Steelers run first offense might be better than I thought

The Steelers have made their intentions clear this offseason. Despite the league being dominated by the passing game, Pittsburgh is focused on a grueling run game and a stifling defense. This seems to be due to Kenny Pickett entering his second season.

While a lot of teams build around a rookie QB in year two with elite weapons, the Steelers have decided to instead build a reserved offense intent on protecting their quarterback and limiting his struggles. Run-heavy offenses aren’t uncommon, but I have been adamant that this isn’t the best way to win.

This isn’t to say that running offenses can’t succeed but for a team that should have its sights set on a Super Bowl run, this style of play has yielded questionable results. I decided to take a deeper dive into this and see just what realistic expectations should be.

It seems like a safe bet that the Steelers should finish as a top-eight rushing unit this season. Frankly, based on how this team is built right now if they don’t finish as a top-eight rushing unit, we might be in trouble. If everything goes as planned, the passing game will be secondary as the offense churns through Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

What I have done is taken the top-eight rushing offenses for each of the past five years and tried to find some averages from them to help give some realistic expectations for the Steelers this season. I was surprised by the final results, as it certainly went against my bias and expectation for this team. With all of that said, here is the official study I did as to what to expect from the Steelers offense in 2023

What can the Steelers expect from their offense?

Based on the study and assuming the Steelers meet the set qualifications, expectations for this offense should be higher than it has been in recent seasons. Personally, I had a lackluster view of this offense and expected these numbers to be lower than where they came in at.

The offense as a whole should be close to the top-ten unit all said and done. While the overall offense numbers are relatively wide apart, there have only been nine teams in this span that have finished with a top rushing offense but a bottom-half total offense. The two worst cases were the Titans in 2018 and the Patriots in 2020, who both had the 27th-best offense overall.

On the flip side of things, you had 11 top rushing offenses go on to be top-five offenses overall. While the NFL is a passing-dominated league on all accounts, there is still a place for a good ground game, and that in turn can yield a more complete offense.

The average record isn’t anything to look past either. Top rushing teams averaged 9.95 wins to only 6.425 losses in a given season. A 10-7 record (essentially) is more than enough to make the playoffs and be competitive.

The playoff record was a little better than I thought as well. Top rushing teams tended to make the playoffs and get knocked off somewhere between the wild card and divisional round. Four of these teams did ultimately make it to the Super Bowl, and one actually won the whole thing, that being the 2018 Patriots.

Based on these stats alone, I would expect the Steelers to be a competitive unit, record a winning season, make the playoffs, and have essentially a 50/50 shot at making winning one game once they get to the postseason.

For an offense that has sputtered these past two seasons, that would be a welcome change. No, I don’t believe this makes them a Super Bowl favorite, but their playoff odds do increase, in my opinion, after seeing these numbers.

Let's get more realistic for the Steelers

One of the primary issues with the general study above was the number of offenses that heavily rely on the quarterback run game. Sure, Pickett can make plays on the ground, but he isn’t in the realm of a Lamar Jackson when tasked with running the ball. He will scramble, but he shouldn’t be counted on as a core runner.

I took into account Pickett’s best rushing year at college as well as his results last year extrapolated to a full season to determine that, realistically, Pickett should account for somewhere near 15 percent of the team’s total rushing yards. This will help take out results from teams that feature a more competent running quarterback.

Again, I expected some lackluster numbers, as we have seen the duel-threat quarterback find some success in the league. To my surprise, every stat I was looking at improved once I filtered out offenses that had more than 15 percent of their rushing output come because of the quarterback.

The total offense was now averaged out to 8.25, meaning that, in theory, the Steelers should be looking at a top-ten offense overall. The worst total offense came from the Browns in 2021. While their rushing offense was a top unit, they only mustered up the 20th-best overall offense that year. Adding to that, by eliminating teams that had more than 15 percent of their rushing yards come from their quarterback, only twice has their total offense been in the bottom half of the league.

Wins and losses also significantly improved, as the team would be projected to have 10.5 wins and only 5.85 losses. That is a healthy gain, and it once again indicates that having a top-rushing offense won’t inhibit an offense overall. In total, there have only been three teams in the past five years with losing records that meet these qualifications.

Playoffs also got better, as the team was just shy of averaging a divisional-round playoff record. This means not only would the Steelers be expected to return to the playoffs, but they would also more than likely get their first win in the postseason since 2016.

Potential faults in this study for the Steelers

This study is a very general look trying to establish some trends to apply to this offense for the upcoming season. In no way does it guarantee results, as a myriad of other issues could come up and impact what the final result is from this season.

For starters, this study assumes the Steelers are among the top eight rushing offenses in the league. On paper they should be, the team hasn’t been in the top eight since 2007. While the offense is built around a run game, that doesn’t guarantee top results.

Harris hasn't been a notoriously efficient back. While he should be running behind the best line of his pro career, he still needs to prove that he is more than just a plodder. As well, Matt Canada doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and rightly so given two lackluster seasons as the Steelers offensive coordinator.

I also say this: the success of the team will still rely on Pickett and how he progresses in year two. While there is a track record of success around a consistent run game, most of those teams still had above-average quarterback play. While Pickett progressed as a rookie, he also struggled in a lot of circumstances and needs to play better in year two.

Finally, while not a flaw in the study, the top-level success is less than ideal. While I was surprised to see so many rushing offenses succeed, the status quo seems to be about one or two games in the playoffs. Top rushing teams have been Super Bowl competitors and champions about 20 percent of the time over the last five years.

Again, I was surprised by the results of this study. I expected a lot more mediocrity, but if the Steelers can throw together a good year on the ground, odds are they will be a relatively successful team in 2023.