The Steelers will enter the 2024 offseason with a lot of questions to answer. Despite seemingly turning things around last off-season, this team was still a disappointing group. The offense was mediocre for most of the season and failed to produce. Even after Matt Canada was fired, the unit failed to amount to much in most weeks.
A big reason for this struggle has been the quarterback play. While his fans are resilient, Kenny Pickett hasn’t looked like a great pro through his first two seasons. While there is something to be said about developing a quarterback, the NFL has seen numerous young quarterbacks enter the game and succeed quickly. Pickett was an older and more experienced prospect on top of that, so the clock was ticking.
Even with his play slightly better before his ankle injury against the Cardinals, Pickett has failed to have even one game where you look at him and say “That is for sure our guy”, and that is limiting this team. With the season winding down, I wanted to do an early look at what the quarterback position could look like for the Steelers past this season.
Steelers could stick with Pickett
I’m starting this list with the most likely name to be the starter next season in Pickett. While his play has been below the bar, it isn’t unlike the Steelers to give their investments time to sink or swim. With him having two more seasons on his contract plus his fifth-year option, more than likely they roll with Pickett for at least the beginning of next year.
To his credit, he has shown some positive traits so far in his career. For some unknown reason, his play is elite when trailing in the fourth. While his arm strength is average, he does have some good accuracy on his deep passes.
The issues are where he is lacking. His accuracy on medium and shorter passes is poor, he can’t hold his own in the pocket and scrambles into pressure, and his ability to progress through reads is almost nonexistent. For a 20-year-old player with a year or two of college starts, that would be understandable. Pickett will be 26 next year, played five years in college, and still has these issues.
Worse yet, he doesn’t make the waw plays to make up for his deficiencies. Frankly, he doesn’t have the traits to make those jaw-dropping plays in any given week. While I’m not high on Pickett as a franchise guy, the odds still point to this team trying to give him more time. Even if there is another guy behind him pushing, Pickett is the most likely name to start next year.
Steelers could turn to a backup in Mitch Trubisky
The Steelers didn’t get a great showing from Mitch Trubisky in his first start, but there could still be time for a turnaround. Brought in to be the potential short-term starter as a rookie was brought along, the Steelers cut bait with Trubisky early last season in favor of Pickett due to his respective struggles.
That didn’t end his tenure though, as Trubisky resigned in the offseason to be the backup quarterback for the next few seasons. He now has a chance to showcase some of the talent that made him a former first-round pick. Hey, if you were so gungho to say Pickett’s only issue was Canada as his offensive coordinator, you should be saying the same thing for Trubisky.
I don’t expect a Cinderella story for Trubisky, but anything is possible. If he can run the offense at the same level Pickett was, or maybe even do slightly better, then his name should be in the hat for starters next offseason. If he falls flat on his face, then this is obviously a moot point. He has the next handful of games to prove his worth to the Steelers or potentially even the rest of the league.
And for all of my Mason Rudolph supporters out there, sorry. The team clearly doesn’t like him. They gave him the smallest contract they could after burying him on the depth chart the offseason before. While the odds of Trubisky turning things around and becoming the starter are slim, Rudolph’s shot is nonexistent.
The Steelers get a new journeyman in Gardner Minshew
The next three spots are dedicated to three realistic free-agent routes this team could go. Before I continue, I do want to note that I am not thrilled at the idea of targeting a free-agent quarterback. They are expensive, and if a team is willing to let them walk, they likely aren’t a great franchise option. Just look at Derek Carr and his play this season.
The first free agent route would be a similarly illogical move, as they could target a different journeyman to hold down the quarterback spot for a few seasons. The best name I could find that is pending to be a free agent is Gardner Minshew, but there are a handful of names that could fit in this category.
If Trubisky doesn’t have a career resurgence and plays poorly, there isn’t a real sense in keeping him around. He is well-paid as a backup, so the expectation should be that he can lead this team to a few wins. If he can’t, then he is being overpaid as a low-end backup and should be cut.
That would open the door for Minshew to come in and take on that role. You could still keep Pickett around and let there be an open competition for the role next season. While Pickett would likely have the edge given the investment in him, Minshew is a proven and safe option in the league.
He is a jack of all trades as a quarterback. No, he isn’t going to wow you with amazing traits or elite throws, but he can manage a game and take what the defenses give him. He is also a gritty player, finding ways to eke out wins in tight games. No, he isn’t going to compete with the Patrick Mahomes of the world, but he can hold his own until a real franchise option is brought in.
Steelers could take a shot on a different turnaround with Baker Mayfield
Continuing with our free agent options, there appears to be, on paper, a surplus of potential quarterbacks to consider next offseason. While these names aren’t great, and most will be relegated to backup duties, a few should be receiving starter opportunities.
If the Steelers wanted to secure a more viable starting option, they could ink a familiar face to a contract in Baker Mayfield. The former Browns top quarterback has had a winding road as of late. From their guy of the future to being cut, Mayfield has played for a few different teams over the past few years. He landed in Tampa Bay this season and has performed well.
Mayfield is in a tier above Minshew as a player. He can push the ball more and make bigger plays in the pocket. While this also leads to more risks, he looks the part of a starter who can lead a team to a win on his own on occasion. He forces too many throws which leads to mistakes, but he has shown this season that he still can be a fine starter.
You likely have already cut Trubisky at this point if you are bringing in Mayfield. The expectation would be for him to start even if Pickett stays around for another season. Unless Pickett really makes that jump, Mayfield is your starter and Pickett becomes the backup. You are likely still looking to draft your replacement later on.
While unlikely, we have seen some quarterback redemption arcs. Most notable has been Geno Smith, who was a high-quality backup for most of his career after being a bust of a starter. He has since taken the starting job with the Seahawks and has run with it. The best-case scenario would be just that for Mayfield, but he could also provide some bigger plays for this offense, something that has been lacking from the quarterback position.
Steelers could land the top free agent in Kirk Cousins
If the Steelers truly want to start anew in their quarterback room, they could go all out to land the top name on the market in Kirk Cousins. It seemed like the Vikings were trying to make a run this year with Cousins at the helm, but his Achilles injury has derailed that. He has handled the Vikings quarterback job for a few seasons, but that may be coming to an end.
The Vikings could bring him back, but they may also choose to go through a rebuild and try to land a rookie quarterback in the future. Cousins has kept the team competitive, but various other issues have caused the team to falter. Given his age, Minnesota may be ready to move on.
Of the potential names, Cousins is easily the best tier of quarterback that would be available. While he isn’t at the top level of all quarterbacks, he is arguably in that next tier. He leads a team well, seems to be liked by his coaches, and he is a productive player.
There are risks with bringing Cousins in. For starters, he won’t be cheap. Considering the deal Carr got in free agency last year, you are likely looking at over 40 million a season for Cousins at the minimum. Achilles injuries are also a hard thing to recover from, granted he didn’t rely on mobility before to win.
The Vikings may also opt to keep him around. If they did, your next best option would be Ryan Tannehill, but he seems washed based on his recent play. That said, he has a proven track record of success, but will also likely be expensive and carry his own risks.
If you brought in Cousins, it would mean the end of the Pickett era. While you could keep him as a backup, you may also try and deal him in order to get resources to build up the team. It would be a short-term solution, but it could yield some quick and positive results.
That said, I’m not overly keen on this option, as Cousins would cripple the cap space we have and limit the team long-term. He hasn’t led the Vikings to any substantial success in the playoffs, so it wouldn’t make a lot of sense for the team to throw a lot of money at him and expect something different.
Steelers could trade for a quarterback
Of every option on this list, this is my least favorite route to go down. The past few offseasons have seen big quarterback trades go down. The Seahawks unloaded Russell Wilson to the Broncos, Deshaun Watson made his way to Cleveland, and Aaron Rodgers was dealt to the Jets. While the Rodgers deal isn’t fair to judge, none of these deals have been great for the team receiving the quarterback talent.
The issue once again comes down to why would a team trade a franchise quarterback away. Unless things had just gotten so sour between the player and team and there was no way to resolve the issue, the team is going to keep the star. Many a team has fallen victim to trading for another team's problem quarterback only for it to bite them.
Frankly, the best deal seems to have been the swap for the Lions and Rams a few years ago. The Rams got the quarterback that they needed to win the Super Bowl and the Lions got a lot of assets and Jared Goff, who is now playing well with a better team around him. Moves like that rarely work out.
For those clamoring for a top name like Justin Herbert to become available, keep dreaming. Instead, the most likely name on the block will be Mac Jones, but given his similarities to Pickett (low ceiling, highish floor) I would pass.
The only name that would be of interest is Justin Fields assuming that the Bears land the top pick and take a different quarterback. Even then, you would have to give up a good deal to land Fields, and he isn’t a sure player at this point. Given the risk and historical trend of quarterback trades not working out, I will pass on this option for the Steelers.
Steelers could take a Day 2 quarterback like Michael Pratt
The final two options are all draft routes, and if the team does opt to move on from Pickett, the draft makes the most sense. You land a quarterback in the draft and you have them on a reasonable contract for a few seasons. Like any position, there isn’t an exact science, but if you do hit, you are set. Like I said before, teams won’t let franchise quarterbacks go most of the time.
If the team still wants to try and give Pickett the benefit of the doubt/they don’t want to use their top pick in another quarterback, a day-two pick could land the job. I’ve highlighted Tulane’s Michael Pratt for this instance, but there will likely be a handful of names that you could consider at this juncture.
The benefit here is you still get a decent prospect at quarterback that wouldn’t need to start right away. If Pickett develops, you can parlay that rookie into a trade package down the road. If Pickett continues to be lackluster, you could give the day two pick a chance.
The issue comes with the success rate of day two picks at the quarterback position. In a similar vein, as developed quarterbacks enter the free agent market, teams won’t bypass a top talent at quarterback. They go in the first round or, at worst, in the top 40 picks. This means the pickings on day two usually come with some baggage.
Sure, on occasion, you can hit there, but more often than not they end up busting. The only positive this season is that the quarterback draft class seems to be filled, so that could push some names into the day two conversation.
Take Pratt for example. He has the size and frame you want in a quarterback, but he lacks the arm strength you want in an elite prospect. Tulane also isn’t a great school, so competition questions are there. He also has pocket issues similar to what Pickett suffers from.
That said if they want to use their first-round pick somewhere else, a day-two pick could be brought in to apply pressure. Pickett could still be given the opportunity to keep his job, but if his path continues, they could turn to the rookie and give him a shot.
Steelers could use their first-round pick to land a top prospect
This is a broader solution, but if the Steelers have identified that Pickett isn’t their guy moving forward, they should consider using their top pick on a replacement. That is easier said than done, as despite this being a deeper quarterback class, the best of the group will likely go earlier than the Steelers pick.
This is one of my main issues with settling for a middling quarterback. They do enough to keep you in the playoff hunt, but not enough to win in January. This gives you a later draft pick, which means you miss out on the top quarterback prospects. You rinse and repeat until you finally move on from said middling quarterback.
The Steelers will likely have their first-round pick in the early 20s this year. That will make landing a top prospect hard. Caleb Williams is out, as no matter who has the top pick, if earned or traded for, Williams will almost certainly go there.
I would love the opportunity to land Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. Both have great arms and have flashed the ability to be franchise guys. They will require big trades to get them though. At least they have the traits to be elite though.
You could also settle for lesser prospects like Michael Penix or Bo Nix. It wouldn’t require as steep of a move up, but you also get what you pay for. Both are older prospects and lack some traits that could make them elite.
Either way, in this circumstance, you are hitching your wagon to a new horse. I would roll with one of these rookies and trade Pickett away to the highest bidder. This will help recoup some of the resources that will be required to move up and put your confidence in the new face of the team.
The Steelers aren’t in a great spot when it comes to quarterback in 2024. Pickett doesn’t seem like the answer, but they also aren’t in a position to draft his replacement. Unless they are making a big move up to land a dynamic prospect, the best option for the Steelers will likely be in-house for next season.