With the Steelers having a huge hole at running back, here are the four reasons they should look at Trey Sermon to fill their needs in the 2021 NFL Draft.
It is fair to say that the Steelers will have a large number of holes on this roster next offseason. When you look at the areas that they have struggled with, the talent set to be free agents, and the team’s cap issues they will have, and suddenly this offense looks like it may be in dire straits. A lot of talk has gone into drafting a running back as the team will need a new starter. While this class is filled with good running back options, the Steelers need to keep an eye on Trey Sermon after his recent performances. Assuming his injury in the Championship game isn’t serious, here are the four reasons he should be a draft target for the Steelers.
Big Ten connection
While the draft is always up the chance every year depending on the talent pool, the Steelers certainly have some trends that can be followed. For example, since the 2011 draft, the team has selected 16 players out of the Big Ten, a sign that they trust their observations from this section of college football. It makes sense, as these games are far closer to Pittsburgh than games in the Midwest or out on the West coast, making scouting these players easier.
Considering Sermon now has a season at Ohio State almost finished, he is fully eligible to fall into another Big Ten draft selection. No, the Steelers won’t completely determine who they pick based on what division they played in at college but playing in one as popular as the Big Ten has been will help. As well, with scouts’ travel potentially limited due to the pandemic, the fact that Sermon played closer to Pittsburgh helps. While a small side note, Sermon playing in the Big Ten is a major help to his Steelers draft potential.
Recent Play
Sermon is on one of College Football’s most unprecedented tears over the past three games. Despite playing highly ranked Clemson, Northwestern, and a pretty bad Michigan State team, Sermon compiled 636 yards rushing and four scores. Add in his reception yards and Sermon is close to totaling 700 total yards over three games. Considering two of those teams ranked inside the top 15 makes this feat even more impressive.
While his past three games have clearly been the best of his career, it doesn’t mean that he was dormant throughout his college career until now. While never as dominant as he has been, Sermon has always been a quality committee back. Both Ohio State and Oklahoma have used him well in a rotation. While it is a limited sample size, his recent play is more likely due to him being given the opportunity to finally be a bell cow.
Finally, if you have watched Sermon play recently, his style of running is extremely physical. He is consistently lowering his shoulder and throwing guys out of his way in order to get more yards. That power style running is exactly what the Steelers look for in their starting running back. It looks like he has some burst as well on tape, meaning that he could be more than that typical plodding power back like Benny Snell. His tape, especially the recent tape, makes him seem like a great fit with the Steelers.
He had a disappointing championship game as he only got to log one carry before leaving the game injured. This put an end to his impressive play over the past few weeks, but it doesn’t mean he should just be written off. As long as his injury isn’t serious, he should still be a realistic target for the Steelers in the draft.
Limited carries in college
While talent and play style are undoubtedly the most important factors in drafting a running back, their usage in college is also important. Running backs break down earlier and often due to their constant abuse as a player. On most plays, they are getting hit which over time wears down a running back. That’s why you see such an early drop off in NFL backs, as their bodies wear down and once, they get into their late 20’s, they typically drop off.
This means that getting fewer carries in college is actually a huge plus for a running back. We’ve seen heavy usage push talented backs out of the first round. Derrick Henry, the best pure back in the NFL, was a second-round pick partly due to the 600 plus carries he had in his three years. Jonathan Taylor last year was a similar story. Meanwhile, Josh Jacobs flashed in limited opportunities. He never had a 1000 yard season, but the talent he displayed despite only carrying the ball about 250 times led to him being a first-round pick.
As for Sermon, his senior status makes his total carries higher than some, but it isn’t astronomical. He has only carried the ball 455 times, with a sizable chunk of those coming in the recent weeks. While this is slightly more than Jacobs had coming out, it isn’t by much considering Sermon has played an extra year. That limited usage in college makes him a more appealing pro prospect as he will likely have more longevity than a back who has carried the ball 600 plus times.
In comparison to an early draft darling for a lot of fans, Najee Harris has carried the ball 638 times already. That means more wear and tear as he has been the bell cow back for Alabama over the past two years. While his tape is slightly more impressive, Sermon may last longer in the NFL due to his more limited college usage. Harris may be the better player earlier in his career, but Sermon could realistically play longer. As well, considering where both players are likely to be drafted, Sermon should be the better value.
Draft projection
This is one of the best arguments for Sermon being a good Steelers prospect. His style matches the Steelers’ preferences and his usage is less than many players at his position. While that helps, his current draft projection is in the top of the fourth round according to The Draft Network. While it may go up after his athletic testing, Sermon will at best be a late second pick. More than likely, especially with the injury, Sermon should end up getting picked somewhere in the third. Meanwhile, Harris is currently graded as a late first-round pick, meaning the Steelers would have to invest significantly more if they opted for Harris.
While running the ball has value in an offense, taking a running back in the first has a lot of risks. As stated above, this is a position that wears down quickly, and the odds of a running back getting a second contract from the team that drafted them isn’t that great. The prospect of your first-round pick not being on your team in four to five years despite solid production is less than ideal. Meanwhile, if you get four years of good production from a third-rounder before, they leave, that is much more tolerable.
This isn’t to say that Sermon is better than a Harris or a fellow first-round back, but he will more than likely present a better value than any of them. As well, given his lighter and more spread out usage, Sermon could realistically play longer. This isn’t the early 2000’s anymore where having a successful bell-cow back is necessary. If the Steelers can get a value pick like Sermon over an early-round running back, it makes far more sense.
While his recent surge in production has Sermon’s stock skyrocketing, he seems like a great fit for a Steelers team that will be looking for a new running back. His overall production is there despite limited touches at the college level and his value should be lower than some of the top options. While there may be better overall backs in this draft, the Steelers need to take a closer look at Sermon as a day two pick in the draft.