Just how effective will Steelers RB Najee Harris be as a rookie?

An in-depth study of the position shows just what the value is of the Steelers selecting a first-round running back in the 2021 draft.

I know that I share some different thoughts than with many of you reading this right now in terms of the Steelers selecting Najee Harris in the first round. While Harris looks like a good prospect, the issue with him going in the first is just how important run games have become to NFL success. Gone are the days of needing a 1500-yard rusher to succeed anymore. An efficient running game certainly helps a team, but it doesn’t mean Harris suddenly turns this team into a top competitor. Here is an in-depth breakdown of every first-round running back and how it has affected their Super Bowl chances.

A reference for the Steelers

Attached below is the study that I conducted. The first sheet looks at every back that has been taken in the first round since 2010. The second sheet looks at every Super Bowl-winning team since 2010 and who their leading rusher was for the season.

This is the information that will be used and referenced during this study. Before diving in though, let me once again make this clear: Harris looks like a good running back prospect. No, I don’t think he will be a bust in this league, and he should improve the team’s overall running game. He better, as the team invested a first-round pick in him. The issue is, just how important is having a first-round running back in the modern NFL. Personally, and as will be argued in this study, a first-round running back does little in terms of winning long term in the NFL.

Improvement of the Steelers running game

Looking at the stats, and this one shouldn’t surprise anyone: taking a running back in the first round tends to improve the rushing game for an offense. This shouldn’t be shocking, as teams’ first-round picks are more often than not expected to make an instant impact. This stands true with teams that have taken a running back in the first round, as they get those players on the field early and expect instant results.

The Steelers, thus, should expect that jump in the run game with Harris at the helm. Specifically, if this follows the averages that were put in place from this study, the team’s total rushing output should increase by 300 rushing yards. This means expect the Steelers to have around 1650 rushing yards, as it would be a 300-yard increase from what the team had in 2020. As a reference, that would put the team 25th overall in team rushing.

For those estimating what Harris’s stat line will look like his rookie year, a history-based number would be around 1100 total yards and between 7-8 touchdowns. As well, expect Harris to miss at least a game, and likely two, as the running back position is one that deals with a large deal of injury due to the physical nature of the position. While that would be a fine rookie year, note that it wouldn’t suddenly launch the Steelers into the upper echelon of rushing teams.

Projected increase in wins for the Steelers

This was actually a surprising trend based on the teams that have selected running backs in the first round. Based on the study done, teams actually saw an average increase of 1.5 wins in the year following taking a rookie running back. For a Steelers team that won 12 games last season, winning an additional one to two games would have been huge.

That numbers should be taken for a grain of salt though. For starters, this only focuses on the addition of a first-round running back and has no other consideration to players added, subtracted, or the general strength of schedule for a team. As well, some of the biggest jumps that occurred came from teams that had extremely low records the year below. In those cases, it was hard to imagine that team doing any worse, as the only way for the team to go was up.

There were cases where having that first-round running back really did make the difference for the team during their rookie year. Those cases were Leonard Fournette (2017) and Ezekiel Elliott (2016), as both backs turned their teams from one of the worst in the league to a playoff team in one year. Elliot is truly the unique case, as while Fournette was great year one, the Jaguars as a whole were built around running as evident by the fact that he only accounted for half the rushing yards of the team that season. So, in essence, Elliot in his rookie season was the only prospect that made the team good enough to make a playoff run.

So, the question becomes two-fold. For starters, is Harris a good enough prospect to be that difference maker that Elliot was his rookie season? While he certainly should be good, Elliot was a far better prospect coming out of Ohio St. The next question is then, is Harris good enough to make up for the losses the Steelers suffered this offseason? While he will undoubtedly make the rushing offense better, it seems unlikely that he is enough to overcome the losses the team saw this offseason. The Steelers could still make the playoffs, but it seems unlikely Harris improves their overall record.

Steelers’ playoff impact

Let’s start getting into the really important areas to focus on here: playoff appearances and wins. This is where the study starts to really go against the idea of taking a running back in the first. Starting off, besides the running backs that are still on their first deals, the average length of time that a first-round running back spends on their original team is a smidge under 4.5 years. That is to be expected, as once again running backs shelf lives aren’t long.

So, taking that average into consideration, the average number of playoff games that a first-round running back played in with their original team averaged out to a paltry two total playoff games. Mark Ingram had the most, playing in eight playoff games during his coincidentally longest eight years he spent with his originally drafted team. While that is better than the averages, it still isn’t like having a first-round running back meant the team suddenly was a regular team in the playoffs.

Worse yet is the playoffs win, as they averaged out to only one total playoff win from the time that a rookie running back was drafted to when they left their original team. Most of these running backs found decent success in either their rookie seasons or the long term. Take Doug Martin, the second-best rookie back, who delivered zero playoff wins and appearances for his team. Even some backs that have registered a playoff win (Rashaad Penny) wasn’t his team’s lead rusher for that win.

The most damaging stat in the case of the Steelers is that only seven (less than half) of the teams that drafted a running back in the first round made the playoffs in that first season. For a team that is likely about to go through a bit of a low period as Ben Roethlisberger likely retires after this season, getting into the playoffs this year and winning this year is key. Those numbers aren’t supported by taking a first-round running back.

Steelers’ Super Bowl hopes

Finally, the goal of every team every year is to reach and win a Super Bowl. Despite the losses this team suffered in the offseason, the Steelers are still hoping to make it to, and win the Super Bowl. In the study done, only one first-round running back, Sony Michel, delivered a Super Bowl win to his original team. To this point, none of the first-round backs drafted since 2010 besides him have won a Super Bowl.

Looking at the Super Bowl backs themselves, only two running backs that have led their team in rushing and won the Super Bowl have been first-round picks. Michel was one, and the other was Marshawn Lynch, who won with the Seahawks and not his original drafting team (the Bills). There have been double the number of undrafted running backs that have led their team in rushing than first-round running backs to do so.

That doesn’t mean a team can’t just run the ball, but it means that it needs to be effective when it does it. All of those lead rushers averaged 850 yards between them in terms of what their rushing yards were that year. That means a team doesn’t need a Derrick Henry type of monster to get to the Super Bowl. In the modern NFL, an elite running back isn’t the recipe for Super Bowl success, it is an efficient one mixed in with a dominant passing game.

I didn’t write this to say that the Harris will be a bust with the Steelers, or that you even have to dislike the pick. These are the historical numbers; I’ve constructed my own opinion on the matter, and you can construct your own as well. Know that when anyone says that a running back in the first isn’t valuable, it is due to trends like these that point towards the devaluation of a first-round running back. I hope Harris kills it his rookie season for the team, but I’m doubtful that even if he does it translates to playoff and Super Bowl success based on these numbers.