Here are the three reasons the Steelers won’t win the Super Bowl this season
With the Steelers suffering their first loss of the season this week, it is now time for the team to focus solely on a playoff run and Super Bowl win. The perfect season is no longer possible, but all of that will be forgotten about if the team can overcome the issues they have had and win the big game in February.
That said, there are some clear and obvious flaws that this team is struggling through that may prevent the Steelers from hoisting the Lombardi this season. Here are three reasons the Steelers will not win the Super Bowl in the 2020 season.
Important notes
To clear this up, this isn’t a piece critiquing the AFC second-place 11-2 Steelers because they lost two in a row. Instead, this will be a compilation of the past three Super Bowl victors (the Chiefs, the Patriots, and the Eagles) and seeing what trends can be picked up on from those winners. After looking into it, there are three specific statistical categories that need to be improved upon if this team wants to be a serious contender.
Can they still win the big game without improving one of these categories? Sure, but based on the previous three winners, it would seem more unlikely. The worst part is a lot of these stats were apparent before the team’s first loss to the Football Team. Despite a previously perfect record, this team still had some major flaws. These are the three statistical categories the Steelers need to improve upon to be on a similar level with the previous Super Bowl winners.
Rushing Yards
The NFL has seen a major shift to the passing game in recent years, causing offenses to become higher scoring and more efficient than ever before. That said, two of the past three Super Bowl winners have fielded successful backfields. The Eagles in 2017 had 1787 rushing yards combined from their running backs (this number excludes receiver and quarterback runs). The Patriots in 2018 had a combined 1866 rushing yards for the season.
The only anomaly to this group is the Chiefs, as they compiled 1283 rushing yards from their running backs. That said, they still maintained an electric offense due to the best quarterback in the league Patrick Mahomes commanding their offense. The Steelers don’t have that, as Ben Roethlisberger is certainly a fine quarterback, but he is not Mahomes.
Worse yet, the Steelers rushing attack has been abysmal this season. As of now, the unit has 1158 yards rushing from their running backs and the group is currently on pace to only amass 1424 yards on the year. That number is just below the Chiefs and well below the Patriots and Eagles, something that could limit the team moving forward. This isn’t to say the team needs to have a Derrick Henry like running back, but this entire unit needs to improve if they want to make a Super Bowl run.
Again, the Steelers are a pass-first team, something that is common now in the NFL. They can still move the ball, but they are treading into the one-dimensional range on offense. While the Chiefs were in a similar boat, they had a far better quarterback to bail them out. The team needs to get the ball moving on the ground to balance out their offense. If not, the Steelers could see an early dismissal from the playoffs instead of a Super Bowl win.
Drops
As stated before, the NFL has become a pass-first league. This means offenses move more through the air than ever before. The Steelers are no different, as their offense is predicated on throwing the ball. With an excess of passes comes an excess of drops though, and it is a stat that the Steelers are becoming far too familiar with.
Pro Football Reference didn’t record drops until 2018, so the Eagles can’t be compared here. However, the Patriots only had 25 dropped passes in 2018 while the Chiefs had 28 last year. As of now, the Steelers have an absurd 37 drops on the season and are on pace to record 46 drops by the end of the season. Worse yet, this is a stat that is becoming more prevalent for the team, as they have dropped at least five passes in back to back games.
Considering how dependent the Steelers offense is on throwing the ball, these drops become even more of a killer. It would be one thing if the team could move the ball on the ground, but they obviously haven’t based on the rushing numbers above. This makes drops even worse for the team, as it kills drives and can lead to tipped passes that turn into interceptions. If the Steelers want to have any shot of making and winning the Super Bowl, their receivers need to work on their hands.
AY/A
For those of you that don’t know, this stat is called adjusted yards gained per pass attempt. It takes into account what the average completion is as well as accounting for interceptions, sacks, and touchdowns. What is unique about this stat is that it goes two ways, as it can tell how efficient your offense is at passing (you want that number as high as possible) as well as how efficient your defense is at stopping the pass (you want that number as low as possible). Essentially, the higher your offensive AY/A is, the better their passing game is.
In 2017, the Eagles had a respectable 7.7 AY/A on offense and a really good 5.84 on defense. The Patriots were slightly better on offense, posting a 7.8 AY/A versus their defense giving up 6.53. Far and away, the Chiefs had the best offensive AY/A, as their offense posted an 8.8 while their defense only gave up 6.15.
The Steelers defense is certainly doing their part, only allowing a 5.65 AY/A (a really strong number). The issue is, the offense is only putting up a number of 6.6, almost a full yard lower than the Eagles did in 2017. None of the eventual Super Bowl winners had an offense putting up less than 7.7, which makes the Steelers’ lack of success here that much more concerning.
This simply means the Steelers offense isn’t putting up the points or moving the ball nearly as well as these offenses were. This has been clear on the field recently, as the offense has struggled despite facing teams considered inferior by most analysts. With the Steelers banking on a strong passing game this year, this number needs to get closer to 7.5 if they want to be seen as a legitimate contender. If not, the pass-happy Steelers will struggle to move the ball and in turn, will waste their defensive dominance in this stat.
While the Steelers are still atop the AFC, they have some obvious flaws that need to be addressed if they want to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The loss to Washington in no way has doomed their season, but if the three stats above don’t improve, more than likely the Steelers will be watching the Super Bowl from home.