Breaking down every scenario for Najee Harris's Steelers season

The Steelers have a rebuilt team this offseason, as both the offense and defense have a lot of new faces and a new identity to incorporate. While I have some optimism about the season, I also recognize that there are some key young players that will ultimately determine the overall success of this team.

I’m creating and analyzing the variance I think we can see in these players’ seasons, from a horrible season, to what I expect, to them blowing my expectations out of the water. I’m assuming the player stays healthy and stays relatively consistent with some of his stats. Any variance will be where we see the projected improvement or lack thereof.

We started this series with Kenny Pickett, and we will continue with Najee Harris today.

Harris enters his third season with the team, and as anyone that follows my work knows, I haven’t been impressed. I was never keen on taking a running back in the first round, and Harris has proven that to me. While he has had respectable stats, he has benefited from a heavy workload as opposed to efficient running.

He enters his third season in the best position to succeed. The line has been rebuilt, and while there should still be growing pains, the line should gel eventually. As such, Harris should be set to have his best season.

Above is the mean average of his first two seasons in the NFL. While many are quick to point to his two years of 1000+ yards, a 17-game schedule, and heavy workload have yielded these results. He flashes some hard running, but he will need some help to become a true top back in the league.

What if Harris has an average season for the Steelers?

It was hard to gauge what an average season would look like for Harris. On one hand, a pair of seasons that were lackluster in nature and inefficient makes me believe that he will remain that way. On the other hand, this team has an improved offensive line and has focused this offense around Harris and the run game.

What makes Harris tricky is his hype (consistently high) and the lack of production despite the less-than-ideal situation. Is Harris purely a byproduct of a poor offensive line? If he is, then he may disappoint this season, at least early on. This line is going to be better, but it will need some time to get used to playing together.

Thus, I predict that Harris has another slow start to the year as the line gets its act together. He struggles to produce on his own and has a mediocre average early in the season. Once the line improves, so does Harris.

It is his most efficient season to date. He finally averages over four yards a carry for the season and sees a slight increase in workload from last year. No, he isn’t going to be the only back for this offense, but he makes the most of his opportunities.

His receiving workload, while not impressive, is still a slight upgrade from last year. I strived to have a true average workload based on his two seasons in the league on top of a slightly better efficiency. This line should give him more opportunities, and Harris should be productive even if he still lacks the big plays you want in a star back.

What if Harris has a below-average season for the Steelers?

I’ll dip down the negative path before looking at the positives. Frankly, this wasn’t a hard category to extrapolate, as Harris has produced like a below-average player through his first two seasons. This is, in essence, just a continuation of last year.

Harris maintains the 17 carries a game I projected for him in his average season, but the slight uptick in efficiency isn’t there and instead remains consistent at 3.8 yards per carry. Let me be clear, there is a lot more to a running back than yards per carry, but if you are struggling to get over four, it really is a ding to the player’s ability overall. Harris has yet to do that and continues to lack there in a below-average season.

His rushing scores also dip a little, as he loses some goal-line work to his backups. Harris is a powerful runner, but he doesn’t always hit the hole with full power. Frankly, his short-yardage work has left me wanting more since he entered the league. He continues to struggle there in this case.

The receiving totals also continue to regress. While he wasn’t an electric receiver as a rookie, he was a capable check-down option. He lost a lot of those snaps to Jaylen Warren last year, and that continues this year. Worse yet, he isn’t overly effective when catching passes out of the backfield.

A season like this would indicate two things. The line likely didn’t make the jump many expected, and/or Harris is truly a pedestrian player. Odds are it would be the latter, as this line is built around establishing a physical running game. If Harris can’t have his best season behind this line, we have some issues.

What if Harris has an above-average season for the Steelers?

This is just the opposite for Harris. The previous scenario likely meant that the line didn’t live up to expectations, but the slight increase in production means the opposite. The Steelers investments paid off, as they allowed for an effective running game spearheaded by Harris.

We see his total runs jump over 300. This means that the game plan worked, and the team, for the most part, was able to constantly ground defenses down. Harris holds up his end of the bargain, finally having a healthy average and having his best rushing season as a pro. The line gels, opens up holes, and allows for the team to finally have a good ground game.

While this is a productive season, Harris still lacks the big runs you want out of the position. While 4.4 yards per carry would be a welcome sight, his game is still predicated on workload as opposed to great efficiency. The new line certainly helps out, but Harris still doesn’t produce like you would want a first-round running back to produce.

He isn’t going to net 74 receptions like his rookie year, but that number ticks up and he matches the yards per catch that he had as a rookie. It isn’t a dynamic year on that front, but it likely won’t be as long as Warren maintains his third-down role.

Where you really see some healthy growth is as a scorer. Harris has a career year and finds the end zone 13 total times. While he has been able to hit double-digit scores in both seasons, he really becomes a steady producer once this offense gets into the red zone.

What if Harris has a bad season for the Steelers?

Let me be frank in saying, I really struggle to see Harris hitting either the top or bottom of the scenarios I laid out. While I am not overly impressed with him, I can’t see him completely falling off. Compare that to Pickett, where I think all options were on the table as he enters his second season.

If Harris has a season like this, it indicates to me that he is likely wearing down. Again, he will be running behind the best offensive line that he has seen as a pro, and given his clear need for a good line to produce, it should only help. If it doesn’t, Harris is in trouble, and his career will be in jeopardy.

For the first time in his career, Harris fails to crack 1000 rushing yards. He still sees a heavy workload akin to what he had last year, but he is horribly inefficient. Again, a running back is much more than his yards per carry, but only averaging 3.5 on 272 carries screams a poor performance.

This also means the offense likely struggled unless Warren played a bigger role. The goal of this group is to run effectively to wear down the opposition. If Harris isn’t effective, this offense won’t jive.

He isn’t a real factor in the pass game either. He struggles with the ball in his hands and is a poor option even for a checkdown. While his total yards crack 1100, it is entirely due to usage as opposed to actual good plays.

Harris also falls off as a scorer, only finding the endzone four times. A year like this means that Harris is likely starting to break down. Usage and age will do that, and while this is earlier than I would expect, it wouldn’t shock me. Again, I struggle to see this scenario playing out, as Harris being this bad behind a better line would be a bit shocking.

What if Harris has a great season for the Steelers?

If Harris has a year like the one I’ve outlined above, I will eat some crow about my opinions of him. For those of you that don’t know, I think the process of drafting him in the first round was foolish and he is a very average player. That opinion hasn’t changed much so, as his career has been inefficient.

I want a first-round running back to be a true game-changer, not just someone that can compile some stats or benefit from strong offensive lines. I don’t believe that Harris is that player, but a best-case-scenario season would change that view.

While he sees a lot of carries, he is also an extremely productive player with those carries. 4.8 yards per carry would be a welcome sight and would indicate some longer runs. Harris will never be a player to bust off long runs all the time, but a higher average means he got some space on some runs and created more at the second level.

 Harris also has an effective year as a receiver. Warren still bites into that workload, but Harris makes plays in space and with the ball in his hands. He doesn’t need elite receiving numbers, but a bettering of his 2022 showing would be nice.

He also finally becomes a top-tier scorer, finding the endzone 17 total times. He also nearly racks up 2000 total yards for this offense. While a new offensive line should get some credit for this success, it also indicates that Harris may have turned a corner and is on a path of greatness.

Each of these scenarios are oddly close. While the outliers are there, I am consistently expecting Harris to cross 1000 rushing yards again. That doesn’t mean he has a great season, as this team likes to feature him despite some inefficiencies. I would be shocked if he varies much though, even behind a better offensive line.

I keep pulling myself to the average season I outlined as what I think is realistic. Again, he has better production due to the line, but he is mostly the same player as before. In no way does that make him bad, but it certainly keeps the discussion of his validity as a first-round pick alive.