has fallen off in a major way.
So far in 2020, Fitzpatrick has only 11 tackles with no accredited turnovers. Worse yet, QBs have completed 7/9 passes his way and have averaged a rating of 111.1 when targeting him. Those numbers are abysmal for a player who is praised for their pass coverage and ability to bait a QB into making mistakes. While he does have almost a whole year’s worth of tape in a Steelers uniform, the difference between a good player and a great player is adjusting to teams adjusting around you.
While QBs may not be as likely to throw Fitzpatrick’s way in 2020, but that can’t stop him from having a good season. He needs to be able to adjust to this and return to his 2019 form. If he can’t then the Steelers are faced with an ugly reality: they overplayed for a player and lost out in a trade.
The Steelers could have signed a mid-range FA
Playing the hypothetical game (a dangerous thing to do), let’s say the Steelers don’t trade for Fitzpatrick in 2019 and keep their original picks. For starters, it’s safe to say the Steelers lose more than eight games. Fitzpatrick made this defense elite with his tenacity to take the ball away. Without him, the Steelers easily lose three more games, meaning their record comes in at a measly 5-11.
Without Fitzpatrick, the team would have a huge hole at FS. That said, they have multiple routes to fill it, starting with free agency. While the team wasn’t flush with cap space, they had enough to make some minor moves. Considering the deflation of the safety market, the Steelers would have been able to find at least a stop gate at the position.
The first option that comes to mind is Adrian Phillips, formerly of the Chargers who is now with the Patriots. While he was never a full-time starter for the Chargers, he was a great rotational piece in the secondary. He signed a deal for only three million a year, and so far has been a bright spot for the Patriots secondary. While not an elite player, Phillips would certainly have worked as a starter for a year or two.
As well, the Steelers could have targeted former Raider and now Browns safety Karl Joseph. The former first-round pick reportedly had a lot of interest from the Steelers going back to the draft but was taken too high for the team to be able to draft him. He has played pretty well for the Browns so far and likely would have transitioned well to the Steelers defense. While neither of these options are upgrades over Fitzpatrick, both are having similar success to Fitzpatrick right now. Even more importantly, neither would have cost a first-round pick.
What could have happened in the draft
While signing a mid-level free agent would do for the short term, the Steelers likely would have turned to the draft to solve the issue long-term. Now, there wouldn’t have been a safety worth taking in the first, but the Steelers could have added a plethora of different weapons in the first. At the bare minimum, they could have drafted IOL Cesar Ruiz, WR Justin Jefferson, or ILB Patrick Queen in the first, further adding to the overall talent on this roster.
As said before though, the Steelers easily would have lost more games in 2020 had it not been for Fitzpatrick. Assuming the Steelers drop 2-3 more games, suddenly they have a top-10 pick. Had this happened, the Steelers could have had a shot at a top QB like Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. Considering Roethlisberger’s recent statements on playing longer though, the Steelers could opt for a more instant impact with their first pick.
While taking the high upside hybrid Isaiah Simmons could have worked, the Steelers could have targeted a future starting OT like Tristan Wirfs. Wirfs is a freaky athlete and could either play inside or outside. Ideally, he would be penciled in at LT for next year after starting off on the right side this year. While Wirfs would be a great addition both in the short term and long term, the Steelers second-round pick would be even better.
Now, the Steelers second-round pick would have been vaulted into the range of the late ’30s, and the team could have grabbed safety Antoine Winfield Jr. So far, Winfield has played all over the Buccaneers secondary and has recorded a pair of sacks and an interception. He along with a free agent safety would be able to man down the FS spot and assuming Winfield continues to develop, could become a more valuable player than Fitzpatrick.
Are the Steelers true losers?
To reiterate, the Steelers aren’t clear losers in the Fitzpatrick trade. Assuming he can get back on the right track, these kinds of talks will die down. That said, there is reason to be concerned right now as a Steelers fan. Fitzpatrick looks little like what he did last year, and if he can’t return to that level, this deal may tilt in favor of the Dolphins.
While a first-round pick for an all-pro safety isn’t a hefty price, Fitzpatrick is only playing like an average starter right now. He isn’t a train wreck like some of the other options the Steelers have fielded at FS, but he also isn’t worth the steep investment right now. If he improves his play and gets back to form, the deal will go back in favor of the Steelers. This doesn’t even mean he needs to go interception crazy, but he at least needs to be competent at preventing completions similar to his play of last year.
While the life without Fitzpatrick scenario was a hypothetical, it was one that realistically fell in line with what could have happened. What would you rather have, an average FS or a future promising LT and a budding rookie safety mixed in with an average free agent safety? These things have to be considered when considering the overall success of the trade for Fitzpatrick.
Obviously, the season is far from over. It is possible that Fitzpatrick shuts up his critics and returns to his impressive play from 2019. Until then though, the value balance has tipped in favor of the Dolphins. If Fitzpatrick can’t improve than suddenly this deal looks like a home run for the Dolphins.