The Steelers went with a position of need approach in the 2021 NFL, but here are the players who could have successful NFL careers.
Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin seem to be incredibly pleased with their draft choices in 2021. Fans and analysts may not like all the selections for various reasons, but in general, most seem satisfied. Interestingly though, when you listen to the general managers on other teams, you hear a lot of the same, or when fans of other teams call NFL radio go on about how this pick or that pick was great.
Hearing how great each team’s draft was can make one think. Yes, on paper, every team’s draft looks great. In reality, a year from now, we will look back and wonder about the draft and say why did they draft that guy. Not just the Steelers; it could be any team. The short of it is not every team’s draft will be as great as they think, while other teams will have struck pay dirt. It’s an inevitable part of football. Even the Steelers, in retrospect, have had some horrible draft years. 1983 comes to mind; 2008 is considered one of their worst.
It will be somewhat fascinating to see who the eventual winners and losers of the 2021 draft will be. We will have to wait until September when the season starts to see how each of the draftees starts panning out.
How many draft choices make the final roster?
In the NFL, according to averages, approximately 41.7% of 7th round draft choices remain on a roster when the season starts. 30% of 6th rounders are gone before the season begins. Two in ten 5th rounders get cut. When it comes to the 1-4th selections, it ranges from 99.7%-91.4%. By year three, nearly half of all picks made in that year’s draft from the 3rd round on are no longer in the NFL. After five seasons, only 70% of 1st rounders remain on a team’s roster, half the 2nd round selections are gone, and less than 20% of players drafted in the 3rd round or later remain for any team.
Since the averages are for the NFL on the whole, by the start of the 2021 season, of 128 players chosen through the first four rounds, 127 should remain. Of the 96 players selected in the 5th round and later, only 67 might stay on a roster
By 2023, of the 224 draft choices, only 124.48 will remain on an NFL roster. Then by 2025, only 61.604 of players drafted five years earlier will remain in the NFL. About two draft choices per team will remain. Looking at it from that perspective shows not every team could have had a great 2021 draft.
How things typically work out for the Steelers
On the individual team level, these percentages will vary wildly. Generally, teams could cut about six 5th rounders before the 2021 season opens; however it’s never precise. One team may cut a 4th round player but keep their 5th round player, or another team cuts a 6th round player but keeps the two 7th round draft picks. Or a team can cut a veteran or two in lieu of keeping an extra draft pick or two. There are many ways it can work, plus the percentages are averages; in any given season, more draft picks may stay one year and less the next. It’s never exact.
How then do these percentages affect the Steelers? It’s hard to say without a crystal ball how it eventually works out. However, we can look at the last two draft classes. The Steelers drafted in 2020 remain on the team. Though it looks like they bucked the averages, they did not have a first-round selection, and so Chase Claypool, in effect, became their 1st draft choice to a certain degree. As for the 2019 draft class, the Steelers no longer have Sutton Smith 6th round pick and Derwin Gray 7th round selection. Meaning the Steelers may cut two or three more by the time this season starts.
So we have all seen who they drafted and have heard the reasons why the Steelers drafted them. Of the eight players selected in 2021, who are the three most likely players to remain with the team in 2025?
RB Najee Harris
It may be a bit peculiar to stick a first-round draft choice in the honorable mention category. However, since Jerome Bettis retired, the Steelers track record on running backs has not been stellar. Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis had careers of at least ten seasons. After that, the longest-tenured running backs for the Steelers are Merril Hoge six seasons and Frank Pollard, nine seasons. With the exception of Willie Parker and Walter Abercrombie, who played six seasons, Lev’eon Bell, James Conner, Barry Foster, Bam Morris, Tim Worley, Rashard Mendenhall all played five seasons or less for the Steelers.
Combine that track record with the average life expectancy of a running back in the NFL at no longer than 2.81 years. The odds of a long career for Harris do not seem probable. That said, the Steelers are due to get a running back that has a prosperous career finally. Harris could finally be the back they have been seeking.
Assuming he’s not an injury-prone player, it’s likely to presume he should at least hit the five-year mark, the length of his rookie contract. After that, with free agency, he could stay in the league but with another team. Could Harris be the running back to buck the trend for the Steelers at that position? One can only hope. But history has shown us that the average career span of a starting running back doesn’t last long.
TE Pat Freiermuth
The Steelers have had some great tight ends over the years. Heath Miller, Mark Bruener, Randy Grossman, and Bennie Cunningham, to name a few. Plus, the track records for tight ends have been fairly good in Pittsburgh. Considering tight ends, they play a dual role. As a blocker, there is a good chance of injury. As a receiver, the average life span 2.81 years. So as tight end, he should at least make it through the NFL player average for all positions at 3.3 years.
Pat Friermuth brings a lot to the Steelers. He was the 2nd highest-rated tight end in the draft when the Steelers surprisingly selected him. He has the ability to block, and the Steelers expect him to be a solid receiver when needed as well. He has the talent to be a capable tight end like Heath Miller. If he has a lot of success early on it’s not beyond the pale to assume the Steelers keep him around after his rookie contract.
Whether he makes the Hall of Fame is another issue. Still, considering the Steelers also have Eric Ebron, a seven-year veteran as it is. Adding Freiermuth to the mix could result in some big plays in 2021. It is not hard to envision Freiermuth having a long career with the Steelers. It would be a safe bet that Freiermuth will be a Steeler well beyond the 2025 season.
C Kendrick Green
Putting an offensive lineman in this slot would be a risky proposition at best. Offensive linemen are always pulling hamstrings, tweaking knees, tearing a pec muscle, or get concussions. It’s a brutal position. That said, the Steelers have an uncanny knack at selecting great Centers in the draft.
In the last 47 seasons, the Steelers have had six centers. Four of the centers played a total combined 44 seasons, with the other two playing three seasons. That’s unheard of for most teams to get that kind of productivity, especially on the offensive line. Adding to it, out of the four centers, two of them never missed a game in 22 seasons and played a total combined 429 games. Of course, those two are Mike Webster and Dermontti Dawson. Add to that Maurkice Pouncey; all three will be in the Hall of Fame.
Based on the Steelers’ track record with centers, there is no doubting when the Steelers draft a center; the kid is usually talented, skillful, and tough as nails. Enter Kendrick Green. They like his attitude in the way he plays. Scouts noted he has a mean streak. They like his leadership qualities; he has excellent skills. They had him ranked high on their draft board. On top of that, he started 33 straight games at Illinois, so he has an established track history of reliability.
Considering he’s projected as a starter in week one, fans can expect that he will be a productive member of the steelers for many years if Green performs as expected.
P Pressley Harvin
It might seem a bit unusual to place a 7th round draft selection in the number one slot. Then again, he is a punter. Once the Steelers find a punter, it’s not unusual for the punter to stick around for five seasons or more. Even then, if a team lets one go, they generally find employment with another organization. Teams normally do not draft kickers and punters often because many get recycled throughout the league. Case in point in the 2021 draft besides Harvin Cincinnati drafted placekicker Evan McPherson the only two specialty players selected.
In Pittsburgh’s case, The Steelers released Jordan Berry had before the start of the 2020 season. Then they signed Dustin Colquitt. After five weeks, they cut Colquitt and resigned Berry. Colquitt did not pass muster, and with no better options, the Steelers re-signed Berry.
So they Drafted Presley Harvin to compete for the starting position. The underlying thought is the young rookie should win the starting position. The Steelers feel he has a strong leg and has room to get much better as time goes on. Plus, veteran Jordan Berry is already on his second stint with the Steelers. It’s not beyond the pale to see Harvin have a long career with the Steelers.
Ultimately, were are still two and a half months from training camp. It may be premature to make projections, especially since injuries can profoundly affect whether someone gets cut or stays. Or the player who looked good on game film turns out to be a flop. We will know how well the Steelers drafted as the 2021 season comes to a close. Now, as to which teams had the best draft and the worst draft in 2021? Whoever hoists the Lombardi trophy at the end of the season will likely answer that question.