As everyone noticed, the Steelers Mike Tomlin had another winning season finishing 9-8, even though they missed the playoffs thanks to a Jets loss.
Mike Tomlin’s 9-8 record prompts a question as to whether this record is more a product of a weak second-half schedule and really more smoke and mirrors than a result of his coaching. No one wants to take away Tomlin’s achievements from what he has accomplished in his career. Anytime a coach has 16 winning seasons, he is a good coach. Yet the luck of the draw in the Steelers schedule may have saved their winning streak as opposed to Tomlins coaching in 2023.
Many people pointed out the injury of T.J. Watt in the Bengals game when he tore his pectoral muscle. The Steelers then went 2-6 in that span of games. Plus, they were quick to point out that they lost in previous seasons when he didn’t play. So if, as his supporters say, Tomlin is a great coach, then how do you explain the trainwreck with their record?
Simply, they place all the blame on T.J. Watt’s injury. Even Tomlin does not buy into that philosophy. Just watch one of his press conferences. He has to make preparations with the personnel he has. Sometimes it worked sometimes it didn’t.
Still, Take Watt out of the equation. Then you can say it was the offensive line; it was putrid. A factual statement. Yet whose fault is it? Knowing Tomlin apologists, it’s Kevin Colbert’s. Well, to a degree, yes, that’s right. In that, the Steelers have ignored drafting a high-round offensive tackle in quite a while. Then again, if true, where was Tomlin’s input on drafting a tackle.
The bottom line is that in 2022 it may not have been all Tomlin’s doing that the Steelers got to 9-8. Here’s why.
The Steelers had two separate seasons in 2022
In the first half of the season, the opponents the Steelers faced finished the season with a combined record of 78-56. In that span of games, the Steelers had a 2-6 record. Then after the by week, the Steelers went 7-2, and the record of the opponents they faced was 60-74. Hence the opponents they faced were much worse than the ones they played in the first eight games.
Certainly, that accounts for a large part of their success in the latter half of the season. One can also say the Steelers lost T.J. Watt in that span of games. Losing him hurt. Yet, if the Steelers success after the bye week is the return of Watt, then he got the Steelers a 9-8 season, not Tomlin. Considering Kenny Pickett did have to engineer some 4th quarter comebacks, you cant give Watt all the credit.
Perhaps you can credit Najee Harris, or it could be the victimized defenses that could not play the run as well. However, despite its problems, the offensive line played much better down the stretch than it did through the bye week, which might have played a role.
Regarding coaching, we know Tomlin is a good motivator, and players always respond well, which is why he has always been successful. It certainly didn’t do much early in the season. Perhaps it helped later in the year as they won, but they played weaker teams. Of course, if you want to credit Tomlin, he did insist Matt Canada modify the playbook supposedly. Making it more simplistic, allowing the offense to execute better. Assuming there is truth to that, then ok, in that sense, his coaching may have worked, allowing the Steelers to have some late-season success.
Steelers vs the AFC East
In case you missed it, Pittsburgh did not fare exceedingly well against the AFC east this year, losing to the Bills, Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins. All of the losses came before the bye week. Certainly not helping the Steelers record early. The Bills gave the Steelers one of their worst losses in decades.
The Steelers had no answer for the Dolphins, and Belicheck undoubtedly out-coached Tomlin. So perhaps looking at why things went haywire before the bye week, playing all of the AFC East teams explains that. It never appeared Tomlin had much of a clue on how to play the AFC East this year, nor had a game plan to stop them. So while players not making plays accounts for some of that, so did poor coaching all the way down the line.
Steelers vs. the NFC South
Unlike the AFC East, the Steelers went 4-0 against the NFC South. However, one of those four wins came in the first half of the season at home over Tampa Bay. It’s one game you do have to give Tomlin his respect with the injuries they had going into the game.
However, Tom Brady was arguably a mess in that game, not the Tom Brady of old and several reporters commented on it. The rest came after the bye week. And perhaps with the exception of the Saints game, the Steelers generally move the ball at will and were never in serious danger of losing the Panthers and Falcons game. So if the Steelers record was worse early thanks to the AFC East, it was perhaps a bit better than it should have been thanks to NFC South victories.
Steelers vs AFC North
The Steelers had a mixed bag here. Beating the Bengals in the year’s first half, losing in the 2nd half. Losing to Cleveland early, then beating them when it mattered most. They split games with the Ravens, although they should have won both. They lost one because they couldn’t stop the run, and as you know, Tomlin is the real defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, not so much. So that loss is on Tomlin. They won the 2nd game but here is where luck had an impact. They played a very banged-up Ravens team. No Lamar Jackson and Rashod Bateman being out for the year. They got the luck of the draw playing the Ravens twice after the bye week.
You do not want to discount Tomlin’s role. He plays a pivotal role in any success the Steelers have. Looking back at the 2022 season, there are enough questions to make one wonder if 9-8 was all due to Tomlin nor that he’s even largely responsible. One could claim the late-season success was due to a particular combination of factors, like Watt’s return, Najee Running better, the offensive line gelling, or a weak schedule. Rather in layman’s terms, good old-fashioned luck.
The point here is that Tomlin is not a bad coach, and the Steelers would be hard-pressed to find a successful replacement. Within that, yes, the Steelers did get to 9-8. Despite that, it does not feel like the Steelers were as successful as the record indicated and that they still lost. In part, instead of getting a top 10 draft choice now, they get the 17th overall selection. Considering if they did have more losses, they would have had a higher selection, plus the Bear’s first choice in round two with their second-round selection.
The draft aside, it also feels like a loss in that the Steelers even got to 9-8 and were exposed. Exposed in that well, some things got to give with the assistant coaches; they still need to work on the offensive line. Tomlin needs to make some tough choices. Great coaches make them go on, and if they prove wrong, they learn from their mistakes. With Tomlin, you have more of a feeling he’s a deer frozen in the headlights by the oncoming car.