Here are five bold predictions for the Steelers vs. the Jaguars in week 11
Last week’s game went about as well for the Steelers as a fan could have hoped for. The team was consistent despite lacking a running game on offense and the defense held its own despite the occasional mistake. As for the bold predictions I made last week, Ray-Ray McCloud almost got in the end zone on a punt return and Joe Burrow had his fair share of mistakes. Besides that, the game went mostly according to plan which didn’t allow many bold outcomes.
This week, a similar style of game is in front of the team, as the Jaguars are arguably the worst team in the NFL right now not named the Jets. There are holes all over this roster, and with little star talent, this game should be a blowout. Based on the history between these two teams though, this game is likely to be much closer, as Tomlin has never beaten the Jaguars by more than eight points.
With all that said, here are five bold predictions for the Steelers vs. the Jaguars in week 11.
This game is close
As stated above, history has not been kind to the Steelers when they play the Jaguars. While the team has played six games against the Jaguars since Tomlin took over, they have split those games evenly. The only blowout came when the Steelers lost to this team 30-9 in 2017. Assuming this trend holds up, this game will likely be closer than most would anticipate.
While the Jaguars are a team riddled with issues, they have their fair share of talented players as well. This receiving core is diverse and relatively deep while rookie running back James Robinson has been a revelation for this team. That said, inconsistent quarterback play and a pitiful offensive line has caused this team to struggle with moving the ball. The defense is even worse, but players like Josh Allen and Myles Jack have displayed promise in the past.
This game shouldn’t be close on paper, but the history between the teams says otherwise. If the Steelers come out sluggish as they did against the Cowboys, it could allow the Jaguars to take an early lead and set up their running game. The Steelers need to start this game as they ended against the Bengals. If not, don’t be surprised if this game is decided by one score.
Robinson gets stuffed
As mentioned before, the heart and soul of this offense has been Robinson at running back. The rookie has already amassed over 1000 total yards and has proven to be a player that can find the hole. He plays similar to former Steeler Le’Veon Bell, a player that lacks true speed but makes quick decisions at the line to find the best hole to run through. As well, he has been a good safety receiver when being checked down to.
Considering the Steelers rushing defense has struggled as of late, Robinson could be in for a big day. That said, I think he gets stuffed this week. The team’s defense should be prepping to stop the run first and foremost. Against the Jaguars’ weak line and with most of the defensive starters returning this week, this unit should pick back up. I’d expect a strong run defense this week as the team employs similar looks as they did in the earlier weeks.
While Robinson will get his fair share of catches, expect to see his rushing numbers below 50 yards. That would be a huge win for a defense that has been gashed every week since the win over the Ravens. To be frank, if the Steelers can’t stop Robinson this week, the run defense may become a bigger issue than many see it as right now. This is a great chance to get back on track, and I expect the Steelers to dominate the trenches.
The QBs struggle
Yes, that is quarterback’s plural, as I don’t believe either Jake Luton or Ben Roethlisberger will have great games. Starting with Luton, the rookie has looked ok so far this year. That said, the Steelers tend to pounce on rookie quarterbacks, and considering his offensive line is one of the worst in the league, this could be a tough week for him. He may struggle to hit the 100 yards passing mark.
As for Roethlisberger, I expect him to have a better day than Luton, but I think he makes a few critical errors along the way. One of the best traits he has displayed this season is avoiding mistakes, but his history with the Jaguars is quite the opposite. I think he throws an early pick-six and has another pass picked off late. Throw in a fumble off a bad hand-off, and suddenly this game becomes close when it shouldn’t have been.
I think Roethlisberger gets to the 300-yard mark and hits a pair of scores, but two critical interceptions and a fumble allow the Jaguars to hang around. While he looks considerably better than Luton, I don’t think either player has a great week. Expect some sluggish quarterback play this week.
Smith-Schuster lights it up
It was concerning for a while when JuJu Smith-Schuster was not getting the targets he usually did. More concerning is his 9.6 yards per reception he has. While he has become a good and physical presence at receiver, he isn’t making big plays down the field. This week though, Smith-Schuster has the chance to rebound and increase those numbers.
The Jaguars’ current starting slot corner is Tre Herndon, who has been about as close to awful as a player could be. He is credited for giving up nearly 14 yards per completion as well as a horrible QBR of 134.7 when being targeted. This is just the sort of mismatch Roethlisberger can exploit, and Smith-Schuster should benefit from it.
I think Smith-Schuster abuses Herndon and this secondary with eight catches and a score. More importantly, he has a couple of big plays that get his yards per completion up to 15. He looks a lot more like 2018 Smith-Schuster in this game, and he takes over at points to remind everyone that he is, in fact, elite. Expect a great game from Smith-Schuster this week due to the matchup he is presented with.
A new running room
It is no secret that the Steelers have struggled to get their ground game going in recent weeks. The whole unit, from play calling to blocking to the actual running back, has struggled mightily to make any sort of significant plays. Worse yet, this ground game was working well or while, as the team was mixing in other running backs besides James Conner to shake up defenses.
That game plan stopped, and the new one appears to be “let Conner run to the outside” which has led to minimal gains. This week, the Steelers break their traditional bell-cow mold, allowing for Conner and Benny Snell to split reps as runners with nine apiece. Anthony McFarland gets involved with seven rushes of his own. Altogether, the unit rushes for 125 yards and two scores on the day.
Shaking up who is running could help break up the rut this group is in. That said, it will be up to the blockers to get a good push, something they have failed to do recently. Against this soft Jaguars defense though, now may be the time for this unit to take over. Especially if Roethlisberger is making some key mistakes early on, this unit will be key in keeping the Steelers competitive.
While this game appears lopsided on paper, don’t be surprised if a lackluster Steelers team causes this game to be far closer than anticipated. If that’s the case, any of these bold predictions could alter the final outcome. Keep them in mind when the Steelers take the field this Sunday.