It has been a bit of a Cinderella story for Mason Rudolph. Nine months ago, it seemed as if no one wanted him, and the only reason he was a favorite to make a roster was due to no other options. Since taking over for the Steelers though, he has been a perfect fit for what this offense needs.
Let me be clear, Rudolph hasn’t been elite all of a sudden. In terms of starters in the league, he hasn’t played a true top guy. That said, this offense has played well with him at the helm, and without his play, this team wouldn’t be in the playoffs. With all of that said, here are the three reasons that the Steelers should have Rudolph be the starter next year, and one reason they shouldn’t.
Rudolph’s Steelers story so far
Rudolph has had a very tough career since joining the team. The Steelers drafted him in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He felt some heat instantly, as Ben Roethlisberger was vocal about not being happy using draft picks on quarterbacks, especially a year after drafting Josh Dobbs.
Rudolph settled into a backup role heading into his second year, but a season-ending injury to Roethlisberger thrust Rudolph into the starting role. The results were lackluster, as he eventually battled with Devlin Hodges for the role as both struggled to lead the team.
While not the superstar some hoped he would be, the Steelers kept Rudolph around on an extension, seemingly readying themselves for life after Roethlisberger. While not a slam dunk star, the team had some level of comfort with Rudolph, much to the chagrin of the fanbase, who had mostly turned on the former Oklahoma State quarterback at this point.
While he was the last quarterback on the roster following Roethlisberger’s retirement, the team was quick to bury him. Mitch Trubisky was signed and Kenny Pickett was drafted in the first round. While the team hyped an open competition, it was clear that Rudolph was the last option around.
I thought he would depart in the offseason, but it seemed like nobody wanted him. He returned to the Steelers on the cheapest deal possible and resumed his role as third quarterback. That was all until he got called into action and shined during his starts. With his brief history outlined, let's take a look at the first reason Rudolph should be the guy next season.
Rudolph is what the Steelers wanted at quarterback
The Steelers were building a very specific offense this offseason. They beefed up the line once again, added some physical threats in Darnell Washington and Alle Robinson, and were hyping up the shared workload between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. While the rest of the league was putting together high-flying offenses, the Steelers wanted one that didn’t rely on the quarterback and kept games close.
The hope was that since Pickett wouldn’t be asked to do too much, he could shine at the simple things. That was the way he was trending at the end of his rookie season, and the hope was for a continuation of that through year two.
Instead, Pickett became an abject liability. His early season play was a disaster, and while he settled down a little, he never had a truly great game. Outside of the occasional heroic fourth-quarter performance, Pickett looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league and hampered this offense because of his poor play.
When Rudolph came in, he finally looked the part of what this team wanted in their quarterback play. He was hitting the obvious passes while also connecting on deeper passes that kept the defenses honest. In order to counter this, defenses couldn’t stack the box and just stop the run like they had been doing with Pickett.
This allowed for the running game to open up, which played in perfect tandem with Rudolph as a passer. The offense put up over 30 points in back-to-back weeks and hummed through the competition. While the Ravens game wasn’t pretty, Rudolph held his own and did well enough considering the elements.
While we should all have serious concerns about how much Rudolph can do as a starter (he isn’t an elite passer), he fits what the offense wants to do. He has shown the ability to be a decent game manager, and that is what this team wants in their quarterback right now.
Steelers don’t have their guy in Pickett
In a similar vein, while Rudolph isn’t a great quarterback by any means, he at least fits what this offense wants to do. As I stated before, the offense was built in the offseason to not have to rely on the quarterback. Even then, Pickett was still miserable for this team. Rudolph could at least function as an average starter.
There are a lot of people still defending Pickett and claiming that he is the quarterback of the future. I don’t see it. While people are quick to point out Matt Canada as a hindrance, there is certainly an issue with the actual play of Pickett. I can’t recall a quarterback playing as poorly as Pickett has only to suddenly turn it around and be a star.
While it is hard to compare the two statistically, I would give the nod to Rudolph. If you extrapolate his average out to 12 starts like Pickett had, Rudolph was the better producer. All you have to do is watch the highlight reels of either quarterback to see that Rudolph was the better player.
Now let's look leaguewide. Pickett threw for fewer yards than the likes of Mac Jones, Zach Wilson, Aidan O’Connell, and Joshua Dobbs. He threw fewer touchdowns than those aforementioned names as well as the likes of Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Tommy DeVito, and Nick Mullins. For most of these backups, they played in fewer games than Pickett did.
While Pickett could look better with a new coordinator, I can’t foresee a player starting off their career this poorly only to rebound and become a star. Rudolph may not be a great solution long-term, but Pickett clearly isn’t the guy. His play speaks for itself, and it hasn’t been good.
Where else can the Steelers find a quarterback?
Probably the most pertinent issue and reason for giving Rudolph the shot is how the Steelers are positioned heading into this offseason. Had this team bottomed out and been in a position to land a franchise quarterback in the draft, then despite the late-season heroics from Rudolph, the plan should have been a quarterback. That won’t be the case.
Pittsburgh will be picking in the early to mid-20s at this point. If they want to land an actual upgrade in a prospect in the draft, it will cost a fortune, as the Steelers will likely need to move up into the top 12 to have a shot at a top name. That will be costly, and with so many other needs, it really isn’t feasible.
The team could stand pat and take a quarterback with their natural top pick. That would likely be a prospect such as Bo Nix, and he is built in a similar mold to what the team has in Pickett (higher floor, lower ceiling). Unless the Steelers are willing to mortgage their future to land a top name, the quarterback is hard to see as a realistic draft path.
Free agency has some potential names that could fit the bill, but there is a lot of risk tied into these guys. Kirk Cousins is the unquestioned top name, but he is coming off a severe injury, is older, and will cost a fortune to bring aboard. You could go less expensive in Baker Mayfield or Ryan Tannehill, but you are going to be facing cap issues as they still won’t come cheap. I don’t believe there is a free-agent name that will propel this team into Super Bowl contention, so why waste the money?
A trade would be the most plausible option, but even that doesn’t seem likely. Justin Herbert will likely not be on the move, and if he was, it would cost a considerable amount to land him. I’m slightly intrigued by Justin Fields if the price is right, but he will want a new contract sooner rather than later.
A handful of these names move the needle, but it comes at an extremely high cost. Instead, roll with Rudolph and see if he has the makings of a good quarterback. If he comes back to earth, that likely means you are in a good spot to draft a quarterback in the future.
Steelers may not want to pay Rudolph
My lone issue with Rudolph being given the keys to the car is because he will need a new contract from the Steelers to play here. For a normal position, this wouldn’t be the biggest issue, as you could find a reasonable price to have a veteran come in and compete. Quarterback is a different story.
Mediocre quarterbacks get paid 40 million dollars a season, while premiere backups make close to 10 million a season. Rudolph certainly won’t be in the low-tier starter category for money, but he will likely fetch a reasonably high price for his services given his strong stretch of play.
He could easily get a deal similar to what Trubisky initially got when the team wanted him to be the transitional option. That would be somewhere around 7-8 million a season. No, this doesn’t break the bank, but it does take resources away from other positions of need.
Had Rudolph been on a multi-year deal with a reasonable price tag, I would have zero issues with him getting the nod as the starter. Heck, I wanted him to be the transitional quarterback a few years ago instead of signing Trubisky. That said, however minor it may be, his contract is the only thing that has me hesitating from turning the team over to him next year.
The Steelers quarterback room is far from settled, but based on his play and the positional outlook for next year, Rudolph needs to be the guy moving forward. Pickett can still compete to earn that spot, but barring a meltdown, this should be Rudolph’s team in 2024.