The Steelers apparently have their guy at tight end, but there are a multitude of ways that his rookie season could ultimately play out.
The Steelers on paper got great value when they selected Pat Freiermuth in the second round of the NFL Draft. The second-best tight end in the class, Freiermuth has the build and talent of a complete tight end, something the team hasn’t truly had since Heath Miller. He needs some work on his blocking and his overall athleticism isn’t elite, but Freiermuth has the makings of a future starter in this league. That said, his rookie season has a range of positive and negative outcomes that could occur. Here are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for Freiermuth’s rookie season.
How a best/worst-case scenario works
While this is all projection and speculation, this tries to take as realistic of an approach as possible. Obviously, the best-case scenario for Freiermuth is that he looks like a young Travis Kelce and has a season that rivals those stats. Likewise, the worst-case scenario is that he looks completely lost on the field, slow, can’t catch a ball, or is injured for the entire year. Sure, both of those cases are possible, but they aren’t entirely likely.
Instead, the focus will be on what the Steelers can realistically expect from Freiermuth in his first year. Taken into account will be the possibilities of injury as well as the fact that tight end is one of the more difficult positions to transition to from the college level. With all of that said, here are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for Freiermuth’s rookie season.
Best-case scenario
Freiermuth enters Steelers’ camp with one thing on his mind. It isn’t to be a dynamic receiver or to make a flashy catch, it’s to dominant the blocking sled. Reports come out early that he is doing just that, as he is noted for his physicality and not just willingness but want to improve his blocking. He keeps those rumors afloat during the preseason, as he absolutely throws around the bench defenders from the other teams.
He doesn’t begin the season as the starter, and his lone two starts come from an Eric Ebron injury, but he still sees the field regularly. He finally gives the team a capable two tight-end package to use and use regularly. Both he and Ebron can be effective as receivers while Freiermuth can also throw his weight around as a blocker. This in turn creates a more dynamic offense.
His stats aren’t gaudy, but they don’t have to be. A great rookie season involves Freiermuth doing two things. The first is showcasing he can be a blocker, something that if he can’t do will absolutely derail his rookie season. As well, I want to see him score in the red zone. His physicality allows him to make the tough catch, so seeing him get involved in the endzone is a must.
No, he doesn’t need elite receiving yards. He gets them sure, in his two starts he has 125 receiving yards and a score, but at the end of the day, the Steelers will turn to Ebron as the receiving threat at tight end this season. He is superior in that field at this point. Freiermuth has to show that he can excel everywhere else to see the field.
No, he doesn’t light the world on fire year one, but he has Jesse James-like receiving numbers (in his final year with the Steelers). In his limited role, he registers close to 400 receiving yards and scored four times. He never unseats Ebron, but he registers roughly half of the offensive snaps, signifying that the team wants him on the field. One of the primary reasons for that is that he is a road grading blocker that opens lanes for Najee Harris. Again, elite receiving stats aren’t needed for a great rookie season. Instead, a good showing as a blocker and enough tape as a receiver make him the clear-cut starter in 2022.
Worst-case scenario
Freiermuth enters camp with fans already chanting his name (as is tradition with tight ends). He has a quiet camp and preseason, but with little competition, he easily claims the second tight end role. The team looks to get him involved early, as he plays in 60 percent of the week one snaps. Unfortunately, a whiffed block leads to a Benny Snell fumble at the goal line and a late-game fourth-down drop ends the Steelers’ hope of a comeback.
The season doesn’t get much better from there, as Freiermuth continues to struggle in the receiving department. His lack of athleticism is worse than expected, as a seam pass is easily picked off by Patrick Queen as he just couldn’t keep up with the linebacker when the team plays the Ravens. Resolved that he isn’t the go-to receiver yet, the Steelers still try to play him in run-heavy sets. Unfortunately, he hasn’t found the strength or the technique yet to be effective there.
His best game comes midway in the season, as he registers three receptions for 23 yards and a touchdown (his only one of the season). The issue is, he is still missing blocks and negatively affecting the run game. Since he isn’t the receiving threat that Ebron is, the team can’t justify getting him onto the field regularly. Kevin Radar begins getting more burn as he is the better blocker, and Freiermuth fades from the offensive game plan.
The season ends with a very last year Vance McDonald stat line: 14 receptions for 85 yards and the lone touchdown. With his blocking being just as big of a question as to his receiving, the Steelers go into the offseason unsure what to do at tight end. Freiermuth doesn’t solidify himself as a starter, and the team prepares to add competition.
Final result
At the end of the day, it seems likely that Freiermuth’s rookie season falls somewhere in between these two results. Those expecting him to be the traditional starter this season will likely be disappointed. Ebron has his faults, yes, but he is established and is a dynamic receiving threat. Freiermuth isn’t there yet and will lack the athleticism to compete with Ebron as a receiver.
Instead, look for him to make his mark as a blocker. If he can push some defenders around in camp, he can see playing time as a number two. Playing time will yield results naturally, but if he can’t hold a block then the team can’t justify putting him out on the field. Assuming he is an adequate blocker, I think a Cole Kmet stat line is in the realm of possibility. Between 200-300 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns seems like a realistic goal.
Freiermuth was one of the better picks for the Steelers in this draft class, but his instant role will be inhibited by Ebron being on the roster. Long-term, he seems destined to be the team’s go-to option at tight end. Until then, look to see him make an impact as a blocker and as a red-zone target.