Personally, I wasn’t a fan of the Steelers first-round pick, and here are my three primary issues with the team’s new quarterback.
The Steelers made their offseason intentions clear, as they were set on landing a potential franchise quarterback. They invested heavily in scouting the position and seemingly lacked first-round options besides the top quarterbacks in this class. The team got their guy, as Kenny Pickett was the first quarterback off the board in the first round. That said, I have my issues with the selection.
My point for the Steelers
Let me be clear up front: this post is meant to spur a healthy discussion in the comments. I have three primary reasons that I dislike the Pickett pick for this team, and I would love to hear counters to those points. In no way am I trying to bash Pickett nor am I saying he is a bust. In my final point, I will make that even clearer. This is me airing my issues from the film that I have watched and hoping to get some discussion going from both those that agree and disagree.
As well, I don’t hate Pickett in the slightest. While I am skeptical about the pick, as a fan of the team I genuinely hope he proves me wrong and becomes an elite player. If he does, this team will be set for the next ten years, and as a fan naturally, I want that. I personally don’t see it based on what I’ve seen from Pickett, but I genuinely hope he proves me wrong.
With all of that said, here are my three primary issues with Pickett as the Steelers next franchise quarterback.
Steelers issue #3
Pocket Presence
Starting off with the most correctable of his issues, one of Pickett’s major flaws as a prospect was his ability to stay in the pocket and make plays. While not a dynamic running quarterback, more often than not Pickett would roll out of the pocket. While this can help evade pressure, he was also known to do this even when the pockets were clean. This is something that you can get away with at the college level but could lead to a lot of sacks as a pro.
Behind an elite offensive line, this wouldn’t be the biggest issue in the world. There, Pickett would have better protection that would limit his need to roll out of the pocket, and even when he does, they will be able to protect him better. The Steelers don’t have this luxury though. Their line is nothing more than average. That means if Pickett tries to move around, it could cost him.
The only good aspect of this is that vision in the pocket and general pocket awareness can be improved upon as a pro. Early on though, this can be a limiting factor, as rolling to the outside with a mediocre line is risky. Pickett can get past this, but it will require some discipline on his end. If he tries to move around as he did in college though, it can lead to a heavy dosage of sacks early in his career though.
Steelers issue #2
Arm Strength
One of my biggest complaints with Pickett coming out of college was his lack of arm strength. While he doesn’t have a horrible arm, on tape it is clear to see that he will never be the traditional gunslinger that some of the top names in the league are. Simply put, he won’t have the arm strength to keep pace with them.
For the majority of his college career, Pickett had a yards per attempt average under 7.3. Compare that to the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and frankly, it isn’t good enough. Those guys constantly put up averages in the mid-eights, as they have the arm strength to push the ball down the field regularly.
You can point to Pickett’s final college season as proof that he has enough arm strength. His average did jump to 8.7, a sign that he was more capable of pushing passes deep. However, a lot of his success there stemmed from Jordan Addison. Can Pickett make plays deep? Sure, but it isn’t a strong element of his game and odds are, he won’t consistently win deep in the pros.
We saw an offense limited by the arm strength of its quarterback for the past few years in Pittsburgh. Sure, you can still win, but having an offense capable of winning deep is a proven successful strategy. The Steelers will likely have to continue to rely more on the short and medium passing game than the deep one once again.
Unfortunately, arm strength doesn’t get better once you are in the pros. This means that what you see is what you get in that regard to Pickett. You don’t need a quarterback with an elite arm to win; Tom Brady has proven that for years. That said, Pickett will have to perfect almost every other facet of his game if he hopes to be elite despite lacking an ideal arm.
Steelers issue #1
His Ceiling
It is a universal truth that if you don’t have a great quarterback in the NFL, you aren’t going to win a Super Bowl. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. Sure, football is a team game, but an elite team and a bad quarterback will still result in a mediocre record. While I do believe Pickett can become an above-average starter, I struggle to see him ever cracking the top names at the position.
Pickett is accurate and can progress through his reads well. As highlighted above, he does have some issues in the pocket and with his overall arm strength, but he can still succeed in the NFL despite lacking those two things right now. They do limit his upside, as he will never be amongst the perceived elite of NFL quarterbacks due to him lacking those traits (specifically arm strength).
Had the Steelers needed a quarterback to come in from day one to compete, selecting Pickett would have made sense. He was the most pro-ready of the bunch despite lacking the ceiling that others in the class had. More than likely, we will see Pickett play sooner than later because of the fact that he is so pro-ready.
The issue is that the Steelers didn’t need a guy that can play right away. They signed Mitchell Trubisky this offseason, and he would have been a more than capable starter for a season. Add in the fact the roster still needs a few pieces before it can be considered elite and adding Pickett just doesn’t make sense. He will see the field sooner than the rest of this class, but there is a good chance another name in this class ends up being the better quarterback.
On his rookie deal, this won’t matter. The team can surround Pickett with elite talent for the first five years due to his contract being what it is. He will eventually want a big deal though, and we’ve seen what issues arise when you pay non-elite quarterbacks’ top money. Players like Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins, two names that I believe represent Pickett’s best-case scenario as a pro, have major deals in place that hamper their team. Pickett could cause a similar issue once his rookie deal is up.
On top of this, I believe Pickett is close to his ceiling as a player already. His only fixable issue that is a major concern is his pocket presence. That will help improve his game a little bit as will his accuracy getting a little better once he develops, but there isn’t a lot more he can improve upon. That is why he was seen as so pro-ready, but in turn, his ceiling is capped.
All of this to say, I know a lot of fans are excited about the pick, but because of these three issues, I’m skeptical. Again, I hope I’m wrong, as I want nothing more than the Steelers to have landed their franchise quarterback. I’m just not convinced that Pickett will ever become much more than an above-average quarterback.