The Steelers could be looking to take a running back as early as round one this April, but here’s why Najee Harris is not the answer.
It’s hard to scroll through Twitter these days without seeing some Steelers fan post a video or explain their praise for Alabama running back Najee Harris. At 6’2” and 230 pounds, Harris resembles a young Le’Veon Bell in many ways. He’s a patient, yet powerful runner with a combination of savvy moves with the ball in his hands, and his production jumps off the page. Harris compiled 1,891 scrimmage yards over 13 games in 2020 in addition to scoring 30 touchdowns.
But despite all of the praise for one of the nation’s best running backs, there are a handful of reasons why the Steelers would be wise to pass on him with the 24th overall pick this year. Najee Harris could turn out to be a very good running back for somebody, but here’s why he should not be Pittsburgh’s first-round pick.
Massive college workload
As far as production goes, Najee Harris has everything you could ask for. He has averaged 6.0 yards per carry on the ground over his careers and he has multiple seasons of over 1,200 yards rushing and at least 25 receptions in the passing game. However, his massive workload in college should be more than concerning to NFL scouts.
Harris’ 718 total touches are almost as many as Le’Veon Bell had (749) prior to entering the league. While this may not seems like a big deal and you probably won’t see the effects of this until several years down the road, running backs with massive college workloads have been proven to wear out quicker in the NFL. Look how quickly Bell went from an All-Pro running back to a nameless face in the backfield. Harris could have a similarly short shelflife in the NFL.
Harris turns 23 years old in March
Age is but a number, and 23 hardly seems old. However, there are certain positions that many teams usually avoid drafting older players, and running back is one of them. While there isn’t really a correlation between taking a 23-year-old quarterback or offensive lineman and having a higher bust rate, younger skill players (mainly wide receivers and running backs) have a history of higher success rates when transitioning to the NFL.
This is largely because the best players in the nation typically show how dominant they are at a very early age. Let’s use Le’Veon Bell as an example again. Though he did have a concerning amount of touches prior to entering the league, Bell had a very successful junior season at Michigan State when he was just 20 years old – nearly two full years younger than Harris.
There are obviously many more examples of this. In recent years, most of the best skill players like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown, A.J. Brown, Miles Sanders have all been 20-21 years old when drafted. Even Harris’ former teammate Josh Jacobs – who was drafted two years ago – is younger than Harris. There’s not always a correlation with age, but typically, players who can dominate college football at a younger age are more apt to do so in the NFL.
Lacks breakaway speed
Harris has all the traits to be an ideal second-round pick: he’s powerful and elusive with value as a receiver. However, one thing that is not in the cards for the Alabama running back is breakaway speed. According to DraftScout.com, Harris is projected to run a 4.52-second 40-yard dash, and that his low time could be as poor as a 4.60.
Clearly, this doesn’t mean that Harris can’t be a feature running back in the NFL – I fully expect him to carry the load for whichever team he lands on. But the fact that he isn’t going to have breakaway speed is concerning to me. Compare him for a moment to Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor last year. Taylor averaged over 2,000 rushing yards per season in college while running for 6.7 yards per carry. While his workload was concerning, he tested as a 90th percentile athlete, according to Three Sigma Athlete, and proved his explosion with a 4.39 40-yard dash at the Combine.
Even with elite college production and elite athletics traits to go with a prototype running back body (5’10” and 226 pounds), Taylor still wasn’t taken until the 41st overall pick in the second round. Meanwhile, Cam Akers was taken with the 52nd pick as a 20-year-old workhorse running back, and Dobbins went at pick 55. Realistically, this is the range that Najee Harris should fall in.
Harris is still just a running back, and Steelers need offensive line help first
Apart from his lack of breakaway speed, Najee Harris is the complete package at running back. However, he is still just a running back, and history shows us that we would be wise to avoid taking this position in the first round altogether. Even some recent running backs who were deemed ‘elite’ prospects end up falling well short of expectations.
Leonard Fournette is a perfect example. Fournette was a good enough prospect that he was drafted with the 4th overall pick in 2017. Yet he couldn’t even make it to the end of his rookie contract because his play was so subpar. Most of the best running backs in the league right now were drafted in the second round or later, and many backs who were taken in the first round never live up to lofty expectations.
Running backs can only ever be as good as their situation and the guys up front leading the way for them. While there will clearly be a big difference between Harris and the group of less-than-stellar running backs the Steelers have right now, the offensive line needs to be upgraded before we can expect true success from any running back.
I don’t dislike Najee Harris; I simply dislike the idea of taking him with the 24th overall pick in the draft. All of these factors show that Harris should be taken in the second round, but somebody is likely to bite on him sooner. Let’s hope it’s not the Steelers.