Many Steelers fans think drafting Kenny Pickett is a dream scenario, but here’s why we shouldn’t want Pittsburgh to take him in the 2022 NFL Draft.
It’s not hard to see why many Pittsburgh Steelers fans are infatuated with the idea of drafting QB Kenny Pickett. Like something out of storybook, Pitt fans could watch their quarterback play on the same field for the same city that he has spent the past five years performing in front of.
However, I really believe that much of this is nostalgia, and fans need to sit back and think about what decision would be best for the organization; not just what they would like to see happen.
Pickett is easy to like, and on the right team, I think he could be a very solid player in the NFL. However, the more I consider all of the variables, the more I start to think the Steelers should steer clear of him in the 2022 NFL Draft. Here are three reasons why:
Pickett is a one-year-wonder
Being a one-year-wonder wonder isn’t always a bad thing. That’s exactly what Joe Burrow was at LSU, yet he was just minutes away from winning the Super Bowl in his second NFL season. Unfortunately, players like Burrow only come around once in a blue moon, and Pickett isn’t nearly on the same level as a prospect.
The production for Pickett was incredible this year — nobody is going to deny that. The fifth-year senior put up 4,319 yards to go with 42 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 13 games, according to Sports Reference. What’s concerning is that he could revert back to the QB we saw from 2017 to 2020.
In those years, Pickett was hardly a draftable football player with his pedestrian yards per attempt and overall underwhelming play. I don’t see Pickett making a big regression, but with as big of a sample as he had in college, you would like to see him string together more than one good sample of play.
Steelers need a franchise QB with a higher ceiling
One of my biggest fears for the future of the Steelers is getting stuck with a limbo quarterback who can never seem to get them over the hump. This was one of the biggest problems with this franchise during the 80s and 90s and why they struggled to find consistent success.
We have seen this scenario play out far too often in the NFL. Andy Dalton is a perfect example. The Bengals had an immensely talented football team from 2011 to 2015, but Dalton was never good enough to take this team anywhere. I’m sure you are thinking of other starting quarterbacks right now who are the exact same way.
This isn’t to say that Pickett will never be good enough, but I worry about his limited upside. Pickett doesn’t have a huge arm or elite velocity to drive the football. While he’s athletic enough to get outside the pocket and extend the play, it’s easy to see how his average arm could limit him at the next level.
If Pickett has a Dalton-like career, then this isn’t a player worth investing in (at least in my mind). I don’t want to get stuck with a quarterback that is going to limit this team’s upside — especially when you consider how special these young AFC quarterbacks are right now.
Someone like Malik Willis has a lower floor, but a much higher ceiling if all goes well, and the Steelers should probably gamble on the upside. Perhaps the answer is not taking a QB at all this year if there’s no elite prospect.
Pickett has historically small hands
Many fans scoff at this metric and brush it away as if it’s nothing at all, but I would urge you not to do so. Though some NFL Draft analysts can certainly cross the line when it comes to being too analytical, there’s actually a lot of history behind hand size, and Kenny Pickett would be the biggest outlier we have ever seen in this department.
There has never been an NFL quarterback who has had good success with under 9” hands. part of the reason for this is there just isn’t many prospects who come in the league with hands that are sub-9″. There are only a few in the NFL that come to mind: Brandon Allen and Jake From (both with 8 7/8” hands).
However, Pickett’s hand size is rumored to be just 8 1/4”. This is significantly below the 9” threshold and this is more than just a little concerning. Because of his tiny hands, Pickett is forced to wear gloves on both hands at all times, and that won’t change in the NFL.
What will change is that Pickett will be playing with a larger ball — something that could affect his power and velocity even more. I’m not saying that you need 10+ inch hands like Russell Wilson or Ben Roethlisberger in order to be successful, but Pickett is so far below the threshold here that it’s scary.
I wish Kenny Pickett the best of luck in his professional career, and I’ll be interested to follow along with his journey. However, I worry that the Steelers would get locked into average QB play for the foreseeable future if they went with a low-upside player like Pickett, and I’m starting to think that this isn’t the way to go.