The draft is over, and the focus of the Steelers is on getting their roster ready for the preseason and training camp. While I am still thoroughly impressed with the overall class, the time that has passed has allowed me to really dig into the intricacies of the class.
While more of a narrative based post, I wanted to try and come up with the best and worst case scenarios for the Steelers entire rookie class. While I branch into some specifics in this post, this is meant to give a general, realistic (everyone isn’t going to start) view of what could happen this season.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Broderick Jones
Best case scenario
Broderick Jones enters the season with a lot of fanfare, and it isn’t hard to see why. The Steelers haven’t selected an offensive tackle in the first round for longer than I have been alive, and this is their first offensive lineman in the first round since David DeCastro. This line is in need of some top-level talent.
Jones, while raw, fits the bill of a potential top tackle. He has the size and athleticism to dominate other players, and he flashed that ability in school. He does the same in training camp, dominating opposing edge rushers and quickly standing out.
This lands Jones the left tackle role out of camp, pushing Dan Moore into a swing tackle role. Jones is shaky over the first eight weeks of the season. While his run defense is on point, he can get beaten by more refined pass rushers who utilize a wide array of moves to get around Jones. He gives ups four sacks over that stretch.
Once he settles into his job though, he shows progress. He grows into his role and settles down as a blocker. He only gives up one more sack over the remainder of the season. There are still some growing pains to get through, but Jones looks the part of a top tackle and was well deserving of the pick.
Worst case scenario
Considering Jones was the 14th overall pick though, fans are restless to see him start. The team gives in after another mediocre effort from Moore, and Jones becomes the starter in week five. The results are mixed. He seems uncertain in Pat Myers aggressive scheme, and for every good rep he has, he puts up two bad ones.
While he slowly flashes improvements, an injury in week eleven sidelines him for two weeks. Moore returns, and while his highs aren’t as high as Jones, he provides steady blocking and the offense functions smoothly. Jones regains his starting gig after his injury, and the offense notably regresses.
He finishes the season as the starter, but his pass blocking has been putrid and his run blocking didn’t make up for it. No, he isn’t a bust, but he looks worse than many expect. The learning curve may take more than just his rookie season to get through.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Joey Porter
Best case scenario
Joey Porter enters the Steelers with arguably more fanfare than their first-round pick in Jones. With his ties to the city and rare build for the position, he is already a fan favorite. The cornerback room also needed some help, as they lack a true star.
He doesn’t earn the starting role right out of camp, instead serving as a dime cornerback as the team tries and slot Patrick Peterson into the slot on obvious passing downs. This gives him a chance to get his feet wet on the outside. He does just that, picking off a pass on his third career snap.
The results are pretty mixed early on for Porter. Man coverage is a breeze for him, using his bulk to bully receivers at the line of scrimmage and using his length to break up passes. Zone is a different story, as he struggles to read plays as well and is more often out of position. While the Steelers don’t completely do away with zone defense, they decide to focus on being a more man heavy secondary.
By week six, Porter has replaced Levi Wallace as the primary outside cornerback, and he and Peterson become a tough duo to pass on. While Porter doesn’t completely lock down his side of the field, he becomes the de facto number one cornerback as teams opt to throw away from him when in man coverage.
He isn’t a perfect rookie, and he blows too many assignments in zone coverage, but Porter certainly looks the part of a star. He tallies three total interceptions and is a physical run defender. He lands third on the defensive rookie of the year voting, and the team is confident that they have a great outside cornerback following his rookie season.
Worst case scenario
I believe Porter’s success as a rookie will ultimately come down to how much zone the Steelers want to play. Peterson comes from a zone-heavy Vikings secondary, and teams tend to rely on zone when their secondaries lack talent. Pittsburgh certainly qualifies there.
The Steelers ultimately rank towards the middle of the NFL in terms of zone vs man coverage, and Porter is affected inversely by it. Like before, Porter begins the season as the third cornerback playing in dime defense. He is picked on though, as he can’t quite seem to grasp the zone scheme that well.
He never ultimately earns the starting job, as he only starts six total games (two for Peterson, four for Wallace). While he shines and has some breakups in man coverage, his rookie season is ultimately a disappointment. He allows five receiving touchdowns and fails to record an interception. Porter will need to learn a zone defense no matter what, but having such a mix on defense ends poorly for the rookie cornerback.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Keeanu Benton
Best case scenario
Keeanu Benton enters the Steelers training camp with the best position to initially succeed. Long-term, I expect other names from this class to surpass him in terms of talent, but Benton is a pro-ready defensive lineman from a similar system to what Pittsburgh runs.
He looks legit early on and easily beats out the other nose tackle options for the starting spot. No, a traditional nose tackle isn’t going to play the majority of snaps, but it gives Benton a way to get snaps early.
He does just that, and for the first half of the season, he becomes the plug in the middle of this defense that has been missing for so long. His stats aren’t gaudy, but his impact is felt. He constantly takes on double teams and uses his power to disrupt run plays. He only lands half a sack, but he does enough to have his game noticed.
With his progress and talent obvious, he begins earning some snaps in nickel defense, and more specifically when the Steelers run that formation on early downs. He continues to impress as a run defender, but his ability to slip around blockers is further on display as he begins to get more quarterback pressures.
He finishes the season playing roughly 50 percent of the defensive snaps and amasses three sacks. While not a force of nature, his ability as a run defender is evident early on and he grows as a pass rusher. He firmly entrenches himself as a capable starter moving forward as both a nose tackle and a defensive end.
Worst case scenario
I’m fairly confident that Benton will have the earliest role out of this group. There aren’t many great nose tackle options on this roster, and it is a position that he has a lot of experience with. That said, Benton needs to show that he can be more than just a two-down player.
He fails to do that early on, as he is only playing about 30 percent of the defensive snaps and only on the field as a base nose tackle. He still pops on tape given his ability to stop the run, but he offers the team next to nothing as a pass rusher.
That doesn’t improve as the season goes on, and he proves that his floor, while high, also limits his ceiling. He fails to log a sack and becomes more of a presence elsewhere along the line. He isn’t a bad player nor a bad fit, but that versatility and ability to develop as a pass rusher never show up during his rookie season.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Darnell Washington
Best case scenario
Darnell Washington was a luxury pick, but at 93rd overall and with rare size and traits, it was a luxury worth taking. He won’t be a conventional starter, but he can quickly carve out a role in this offense even though the tight end position usually struggles to translate early on in the NFL.
Washington dominates camp and the preseason with his blocking ability, earning his nickname of “the 6th offensive lineman.” Not only is he a good blocker though, but he showcases soft hands and the ability to use his size to gain extra yards on receptions. He leads the Steelers in receiving yards during the preseason.
His receiving ability doesn’t translate early on, as he logs just two receptions over the first four games despite playing nearly 45 percent of the snaps. During that time, Pittsburgh has the top rushing offense in the NFL, as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both consistently churn out big games. Washington’s ability to block along with the offensive line improvements.
He begins growing a role in the offense after a game without Pat Freiermuth, where Washington logs ten receptions, over 100 yards, and two scores. The rapport built from that game carries over for the rest of the season, as he continues to feature more in the offense while still being the violent blocker he is.
He ends the season with 33 receptions, over 300 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. His blocking and ability in the red zone make him provide the Steelers with a lot to look forward to from their big weapon moving forward.
Worst case scenario
Washington seems like a safe bet to see the field as the second tight end as a rookie for at least his blocking ability. I’m as big of a fan of Zach Gentry as anyone out there, but Washington is a more polished blocker, and it wouldn’t be hard to better Gentry’s ability as a receiver.
The issue is, during training camp, Washington struggles to keep his knees healthy, and he misses a significant portion of the preseason. He starts the season as an inactive for the first three games, as he needs to catch up from the time missed. He finally sees the field in week four, playing 15 offensive snaps, all on running plays.
Like above, Washington shines when asked to block, but his receiving ability is worse than many expected. He can’t separate, fails to run crisp routes, and he doesn’t play as athletically as he tested. He earns snaps as a blocker, but he can’t clearly surpass Gentry on the depth chart.
His knees also continue to plague him, causing him to miss five various games for injury. Because of the early season inactive games, he only plays half the season, logs roughly 15 percent of the offensive snaps, and records six receptions and scores once.
Washington looks good as a blocker, but the knees seem like an issue, and his receiving ability is marginal. He figures to slot in as the second tight end moving forward, but the desire and focus on more two-tight end sets have faded.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Nick Herbig
Best case scenario
As time has progressed, I would argue that the Nick Herbig pick is my least favorite of this class (and I still like a lot of aspects of his game). Despite seemingly wanting to get some edge snaps out of him, the team makes it clear early in training camp that he is going to be an off-ball linebacker first and a pass rusher second.
That doesn’t lead to a lot of defensive success early, but Herbig carves out a role on special teams early in the season. His pass-rush background makes him a menace on punts and his gritty play makes him a perfect fit for coverage units. He blocks a punt and leads the team in special teams tackles as a rookie.
His defensive impact is less felt. He gets a helmet on game days but is clearly fourth on the depth chart as he learns his new role. He does log some snaps in a blowout loss in week eight, and he racks up three tackles and a sack. They use him as a traditional linebacker, but he shifts over to the edge on occasion and rushers the passer as he did in college.
By the season's end, he only appears in five games on defense but is a star special teams player. He flashes the ability to be a good linebacker in his limited play, and the expectation is for him to compete for a starting role there in 2024. He occasionally rushes off the edge, but Herbig has found a role as a linebacker in the NFL
Worst case scenario
There are some continuities from this scenario to the last one. Specifically, Herbig becomes a core special teams player for this team. Unless he is injured, he seems like a perfect fit for that unit, and I expect him to carve out a role there as a rookie no matter what.
The issue lies in the team viewing Herbig as an edge rusher despite his lack of size and length. Convinced that he can be the third edge rusher on the depth chart, the Steelers roll into the season with him as the primary backup to the starters. He rotational snaps immediately on defense.
His lack of length makes him a poor fit though, as pro-level tackles consistently bully him out of plays and leave him as an unimpactful defender. He occasionally gets some effort sacks, as his motor doesn’t turn off, but he is clearly a weak link on the edge.
He actually plays more defensive snaps in this scenario, close to 25 percent of them, but the tape is clear that he is the wink link. He logs 1.5 sacks, but the team quietly moves him off the ball after the season concludes, delaying his transition by a year, unfortunately.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Cory Trice
Best case scenario
Laying out the best and worst-case scenario for a seventh-round pick is no easy task, but Cory Trice isn’t your typical seventh-round pick. He has the talent of a day-two pick in a typical cornerback draft but almost fell out of the draft due to the depth at cornerback as well as his injury concerns.
No, there is no path for Trice to start early in his rookie season, but he stays healthy in camp and flashes the ability we know he has in coverage. More importantly, he settles in as a gunner on special teams, using his athleticism to make plays there during camp and the preseason.
He is a healthy scratch for the first seven weeks but gets a helmet when Patrick Peterson misses a game due to health. He plays no defensive snaps, but he does force a fumble on a punt return. He continues to be active on game day following. He is mostly reserved to special teams, but occasionally gets a shot as the outside cornerback.
The Steelers are locked into the fourth seed of the playoffs during the final game, so the Steelers decide to rest some starters and get their backups some snaps. Trice plays 70 percent of the snaps at outside cornerback and looks the part, only allowing one reception and snagging an interception.
He isn’t overly impactful in year one, but he stays healthy and develops as a special teams player. There are bright spots and plenty worth being excited about, and Trice appears to have a shot at being a starter in the near future at cornerback.
Worst case scenario
Trice enters camp as one of the most hyped seventh-round picks in recent Steelers history. He looks all right but doesn’t set the world on fire as so many wanted. For every strong play in coverage, he has a bad rep, looking stiff and struggling to keep up with receivers.
The talk quickly surfaces on if he should return to safety. This becomes heated after multiple poor coverages in the preseason. Unfortunately, Trice is injured in the final preseason game, so the team fails to have him log any snaps at safety.
They do carry him on the active roster and plan to have him return. He clears his medical window and returns to the roster, but he reaggravates his injury shortly afterward and returns to injured reserve for the season. All in all, he fails to flash anything significant and spends most of the season injured.
Steelers best/worst case scenario for Spencer Anderson
Best case scenario
Spencer Anderson is the only player I have without a clear path to significant playing time, as he is a mostly interior offensive lineman in a crowded room. He has good size for the interior and has experience playing almost anywhere which should boost his value.
He does just that in training camp, seeing snaps at both guard spots, center, and even some tackle work. While isn’t overly impressive at any one position, he has the versatility to wear a lot of hats for this offense.
That versatility earns him a roster spot, although he isn’t activated each week as the essential last lineman. He ultimately dresses for ten games due to various injuries and compiles 100 total snaps as a rookie. He isn’t a flashy player or makes incredible blocks, but he can backup multiple positions and hold his own in the short term.
Worst case scenario
I’ll keep this one short. Anderson has a lot of versatility, but that lack of a defining trait causes him to struggle in camp. He can’t adjust to multiple different positions and struggles to see the field and gain any additional opportunities.
He flounders on the backend of the depth chart and is eventually passed for other low-tier names that have better practices and game tape. He sees limited time with the last-string offensive line in games and struggles. He is cut outright and lands on the Raiders practice squad for the year.
While this is more of a narrative piece, I’m curious as to what you see as a realistic best and worst-case scenario for the Steelers rookie class. I am very high on this group, and I can’t wait to see them on the field for this team.