While there is still plenty of games to be played, it Smith-Schuster could be playing in his final games with the Steelers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has developed into a quality NFL receiver despite being so young when he entered the league. While his career has been filled with highs and lows, he is still considered a quality player at a premium position. With his contract set to expire, the Steelers will have to make a choice on if he will be worth long-term money. Here are the reasons Smith-Schuster won’t get a second contract with the Steelers.
Gauging his value
Before anyone can determine the odds of a player returning, it is important to guess what their value will be on a new contract. Given his age, talent, and similarities to other who have already been paid, Smith-Schuster’s next contract should be at least 16 million per year. This would put him right in line with Cooper Kupp. Both players have similar styles (big slot receivers) and put up similar stats. This seems like where the negotiations should start price-wise.
That said, with him possibly hitting the open market, that number could easily be higher by a million or two per year. Teams are always in need of talented receivers, and Smith-Schuster would fit well on most rosters. It isn’t unthinkable for a team with excess cap space to bump up his contract offer. I would say then that for the Steelers to sign him, his contract would have to be for the typical five years and for the value to fall between 80-90 million total (16-18 million per year).
Negotiations won’t be easy
Much has been said about how bad the Steelers cap situation maybe next season. With the cap potentially lowering and seemingly the best-case scenario being the cap remaining constant, the Steelers will have to make some tough decisions next year. Smith-Schuster may be one of the top priorities next year, but getting a contract hammered out won’t be easy.
For starters, the Steelers likely won’t be able to franchise tag him. This is due to them having to absorb the 16-million-dollar cap hit he will account for on the tag in whole. If the Steelers sign him to a long-term deal, that first-year cap hit won’t be anywhere near that. Even if they tag him and try to sign him, they will still have to carry him at that franchise tag number for some amount of time.
This means a long-term deal will likely need to be hammered out before free agency begins. This is no easy task for a player that will be signed for considerable money. As well, this means the Steelers will have to only give him competitive offers to try and get a deal done quickly. The other option is the Steelers let him test free agency, but with other teams having more cap space, it would likely end in a bidding war that the Steelers can’t keep up with.
The only thing that is aiding the Steelers is the fact that he has made a good bit of money outside of football. That doesn’t mean he will take any sort of a hometown discount, but if the Steelers give him a market value deal he may be content to take it without exploring what he could earn on the open market. That’s flimsy though, and it would be unwise to expect that from him. When you look at the lack of a franchise tag, it seems unlikely the Steelers will get Smith-Schuster to sign before free agency begins.
Do the Steelers need him?
This flows into the next question: do the Steelers need Smith-Schuster to succeed? As of now, Smith-Schuster is third on the team in receiving yards as fellow receivers Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson have jumped him in terms of yardage. That said, these three are only separated by a total of 29 yards. This ball is getting evenly spread around, meaning that this offense doesn’t rely on one receiver.
While Smith-Schuster undoubtedly takes a lot of coverage off of the other options, is that worth 16 plus million dollars per season on a cap-strapped team? The Steelers still have James Washington who could easily start with the other receivers. Throw in the emergence of Eric Ebron, Ray-Ray McCloud, and this team’s success drafting receivers, and there shouldn’t be a huge hole left if Smith-Schuster were to leave.
The two biggest issues with him leaving are he is a young talent and he is the only primary slot receiver. While McCloud could try to develop more there, he is more of a gadget player and less of a true receiver. What would make more sense is to move Johnson to the inside as his route running and ability to make someone miss could work well on the inside. More than likely though, the team would have to target a slot style receiver in the draft to make up for it.
While this unit would certainly take a hit by losing Smith-Schuster, it seems like it’s a loss they could handle. Throw in a higher round rookie and move some parts around and this group shouldn’t skip a beat. That doesn’t mean the Steelers should ignore Smith-Schuster by any means, but it makes resigning him at that contract number more of a luxury. It would be a loss, but one that the team should be able to overcome.
His 2020 play
As stated above, this Steelers receiving group has seen success from a variety of players. There isn’t a traditional “number one” option, as any of the top three receivers can have a great game. That said, Smith-Schuster has the same number of games with under 50 receiving yards that he has with over 50 yards (five apiece). Even in a group that spreads the ball around as much as the Steelers do, it’s hard to justify those kinds of numbers with a contract as expensive as Smith-Schuster will likely receive.
Worse yet, Smith-Schuster is only averaging 9.2 yards per reception, a paltry number that shows he has struggled more than people may say he has. While part of that number is due to the deep ball struggling, he has also shown some struggles with making guys miss after the catch. While he is a sure target, he isn’t a big-play threat right now, and that severely limits his argument to be paid like a true number one receiver.
No, Smith-Schuster isn’t a bad receiver, and a lot of those numbers are impacted by the scheme the Steelers are using, but it is hard to justify paying a receiver that much money with the numbers he has put up. Again, if the team was flush with cap space, throwing that kind of money at Smith-Schuster would make sense. With so many other needs though the argument to give Smith-Schuster that kind of money is a tough one to justify.
Long-term value
This is where it really gets tough to justify giving Smith-Schuster a five-year contract in a cap-strapped year. More than likely, Ben Roethlisberger will retire during that potential contract, meaning Smith-Schuster will be paired with a new quarterback. While the Steelers will ideally have a new franchise quarterback after Roethlisberger, that is far from a guarantee. It is hard to find a good quarterback, meaning Smith-Schuster will likely be catching passes from a less than desirable player.
We learned last year what Smith-Schuster looks like when a different quarterback is throwing him the ball. While he struggled with injuries last year, he also struggled to make any sort of dynamic impact with a lesser quality quarterback at the helm. He had 552 yards through the air last year, a stat line that is nowhere near worth the kind of money he would be getting paid.
Yes, Smith-Schuster is a valuable player when Roethlisberger is throwing him the ball, but what happens when he retires. If Smith-Schuster reverts back to his 2019 struggles, he won’t be worth the money he will be making. While that is an issue in the future, it is something that has to be considered given the cap issues this team will have to deal with. Smith-Schuster didn’t show up when the team needed him last year, and he will likely see the majority of his contract in a situation like last year.
If the Steelers didn’t have the cap issues that they are set to have, this argument would be vastly different. Smith-Schuster is a great all-around player and seems like a genuinely good player to have in the locker room. Given the cap issues and his role with the team though, the argument to resign Smith-Schuster seems like more of a long shot than a sure thing.