With the new NFL season upon us, the talk is shifting away from offseason topics to ones centered around this season. The Steelers have seen their stock rise in recent weeks. A strong preseason and a team with a clear identity have caused a lot of excitement for this franchise.
That will ultimately be put to the test with a potential playoff run, but I wanted to focus on the individual players here and rate their chances of making the Pro Bowl. While the Pro Bowl isn’t what it once was, it is still a good measuring stick for how good a player is.
I’ve given ratings for every starter (plus some extra players that I could see garnering some buzz) as follows: Lock (>95% chance), Likely (>75% chance), Sleeper (~50% chance), Not Likely (<25% chance), and Impossible (<5% chance). These are all my opinions, but also take into account perceived roles, national recognition, competition, full health for the season, and of course, raw talent.
With all of that said, here are my Pro Bowl odds for the Steelers roster this season.
Steelers quarterback Pro Bowl odds
Not Likely: Kenny Pickett
The only quarterback I’ll mention, as ideally none of the other options play much, I can already hear some in the fanbase upset with this rating. Kenny Pickett has quickly grown his fanbase, and some view him as a potentially elite player already. For a wide variety of reasons though, I don’t have the same hopes this season.
For starters, despite a strong preseason, I don’t see Pickett putting up the needed stats to earn Pro Bowl consideration. This offense is built around a strong running game, and that will inherently limit Pickett’s opportunity to really ball out. He can, and hopefully will, post an efficient season, but will that be enough to make the Pro Bowl?
I would lean towards no. Add in the fact that the AFC is stacked at quarterback and the odds go even lower. I can’t imagine that Pickett does enough to warrant a Pro Bowl nod over a healthy Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers, or Lamar Jackson. There is a slimmer of hope, as second-year quarterbacks have a history of breaking out, but I just don’t see it happening with Pickett this season.
Steelers runners Pro Bowl odds
Likely: Najee Harris
Najee Harris is a hard one. On paper, his potential role in this offense mixed in with his name value should make him a lock to make the Pro Bowl. On the other hand, Harris has proven to be a really inefficient running back so far in his career. He hasn’t been able to make the most of his carries.
Ultimately, I gave him good odds to make the Pro Bowl. Assuming his play gets a little better and he is a centerpiece of this offense, Harris should have a career year for the Steelers. With so many backs in the AFC in stables, Harris could make a run at the rushing crown this year, and that fact boosts his odds of making the Pro Bowl.
Sleeper: Connor Heyward
This is one of my bold predictions in this post and one that likely looks a little puzzling. The Steelers list Connor Heyward as a tight end, but by all accounts he will take any of the fullback snaps that this team needs. Add in his receiving and rushing ability and he could quietly have a good season.
While not his technical position, I could see the voting committee listing him there since the Steelers don’t have a true fullback. If he does some damage in the receiving game, he could earn the nod. A bit of a longshot, but I like his odds of garnering some votes if he is listed as a fullback.
Not Likely: Jaylen Warren
I really wanted to list Jaylen Warren as a sleeper, as I have a feeling that he will be a bigger producer on this offense than many are expecting him to be. He had another strong camp, and the general opinion of him is high. Even though he isn’t a conventional starter, I could see him making some noise this year.
Warren would need to produce like Tony Pollard did a season ago, but if he proves to be an effective player and Harris misses some time with injury, it could be enough. I’m not expecting it, but his odds are better than zero as to if he could make the Pro Bowl this season.
Steelers pass catchers Pro Bowl odds
Likely: George Pickens
Of all the core receiving threats for this team, I have to like the odds of George Pickens making the Pro Bowl the most. The sophomore receiver appears to have taken his game to the next level, adding some more route diversity and flashed the ability to make a play with the ball in his hands. Add in his seemingly routine big catch and the national spotlight will likely be on him.
The only reason I don’t have him as a lock is that I’m still unsure of how this offense will function each week. If it is as run-heavy as it may seem, the targets may not be there for Pickens. That said, if he can cross the 1000-yard receiving mark and continue to keep his name relevant with insane catches, I think he ultimately gets the nod.
Sleeper: Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson
I wanted to put Pat Freiermuth in the likely section, but I’m just not sure he is there yet. He is undoubtedly a top-five tight end in the AFC and I expect another strong season from him, but he faces some stiff competition.
The AFC Pro Bowl tight end scene has been dominated by Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce. Both are likely set to be voted into the game again assuming they stay healthy, so that leaves Freiermuth as a potential third, which may edge him out of the game. His play may be worthy, but he likely won’t compare to the standard bearers.
Diontae Johnson is in a similar spot as Pickens, although I don’t expect the amazing catch to occur as often with him. If the targets aren’t there, I struggle to see a way for him to make a serious case. The offensive scheme could very well limit the receivers’ Pro Bowl upside.
Not Likely: Calvin Austin
Let me be clear, Calvin Austin won’t make the Pro Bowl on his regular season accolades alone. It will be much more due to his return ability, but we saw Tyreek Hill earn a Pro Bowl nod early in his career because of his returns and his ability to make big plays on offense. It seems slim, but not impossible.
Impossible: Allen Robinson
I love the Allen Robinson addition for this offense, as it gives the offense a capable tough slot receiver that can make the tough catch. That said, I don’t expect this season to be a great one statistically for the veteran. Targets will be tough to come by and add in his limited role in the slot and I don’t see Robinson making enough waves to find his way back to the Pro Bowl.
Steelers offensive line Pro Bowl odds
Sleeper: Isaac Seumalo, James Daniels
The Steelers offensive line is a much-improved unit, and while I expect that to yield some instant results, the name recognition isn’t there yet. If anyone gets some hype around them, it will likely be one of the guards.
Both James Daniels and Isaac Seumalo were signed to big deals in consecutive seasons, and they have the strongest name recognition of the unit. Both have also showcased some great film in the past. If this line takes some major steps forward and the guards are dominant, it could be enough to get at least one of them into the Pro Bowl.
Impossible: Mason Cole, Dan Moore, Chukwuma Okorafor, Broderick Jones
I toyed with moving Mason Cole and even Dan Moore to the not likely spot, but ultimately it doesn’t seem like it is going to happen. Cole is a steady presence along the line, and while he would likely be the most deserving of this group, I struggle to see him getting the nod, even amidst a weak AFC center room.
Moore is still a player on the rise, and I could see this season going well for the veteran. That said, with Broderick Jones right on his heels, I doubt he makes enough of an impact to see the Pro Bowl. As for Chukwuma Okorafor, he has hit his ceiling and isn’t a Pro Bowl-caliber tackle.
Steelers defensive line Pro Bowl odds
Lock: Cameron Heyward
Unfortunately, and not due to his own play, Cameron Heyward is the weakest lock on this team. While one of the elite players on this defense, he is constantly overshadowed by other names on teams that put more of a focus on their interior linemen. It wasn’t until recently that Heyward began getting noticed for his consistently dominant play.
That said, if he has another strong season on a very talented defense, it will be hard to keep him off the Pro Bowl roster. While age will eventually catch up to him, Heyward is poised to have yet another strong season and should be a lock to make the Pro Bowl.
Not Likely: Larry Ogunjobi, Keeanu Benton
I almost put Larry Ogunjobi as a sleeper. I know he wasn’t a great statistical player last season, but I am hoping that a full offseason in this scheme makes an impact. Ogunjobi could return to his usual form, which is a disruptive defensive lineman who can get after the quarterback.
The issue is, even in his best seasons, he has never made it to a Pro Bowl. I could see Ogunjobi rebounding and having a strong season, but unless he really takes off, a Pro Bowl nod just doesn’t seem possible. Again, expect a stronger output, but a Pro Bowl doesn’t seem feasible.
As for Keeanu Benton, I do believe that he will have one of the bigger impacts of this rookie class, but his role will likely limit him. Pure nose tackles aren’t common in the Pro Bowl anymore, and while Benton will play all over the line, he likely won’t have the stats to back up a nod as a rookie.
Steelers linebackers' Pro Bowl odds
Lock: T.J. Watt
This one isn’t really in question. Assuming T.J. Watt stays healthy and plays as expected, he will once again make the Pro Bowl. He is an elite defender and sack artist as well as a nationally recognized name. Not only will a healthy Watt be in the Pro Bowl, but he will also be contending for Defensive Player of the Year.
Likely: Alex Highsmith
In all honestly, Alex Highsmith was one of the more notable Pro Bowl snubs last year. That is one of those “nationally reconized” issues that can pop up. Despite being one of the league leaders in sacks, Highsmith wasn’t a household name yet, and it cost him a spot in the game.
I expect things to be different this season. Assuming he has another strong season, it should produce his first Pro Bowl berth. Back-to-back seasons of strong play and double-digit sacks is more than deserving of making it to this game.
Not Likley: Cole Holcomb
Alright, I’ll buy into the hype a little bit. While I wasn’t overly thrilled with the Cole Holcomb signing when the details were announced, he is bringing something to this team that they haven’t had in a while. While far from a perfect player, he does everything he can to make an impact on the field and has shown that through the preseason.
Consistent tackling along with a few turnovers could give him an impressive resume. Ultimately, I don’t see this happening, but there aren’t a lot of notable linebackers in the AFC this season. A strong showing from Holcomb and a little luck elsewhere could get him a Pro Bowl nod.
Impossible: Kwon Alexander, Elandon Roberts
Neither Kwon Alexander nor Elandon Roberts were brought in to be Pro Bowl players. Instead, they provide a physical presence in the middle of this defense. While they may not see any votes, I will enjoy watching them lay some lumber against opposing offenses this season since the defense has been missing that for the past few seasons.
Steelers defensive backs' Pro Bowl odds
Lock: Minkah Fitzpatrick
Behind Watt in the locks is Minkah Fitzpatrick. The veteran safety is arguably the best at his position, and he is one of the most recognizable defenders in the league. Assuming he is healthy and plays like he has in the past, there is no question as to if he will be voted to the Pro Bowl once again.
Not Likely: Patrick Peterson, Joey Porter
Do I think a return to the Pro Bowl is in the cards for Patrick Peterson? Probably not, as he hasn’t been there since 2018 and I’m skeptical of his age and fit with this defense. That said, this front seven should force some bad passes, and Peterson can still snag interceptions. If he plays well enough and can capitalize on some mistakes, I could see him sneaking in.
Joey Porter has the benefit of being a top rookie in his class. Because of this, his name is fresh on the minds of a lot of fans. Like Peterson, if he can capitalize on some bad passes and hold his own in coverage, he could generate some buzz. That said, I would be surprised to see either make the Pro Bowl this year.
Impossible: Levi Wallace
I like Levi Wallace more than most. He is a steady cornerback who isn’t flashy and covers well. Similarly to Roberts and Alexander in the linebacker room though, Wallace wasn’t brought in to be a Pro Bowl player. I’m fine with a steady player even if it doesn’t yield any nominations.
While I won’t have a separate page for them, all of the Steelers specialists are also impossible. The only realistic name is Chris Boswell, but Justin Tucker will continue to be the sole kicker representing the AFC as long as he is healthy.
Who do you think has the best odds of making the Pro Bowl off the Steelers roster? Some names are obvious, and some may come as a shock, but there are some serious contenders to make it to the Pro Bowl this season.