Reasons why Steelers Pat Freiermuth is set for an elite 2022

The Steelers had a great rookie season from their tight end, and all signs point to him taking his game to the next level in 2022.

Tight ends have one of the tougher learning curves in the NFL. Typically, a rookie tight end will have a mediocre first year before taking off in their second season. That seemed to be what the Steelers expected, as they drafted Pat Freiermuth but still had Eric Ebron on the roster to play over him. It became apparent early in the season though that Freiermuth was in rare company as the rookie was dynamic when he was on the field.

What are his expectations with the Steelers?

I did a relatively deep dive into how rookie tight ends taken in the first and second rounds of the draft have fared from year one to two and how that stacks up for Freiermuth. As well, I looked at some of the more notable tight ends of the past 15 years and compared their first and second seasons to what Freiermuth may end up doing. To say the least, fans should be excited about the steps he may take going forward.

Important to highlight before this breakdown is that we don’t have athletic numbers on Freiermuth as an injury prevented him from working out during the pre-draft process. That means I’ve focused less on the tight ends athletic makeup as opposed to their pure production.

While Freiermuth isn’t the athlete that a Noah Fant is or a Jimmy Graham was, their stats will still be compared. Without further ado, here is Freiermuth’s rookie season breakdown and why fans should be excited about his 2022 season.

Steelers Freiermuth compared to previous rookies

As stated before, rookie tight ends have had pretty mild rookie years after being drafted. This is due to the change in competition from the college game to pro-level as well as understanding the tasks a pro tight end will have to fill. Below is every tight end drafted in the first and second round from the past five years with their stats compared to Freiermuth’s.

Of the names on the list, Freiermuth is only behind Evan Engram and possibly Fant as best performing rookies from the top two rounds. That means for the past five years, Freiermuth is a top-five performing rookie tight end. Considering the extreme learning curve that is usually associated with the position, this is a good thing moving forward.

What is most notable here is just how much tight end’s productions jump in their second year. On average, receptions and yards are over doubled while yards per catch and touchdowns also see smaller increases. If Freiermuth follows along with these averages, he is set up for an insane 125 catch campaign for 1100 yards and 8 or 9 scores. Those would be elite numbers if achieved.

Now while he may not follow along with those projections to an exact amount (he isn’t going to catch 8 passes a game), he realistically could see all of his numbers have a healthy increase. When you compare him to the other tight ends taken in a similar range, Freiermuth easily had a great rookie campaign. The Steelers will almost certainly turn to him more in 2022.

Steelers Freiermuth compared to former top tight ends

While some will look over the names on that list and point out the number of players that aren’t quality starters, you see similar trends pop up with some of the former great tight ends. As documented below, most of the top tight ends had huge sophomore surges. The only exception to this rule is former Steelers great Heath Miller, as he regressed slightly from his rookie campaign.

Where you see these stars really improve is their scoring ability along with their receptions and yards. If Freiermuth were to follow these trends, he would post a similar stat line as projected before, with 115 receptions for 1025 yards. The difference would be his touchdown production, as that would jump to an obscene 16 total end zone trips in 2022.

Again, these stat lines won’t be locks to occur, especially those scoring numbers, but the same expected jump in receiving totals are here. With Freiermuth already establishing himself as a good option as a rookie, he will now be tasked with making a jump from a good player to an elite one. Once again, the numbers from both players drafted in the last five years and from some of the great’s link Freiermuth to a big second season.

Freiermuth’s potential issues from this study

Looking over the numbers, there is reason to be excited about Freiermuth moving forward. That said, this study does overlook a few things. For starters, and as mentioned before, this study doesn’t account athleticism. While not the end all be all for a tight end, Freiermuth isn’t a top-level athlete. Comparing him to an Engram, Fant, or even Graham isn’t in line with what he can do. That said, there are plenty of different tight-end bodies that Freiermuth compares well to such as T.J. Hockenson and a slightly less athletic version of George Kittle.

Another aspect is the fact that the Steelers’ offense is very much in flux right now. There should be another exodus of talent this offseason, and with no set quarterback right now, the offense could be an issue. Even if that’s the case though, having a safety valve like Freiermuth actually would benefit from that. Freiermuth could see an influx of targets because of that.

The biggest ding against Freiermuth is his yards per catch. While anyone who watched the offense this season will know that Freiermuth can make some plays with the ball in his hands, he wasn’t a strong threat on deeper passes. His yards per catch weren’t great as a rookie, and the one thing that most tight ends didn’t see a huge jump in was in yards per catch. Freiermuth really has to become a threat down the seam and on deeper passes if he wants to become a top tight end.

Steelers final verdict

Can Freiermuth become the next great tight end? I believe he can. While he isn’t the dynamic receiving and athletic threat that fellow rookie Kyle Pitts was, most top tight ends aren’t just receivers. Travis Kelce, Kittle, and even Mark Andrews are all talented blockers and receivers. Freiermuth fits right into that mindset, as he can serve as a blocker and receiver for an offense.

At the end of the day, I think Freiermuth will take that step to become a top threat. While he won’t have over 100 receptions, I think he could easily close in on 80-90 total receptions as a safety valve. If he can get his yards per catch-up, he could be close to 1000 total receiving yards. Add in a few extra touchdowns and I think Freiermuth is a top-five tight end in 2022.

One has to be happy with how the rookie produced in 2021. The Steelers clearly found their tight end of the future. The question is, can Freiermuth be a good tight end or a great one. Based on his rookie season compared to the other tight ends in the league, Freiermuth is in line to make a huge jump next season.