While the Steelers will select a running back, they would be wise to avoid Jefferson out of Oregon State this year.
The Steelers have an undeniable need at running back heading into the draft, and while an early-round running back is in play, the team could target one of the many mid-round options. A player the Steelers reportedly have talked with is Oregon State’s productive running back Jermar Jefferson. While I am all for the team targeting a running back outside of the first and even as late as the fourth round, Jefferson would be a hard pass based on his play style.
Metrics:
5’10, 206 lbs.
2020 stats: 925 total yards, 7 scores
Tape studied: Oregon, California, Washington St.
While as a prospect I am not particularly high on Jefferson, he was an extremely productive back in a good program. He only played in six games this year yet rushed for over 850 yards and averaged an impressive 6.5 yards per carry. Those numbers seem good enough to get him drafted somewhere in the middle of the pack, especially when you consider how good he was as a rookie (1500 total yards and 12 scores). His projection seems to be somewhere between the third round and fourth round.
Hurting his stock now seems to be his athletic profile though, as he tested as a below-average athlete. Seen as somewhat of a power back, Jefferson measured in rather small and light. Worse yet, his forty time was only 4.6, a low time especially when you consider how small he was measured as. His explosion and agility scores came in low as well. While his tape will be important to see how he overcomes these deficiencies, his testing this offseason certainly did him no favors.
Jefferson’s Pros
I’m going to be blunt with this: I see little upside with a prospect like Jefferson. His best trait seems to be his vision, as he can decipher pretty well at the line and find a lane to run through. As well, once he sees a hole, he seems to hit it hard. While the patience style of Le’Veon Bell works behind a great line, being able to read a defensive front and attack what is given you quickly would better fit the Steelers’ current line.
As well, Jefferson runs with good balance. He doesn’t possess an elite “break the tackle” ability, but he can bounce off of bad tackles with relative ease and continue to move forward and gain more yards. He won’t kill a defender in open space, but he can do enough to gain some extra yardage down the road. While no Javonte Williams, who is nearly impossible to get down in space, Jefferson can still serve well enough in the role.
Beyond that, Jefferson is pretty solid in most phases. He lacks a true elite trait (which is a negative, granted) but has jack-of-all traits feel to him. He can break off a long run despite not having speed and he can truck a defender despite not being built as a true power back. He should be able to carve out a role in the NFL, but he doesn’t seem like a true starter.
Jefferson’s Negatives
The worst trait with Jefferson is his lack of ability to create on his own. While every running back benefits from a great line, elite backs can still make the most out of nothing. Jefferson doesn’t do that. If there is no obvious hole, Jefferson seems to get logged down and essentially waste the play. Not every play will require Jefferson to make something out of nothing, granted, but it would have been better had he been able to craft big plays on his own.
His game speed isn’t great either. Frankly, he looks every bit of the 4.6 that he ran, and even on his long runs, it seems like he never really hits that next gear. I struggle to see him making big runs at the NFL when going up against better athletes. While elite speed isn’t necessary for a running back, different traits would need to balance out the lack of speed. He doesn’t have any elite traits to compensate for this.
His hands were not great either. While he caught a handful of passes, he had a few drops. Even some of his catches seemed like almost drops. He doesn’t do anything special as a route runner either. While a quarterback can dump a pass off to him in a pinch, he will never be a threat as a receiver.
Lastly, and this seems like the nail in the coffin, Jefferson’s lack of elite traits shows up. He tries to push the pile but usually can get stoop up easily. He tries to break away from the defense but gets caught. He tries to make a defender miss in space, but he just doesn’t make it. If he was having these issues in college, his prospects as a pro are poor. In each game I studied, I constantly found myself shaking my head. He has the want to be a good complete back, but his lack of traits always left me disappointed in him.
Jefferson’s Projection
While I do believe Jefferson will carve out a role in the league, I doubt it will be as a conventional starting running back due to his limitations. At the end of the day, he seems like a depth guy more than anything. His best fit would be in a committee backfield and one where there is a set starter and pass-catching option. Here, he could rotate in and see the field for 3-5 runs a game to rest the usual starter. He doesn’t scream starter to me though.
To emphasize this point as well, his forty time isn’t the reason I’m doubting his role. Williams ran an identical time, and like Jefferson, his tape showed a lack of true long speed. Williams makes up for it though with great agility and by being nearly impossible to bring down in space. He is great in space which helps turn runs that look like lost causes into decent gains. Jefferson’s tape was lacking in this area.
While the Steelers showed interest in him, he isn’t a name I would touch until the sixth round or later. He doesn’t offer the Steelers anything that they don’t already have. Benny Snell is a better power back, Anthony McFarland Jr. is a better change of pace option, and, dare I say it, Jaylen Samuels is a better pass-catching back (albeit just barely). If the Steelers had a true starter, Jefferson would make sense late as a serviceable backup. The team needs a starter though, making it hard for me to imagine the team going with him in the 2021 draft.