With so much riding on the Steelers first-round pick this season, this is a realistic best-case and worst-case scenario for Harris.
The Steelers made the not-so-surprising decision to draft Najee Harris in the first round of this past draft. While there are some questions as to the value that presents, no one should be projecting him not to start by week one. For those that play fantasy or are curious about what his rookie season could look like, it would be wise to temper expectations. With all of that said, here is a best-case and worst-case scenario for Harris’s rookie season.
How a best/worst case works
When breaking down Harris’s rookie season, it should be noted that this takes as realistic of an approach as possible. The worst-case scenario is that Harris looks like a bumbling fool while the best-case scenario is that he rivals the likes of Derrick Henry and rushes for over 2000 yards during the season. While both options are, in theory, possible, neither are exactly realistic when it comes to what will likely happen.
What will be taken into account, on the other hand, are some of the more likely scenarios. For example, with the running back position, it is rare for any player to make it a full season without getting injured, thus Harris getting injured is in play (albeit not a season-ending injury). As well, the Steelers offense is built to throw the ball and has a rebuilt offensive line. Thus factors will be considered when trying to come up with Harris’s final best- and worst-case scenarios.
Best-case scenario
The best-case scenario for Harris is that the Steelers line shows up to camp as an overall improved run-blocking unit. Zach Banner gets his chance to show his talent that was taken away from him last season and Kevin Dotson showcases why he was one of the biggest draft steals last season. While this group will likely take a few steps back in terms of pass protection, hopefully, the unit gains some physicality and push in the run game.
Harris himself comes into camp motivated and in shape, and it shows in the Hall of Fame game when he squares up against Jabril Cox and runs through him in route to his first of two scores in the first quarter. His hype continues to build during the preseason until he runs for a measly 53 yards and no scores in the Steelers’ week one loss.
That lights a fire inside of Harris though, and outside of the week 14 game that he misses due to a sore ankle, Harris never again has below 50 yards rushing. He goes on an early tear, rushing for over a hundred yards in the next three games. He slows down a bit but continues to impose his will on defenses as the Steelers finally have a capable back at the helm.
This all culminates during the second game against the Browns. With both teams in the playoff hunt, the Browns defense gets to Ben Roethlisberger early and forces two interceptions. The Steelers respond by giving the ball to Harris 35 times, and he does well, gaining 180 yards and another 50 through the air. Add in his three total scores and it is by far his best rookie performance.
Finally, and arguably his biggest contribution, Harris becomes the go-to option at the goal line. An area the Steelers have struggled with, Harris becomes a hammer at the line consistently finds a physical way to score. He ends the season with 14 total touchdowns.
Ultimately, Harris’s best-case scenario falls somewhere between a Jonathan Taylor and a Josh Jacobs rookie year, let’s say 1250 total yards and the 14 scores. What really needs to be seen for this season to be a success is the team turning to him in times of need and him delivering. That was the case in the Browns game, and he does it on occasion in the first few weeks. Had this quarterback class not been so deep, he would have been in the running for rookie of the year. He inserts his name in the conversation of top back in the league, and while the pick seemingly had questionable value at the time, he becomes a force that teams fail to try and stop.
Worst-case scenario
The worst-case scenario again starts with the Steelers line, as the questions that are now there don’t have an answer. Both tackles fail to get much of a push while neither B.J. Finney nor Kendrick Green can lock down the starting center job down, both rotating in and out due to the others’ struggles. Worse yet, the line is drilled to protect Roethlisberger at all costs, leading to a failure to get a push once more. Harris goes from a line that opened up giant holes at Alabama to one that makes him have to create more.
The other issue that arises is Harris suddenly being in a position where there is little competition for his job. While he was “the guy” at Alabama, Nick Saban had a capable back behind him in Brian Robinson Jr. who would have stepped in had Harris struggled. That is no longer the case, as Benny Snell is seemingly not a realistic threat to contend for the starting role with Harris on the roster.
He skates through camp with little fanfare and little playing time due to a lingering abdominal injury. Fans are on fire when he finally sees his first significant playing time, and he doesn’t wow anyone. He records 75 rushing yards on 20 carries and really struggles to find a hole behind the rebuilt line. The most notable highlight clip is Harris getting stood up on the goal line twice as he can’t overcome the Steelers struggling line.
This becomes the status quo for the team, as Harris gets plenty of opportunities, but can’t do much without his elite line. He does have a few solid outings, and his month of September is a good one as he rushes for 475 yards. His October is a bad one, as he misses two games with a shoulder injury. While Snell doesn’t light the world on fire, he scores four times in Harris’s absence and establishes himself as the goal line back.
In total, Harris never really gets it going, and some lingering injuries hamper him during the season. He has a very David Montgomery-like rookie year, netting 925 total yards and a disappointing 3.8 yards per carry. As well, he only scores five total times (twice through the air), leading to further disappointment. The Steelers miss the playoffs and Roethlisberger retires, leaving the team with a plethora of offensive questions they will have to answer in the year following.
Final result
Ultimately, I think Harris’s season comes somewhere in between this. There are two overarching factors that I think will be critical for his success. For starters, can Harris avoid the injury bug that commonly plagues bell-cow running backs? I would guess no, as he had a lot of usage at Alabama and the position is a naturally physical one.
The other question is how good will this patched up line do? While the team has some intriguing players there, most of the line is unproven. If they have similar, or even worse, run blocking than the unit last year, Harris will be in for a long rookie year. This line is riddled with question marks, and while Harris is an upgrade in the backfield, he doesn’t make up for the inherent issues they may cause.
At the end of the day, I think Harris takes his lumps during year one but flashes at times when the line can get a push. I’m hesitant to say he runs for over 1000 yards, but I think he hovers around that number. Where I think he makes a big impact is as a receiver and as a touchdown producer. He showed great hands that should translate quickly for the Steelers. Where I want to see him flat out dominate is on the goal line. My early guess is Harris posts around 1000-1100 total yards and scores around 10 times. What do you think? Let me know in the comments how you see Harris’s rookie season going.