Diontae Johnson is heavily involved in the Steelers offense and presents a potential breakout player in fantasy football this year.
Despite an up and down season last year for Diontae Johnson, he showed flashes of being an elite wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Injuries and drops plagued him throughout the season, but Ben Roethlisberger showed a continued willingness to get the ball his way.
Johnson is entering his third season in the NFL and is coming at a discount in fantasy football drafts due to the presence of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool on the Steelers offense, in addition to his issues with drops and injuries. However, if he can limit the drops and stay healthy, he seems poised for a breakout, as the Steelers proved that they can provide three fantasy-relevant wide receivers last year.
Opportunity
One of the top things to look for in fantasy football is a player’s target share. When looking at target share, it’s impossible to ignore Johnson or his involvement in the Steelers’ offense. Despite missing one game, and leaving two others early due to injury, Johnson still finished eighth in the NFL in targets with 144. With that kind of target share, Johnson is clearly a player that should be targeted in all fantasy leagues, especially considering that is with time missed via injury, the number could rise even more if he stays healthy.
Roethlisberger clearly trusts Johnson despite his issues with drops, and this should continue this season. Despite the presence of Smith-Schuster and Claypool, Johnson was usually Roethlisberger’s most targeted receiver whenever he was healthy.
Average Draft Position
With so many big names at wide receiver, Johnson comes at a discounted price tag, while presenting WR1 upside in fantasy. While he doesn’t possess the track record or superstar seasons of top-ranked fantasy wide receivers such as Davante Adams, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, or Tyreek Hill, he absolutely has the upside to be a back end WR1 if he can stay healthy.
Johnson is a great option for anyone who plays fantasy football, but particularly for those that wait on wide receivers in the draft. Johnson’s likely to last until picks 40-50, which in a 12-team league likely represents a fourth-round selection.
Those who look to secure two running backs and a tight end could end up with a bargain selecting Johnson to be their WR1, before filling out their wide receiver room with the plethora of options at the deepest position in fantasy. Considering where he will likely be going in fantasy drafts this year, Diontae Johnson could be had for good value.
Upside
Very few wide receivers who are ranked in the fourth-round range possess the same upside as Johnson, which could make him the steal of the draft. And, the thing that makes him even more appealing is that he has a high floor as well, as evidenced by last year. Last year despite missing parts of three games he finished as a middle to back-end WR2 after catching 88 passes for 923 yards and seven touchdowns.
Setting last year’s value as a reasonable floor if injuries continue, while adding in his immense floor makes Johnson a steal any time after round 3, and it’d be understandable to grab him a little earlier if there are others in the league who are high on him as well. If healthy it would not at all be a surprise to see exceed 100 catches and 1,100 yards.
While drops were an issue last season, many were on short passes that came on a lack of concentration, as he would look upfield before he had caught the ball. After hearing from the critics, and having time in the offseason to work on it, Johnson’s drops should decrease from the number they were at last year.
Increased efficiency, combined with an improved running game should make Johnson more efficient both in catch percentage and the amount of room he has to run with the ball. Expect a breakout from Johnson this year, and make sure to get him in fantasy football, especially in dynasty leagues, before his value skyrockets.
Season Prediction: 112 catches, 1274 yards, and 9 touchdowns