Alejandro Villanueva has been a fantastic signing, but here’s why the Steelers won’t give him another contract after the 2020 season.
Few Steelers have had as big of a success story as current left tackle Alejandro Villanueva, as the former serviceman converted from defensive line to offensive line, elevated himself from the practice squad, and has become one of the better blockers in the NFL. As well, he has been playing on a massive discount since signing his first extension with the team, and with his contract up next year, he is likely looking for his final big payday. Here are the four reasons he won’t be resigned after this season.
Gauging his market value
As I have done before, it is important to see what Villanueva’s average annual value (AAV) should be based on others at his position. Given his talent and age, he won’t be paid like a Ronnie Stanley, but a recent contract handed out should be seen as his floor. The Broncos locked up Garett Bolles to a huge deal that pays him $17 million a year. While he is certainly having a better season than Villanueva, this was his true first good season as a pro. Given the fact that Villanueva has constantly been good, it would make sense that he gets at least what Bolles got.
More to the point, fellow future free agent Trent Williams’s free-agent projection comes in at $18.2 million a season. Considering Villanueva is having as good of, if not a slightly better season than Williams, it seems fair that he would get a contract of similar value. All said, Villanueva’s market value could be as high as $16-18.5 million per season. Frankly, as a top offensive lineman that has been playing on such a cheap deal, he deserves every penny of it.
Franchise tag
As with the other pending free agents that have been covered, the easiest route to get Villanueva under contract next year is by giving him the franchise tag. The Steelers will be cap-strapped next year, so getting into a free agent bidding war for Villanueva will likely end with him on a new team. As well, unless the team gives him a top contract from the get-go, it wouldn’t make sense for Villanueva to sign, as he could be losing out on millions by settling for a contract from the Steelers.
The NFL luckily categorizes the franchise tag under offensive lineman, which lowers the overall hit of it. That said, it is still projected to be $14.87 million next offseason, which would nearly be impossible for the team to fit under their cap. Even if the two sides agreed to a contract extension, later on, they would still have to account for that hefty cap hit from the tag in the short term. That means making some major cuts and allowing most of the other free agents to walk in order to give him the tag.
This means that more than likely, Villanueva will end up entering free agency at the end of this season and will likely sign a good-sized contract with a new team. Unless he has such a strong desire to remain with the Steelers that he takes a huge discount (not likely to happen), Villanueva will earn a nice pay raise from a different team.
Run blocking
While Villanueva has become one of the better pass protectors in the league, he has never been an exceptional run blocker. Though this has worked when the rest of the line was opening lanes for the running backs, it has become an issue when the rest of the line is struggling. It is no secret that the Steelers’ running game has been a weak point, and a huge reason for this is how poor the blockers have been this season.
With the Steelers likely adding a new running back to start for them in 2021, they will want some stronger run blockers to pair with him. While Villanueva is a top offensive lineman on the team, they opt for a younger and cheaper tackle that can provide more of a push when the team runs. Villanueva is a crafty pass blocker, but the team may save their money and seek out a better run blocker.
This doesn’t mean that Villanueva is a bad tackle. He is arguably having his best season as a starter this year, as he has rarely committed a penalty and has done well with limiting pressures and sacks. But the proof is there with the run blocking, as the Steelers rushing attack is one of the worst in the league. While that is more of a unit problem, it still doesn’t mean that Villanueva is excused from the problem. The team will likely begin transitioning to a run-heavy team with the decline of Ben Roethlisberger, meaning they may look to invest in better run blockers.
Age is a factor for the Steelers left tackle
While Villanueva entered the league at an older age, meaning he should have some better tread on his tires as a result, it still doesn’t help that he is 32 years old. As stated before, the Steelers are getting ready to transition to life without Roethlisberger, and that likely means a few lean years. Unfortunately, that will likely encompass the remainder of the good years that Villanueva has left, making his return to the team less likely.
To be fair, the NFL has seen offensive linemen play well into older ages. Since they don’t rely on speed and athleticism, they can have careers well into their mid-thirties. That said, Father Time still comes for everyone, and Villanueva will be no different. While he may be able to remain as a top tackle on a short two- or three-year deal, he likely won’t as effective of a player on a longer deal.
The fact that his age would dictate a shorter contract ends up going back to the money issue. With the Steelers cap-strapped next season, they will need to cooperate longer deals to lower the first-year cap hit. Villanueva’s first-year charge will be substantially higher on a two-year deal than it would be on a five-year deal. This means he may be harder to fit under the cap next year, making his odds of getting resigned even less likely.
Other options at tackle
This is honestly the final nail in the coffin for Villanueva. While there is no other offensive tackle on this roster better than him, the team still has two serviceable options that they can rely on. Since taking over at right tackle, Chukwuma Okorafor has shown that he has what it takes to start in this league. Given his athleticism he has, he could be a natural fit at left tackle as well. While it would be a downgrade, financially, the Steelers may not have a choice.
This would leave a hole at right tackle, but no one should forget about Zach Banner as an option there. He initially won the job this season before tearing his ACL in the opening game. Given his injury, he will likely return to the team on an uber-cheap, one-year deal. It would be safe to assume he could regain his starting role on the right side. As well, the Steelers will likely add a tackle in the draft to keep some pressure on both of the young starters.
Again, relying on either Okorafor or Banner over Villanueva is a downgrade, but given what their difference in salaries will be, it will likely be a necessary move. The Steelers try and get younger and cheaper on the line while Villanueva scores on a final payday. It will be tough to see him leave, but there may not be much the team can do.
Villanueva is one of the true success stories in the NFL, and his Steelers career should be remembered for how good he developed in a short period of time. That said, he deserves to be paid as one of the top tackles in the league, and the Steelers won’t be able to afford him at that price. More than likely, Villanueva is playing his final games for the Steelers this season.