Here are three reasons why it isn’t too early to call Justin Layne a bust for the Steelers
Despite the Steelers signing Steven Nelson to the largest free-agent contract the team had ever given out in the middle of free agency, the team still opted to draft Justin Layne out of Michigan St. in the third round that year. Most analysts praised this move, as Layne was seen as a potential late first-round pick, but his play so far has been less than stellar. He finally got on the defensive field this year but has struggled to make an impact. Here are three reasons that it isn’t too early to call Layne a bust from the 2019 draft.
Defining a “bust”
To be clear, Layne has carved out a solid role on special teams so far in his career. He and James Pierre have become two of the better gunners in the league on punt coverage, and he has used his size and athleticism to excel there. He has been one of the best special teams’ players on this team. Unfortunately, as a third-round pick, the Steelers should expect more from him. If he was a late-round pick, simply becoming a core special teams’ player would be enough. That won’t cut it as a third-round pick though.
Just because his early play has been poor, that doesn’t mean the team should move on from him. They have him under contract for two more years, and he still serves a role for the special teams’ unit. Finally, while he can have a significant turnaround in the future, his early looks have made that seem like a longshot. As of now, he seems like a guy that will serve as a backup defender and quality special teamer. To me, that makes his third-round draft status worthy of the bust status.
His 2020 play
Coming out of Michigan St. Layne was seen as a developmental prospect due to his college conversion from receiver. He has great size at 6’2, 192 lbs., but his college tape showed just how raw he was in coverage. That said, his athleticism made him an intriguing prospect. All of this was apparent during his rookie season, as he didn’t log a single defensive snap, but showed off his athleticism as a gunner on punt returns.
That was ok for his rookie season, as he wasn’t needed on defense. This season though, it was a different story, as Layne was a top backup outside cornerback. This meant that, in theory, if an injury occurred to either Nelson or Joe Haden, Layne would be the next man up. While that hasn’t been the case, he has seen 101 snaps on defense this season (good for 12 percent of the total plays). Unfortunately, he has struggled while on the field.
Despite the limited playing time, Layne has been targeted 11 times in coverage and has allowed 9 catches for 85 yards and a score. Worse yet, he is credited for missing five total tackles on the season despite only having 16 total tackles on the year. Worse yet, he is giving up an abysmal 129.2 rating to quarterbacks when being targeted. That number is the worst on the team for secondary members, and it points to the fact that his coverage ability is still extremely raw.
To be fair, cornerback is typically a slower transition from college to the NFL. Throw in how raw he was seen coming out of Michigan St. and that helps explain some of his early issues. That said, his 2020 season on defense has been far from ideal. The Steelers really could have used a good showing from him despite his limited use on defense.
The play of similar 2019 CBs
Funnily enough, there was a slew of similar style corners (tall, athletic, and outside only corners) taken in the middle second to the third round. Those being the most similar to Layne were, in order of being drafted: Joejuan Williams, Lonnie Johnson, and Jamel Dean. Note: Greedy Williams falls into this category as well, but he hasn’t played in 2020 due to injury, making his inclusion for this comparison worthless.
None have developed into full-time starters yet, but all have arguably played far better than Layne. Williams is the most similar to Layne right now, as he has only played 13 percent of the Patriots snaps. In that time, he has allowed three receptions on seven targets but has allowed 91 yards and a score. The quarterback rating, he is allowing is currently 129.5. That number seems to be higher due to one of those receptions being for a long gain
Johnson has been one of the bright spots for the Texans secondary this season. He’s allowed 22 receptions off 32 targets and hasn’t allowed a score. He is only allowing a quarterback rating of 92.8, not great, but certainly not horrible. Dean has been the best of the group, only allowing 31 receptions off 54 targets and three scores. As well, he is only allowing a quarterback rating of 85.3 when being targeted.
The most similar to Layne has been Williams, but frankly, all three of these guys have outperformed Layne so far this early in their careers. Typically, year two is the one where corners make their big jump. Two of these players have, and Layne isn’t one of them. Can he build upon that? Of course, but the early returns are far from promising.
He isn’t the next man up
This is the worst scenario for Layne, as the Steelers are lauded for their next man up mentality, and Layne isn’t that. Sure, he has seen defensive snaps for starters when they went down with injuries, but the team has opted to play other players ahead of him more often than not. The first case of this was week 10 against the Bengals.
With Mike Hilton injured, Cameron Sutton became the primary slot corner for the defense. This opened up his dime spot for Layne to take over, something he had done sparingly over the past few weeks. Instead, the Steelers turned to rookie safety Antoine Brooks for that role, allowing him to play almost half of the defensive snaps. In turn, Layne only played five total snaps on defense that week.
Even worse, the past two weeks have shown the Steelers trying to keep Layne off the field when both Nelson and Haden missing games with injuries. In both games, Sutton got the starting nod despite being more of a slot corner for most of his Steelers career. Instead of giving Layne, the corner you drafted with the intention of developing him on the outside, the shot to start, they opted to protect him twice. That is an indictment of where the team sees him currently as a player.
While Sutton is a fantastic player and has proved it in the games he has started, the fact that the Steelers are so against giving him the start doesn’t bode well for his future as a starter. Even more so, after Haden left the week 13 game against the Football Team, Layne was bad as a coverage player. He allowed all four of his targets to be caught and gave up a score. The Steelers know what they have with him at this point, and unless he makes a huge jump next year, the team may give up on his defensive potential.
All said, Layne has been a disappointment this season for the Steelers, and his status as a third-round pick is making him a potential bust from an otherwise solid draft class. The team will need to show that they have confidence in him as the next man up, let alone as a potential starter down the road. If the early signs are any inclination though, Layne appears to be a bust for the Steelers.