Combining the powerful note that the Steelers ended last season on with their upcoming schedule surrounds them with quite a lot of hype. However, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding them as well, so it’s going to be interesting to see how strong they look when facing each of their opponents—or at least some of them.
While there are some opponents that the Steelers should be expected to win or lose against for rather straightforward reasons, there are some others that fall into a much grayer area. This mainly stems from how similarly their 2022-23 journeys unfolded to Pittsburgh’s.
To me, that means how well the Steelers hold up against each one will display how well they’ve improved as a team (assuming that they in fact have improved). I’ve made a list of three matchups that I believe stand out as the best ones to refer to when approaching such a situation.
And please note that the list you are about to see has nothing to do with predictions, as the goal here is not to make a case for how good or bad Pittsburgh will look against each listed game.
Rather, I am merely acknowledging them as three that could best show us where Pittsburgh’s limits lie. If the Steelers lose these games, it could show that they haven’t grown very much since last season. Yet if they win them, it could confirm that they’ve climbed above where we last saw them on the NFL totem pole.
This is also assuming that Pittsburgh doesn’t experience any steep rise or decline over the course of this offseason. In other words, if we end up seeing a year as good as 15-2 or as bad as 2-15, this list will have essentially lost all purpose.
But, since neither of those records are probable, there is no reason why we can’t press on. So without further ado, here are three games—in no particular order—that I feel will ultimately define the worth of the 2023-24 Steelers.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is the first name on our list, and that should not come as much of a surprise to anyone who knows what the Jaguars pulled off last season.
The Jags (who, just like the Steelers, finished their regular season with a 9-8 record) won their division back in January, earning themselves the 4-seed in the AFC playoff bracket. While doing so got them some props, many expected them to do nothing with the placement—expectations that were only fueled by a 27-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Chargers in the second quarter of their wild card game. That is until Jacksonville brought it back.
The Jaguars went on to outscore the Chargers 31-3 to win by a single point and pull off one of the largest comebacks in NFL playoff history. As if that wasn’t enough to establish the Jags as dangerous, they even managed to keep their divisional road loss to the Lombardi-winning Chiefs somewhat captivating.
That information would leave Jacksonville scaring fans of any team, but its all-time record versus Pittsburgh doesn’t make things any less concerning for yinzers.
Of the 27 meetings shared between the Jaguars and Steelers (postseason included), 14 of them have gone to the former. How much of an influence does that have on either squad’s current circumstances? Realistically none. It still paints the Jags out as a bunch to not be overlooked, though. And while we're on the topic, something worth noting is that historical competitiveness will be a common theme for teams two and one as well.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
Pittsburgh’s battle with New England just might be the most telling of the three discussed today, as the Patriots are the only squad on this list that the Steelers faced last year.
The matchup was a low-scoring one, with the Steelers making things interesting late before falling just short in the 17-14 contest. In retrospect, the defeat summed up the first half of Pittsburgh’s season beautifully: mediocre.
Such a description fell predominantly on the quarterback situation and T.J. Watt’s sudden absence. But, with Kenny Pickett now being the undisputed starter at QB and Watt hopefully not suffering an injury like last year’s, neither of those problems should arise this next time around. Apart from those two, the only other one that could come into play is Pittsburgh’s previous struggles with the Pats.
Historically, New England has won 18 of its 34 meetings with Pittsburgh, giving the Patriots a slight edge (similar to Jacksonville’s). Not only that, but the Steelers are 1-7 in the last eight, meaning that they’ve only gotten one win in the rivalry since 2011. That’s not just being inferior, that’s being on an entirely different level.
Hopefully, the Steelers will be able to keep those dark times out of their minds. If they can, their chances of taking this game—and giving us one of our best frames of reference for showing how much they’ve improved—should be all the higher.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have a fair argument for being Pittsburgh's toughest obstacles on this list, as they finished with the same regular-season record as Jacksonville (9-8) while having the privilege of playing at home.
Seattle was one of the biggest surprises last season, making the playoffs despite having the forgotten Geno Smith at quarterback. To make its underdog story even better, being a member of the NFC West means sharing a division with the 49ers and Rams (the latter of which were the defending Super Bowl champs this time last year). So, all things considered, its postseason appearance was far from a minute accomplishment.
One more thing that can make the Seahawks a tricky squad for the Steelers is—surprise, surprise—the history between them. Including Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl XL victory, the two franchises are tied 10-10 against each other, making for yet another intense matchup that Steelers fans will be sitting on the edges of their seats during.
Facing a team that is coming off of a playoff appearance is bad enough, but that same team also having the 2023 Comeback Player of the Year, a deafening home-field advantage, and half of its previous matchups against you sounds like quite the uphill battle. Pittsburgh taking this one would give it a better-quality win than most of the ones it’s gotten in recent memory.
If the Steelers can win these three games, they will have likely confirmed that their ceiling has reached heights that last season could not. If they can’t, it will be hard not to feel that at least some of their potential entering the 2023-24 stretch went to waste.