With the NFL offseason almost upon us, I wanted to take some time to really dig into the three offensive linemen that the Steelers could potentially replace this offseason. More importantly, I wanted to look at the numbers and see rank the three in order of who should be the top priority vs. who could be given another year to start.
While some will argue that all three should be replaced, given the surplus of needs on this team, I don’t think that’s likely. That said, I would expect at least one of these players to be on the bench and/or off the roster entirely in 2023.
What I’m looking at for the Steelers
I’ve compiled the PFF rankings and stats for the following three Steelers players: Dan Moore, Chukwuma Okorafor, and Kevin Dotson. I’ve averaged out the PFF rankings for the top ten players at both tackle and guard to compare them with. This includes their total grade, run/pass blocking grade, as well as penalties committed, sacks given up, and pressures allowed.
I’m also considering the strength of the free agency and draft class for this study. This is centered around replacing these players, so there needs to be viable options out there. While I do understand that football is more than PFF rankings, this is the most complete way I could do this study. Those numbers provide a baseline for what a good player is, and I will compare the Steelers player more in-depth.
With all of that said, here is a ranking of the linemen the Steelers need to replace the most.
Grading the free agent/draft options for the Steelers
Before digging into the Steelers players themselves, I wanted to break down the free agents and potential rookies that could be replacements for the team.
Looking at tackles, the upcoming free-agent class is full of great names. The top three consist of Orlando Brown, Mike McGlinchey, and Kaleb McGary. All three are premiere players that should receive significant paydays, as they are plug-and-play tackles for the next four or more years. Of those three, McGary and McGlinchey are primarily right tackles.
You also have a pair of former first-round picks that have been hot and cold in Isaiah Wynn and Andre Dillard, as well as some older question marks in Taylor Lewan, Kelvin Beachum, and George Fant. That said, I don’t think any of these three would be clear upgrades and pose too much risk for a sizable deal in free agency.
In the draft, you have a deeper class that lacks a true top name at tackle. Peter Skoronski is the best lineman from a pro-ready aspect, but he has size questions that may force him to move inside. Paris Johnson, Broderick Jones, and Anton Harrison all have some desirable traits, but there is still some projection with them in the pros.
Names like Darnell Wright, Dawand Jones, and Jaelyn Duncan make up the second wave of players that could be targeted. They all need to prove that they can use their size at the next level, but all three have the potential to be starters in the NFL.
Looking inside, Nate Davis will be the top prize at guard in free agency. He has developed into a top player for the Titans and is only 26. Isaac Seumalo has taken a while to get there, but he has also become a fine blocker. Add in Ben Powers and Dalton Risner and you have four plug-and-play guards. Behind them though is a lot of questions.
The draft is shallower here up top than tackle, but important to note is the potential for some of the tackles to kick inside as mentioned before. Outside of that, O’Cyrus Torrence is your true top guard, as his size and strength make him an instant mismatch for an offense.
Steve Avila and Andrew Vorhees are the only other names that stick out as early starters. This trio should see the field early, but given their age, I don’t think their ceilings are notably high. Tackle has lower floors in the draft, but the potential is higher overall.
I’d say tackle is slightly deeper this offseason, as the draft and free agency all have players that could fill in. In terms of guard, unless you are landing Davis in free agency, your focus is getting a safe and consistent player over a potential superstar.
What should the Steelers do with Dan Moore?
Dan Moore: 62.4 grade, 67.3 PB, 56.1 RB, 10 penalties, 7 sacks, 39 pressures
Average: 85.4 grade, 83.4 PB, 80.2 RB, 5.7 penalties, 3 sacks, 19.1 pressures
Dan Moore Cap Charge: 1.1 million, 760k savings
Starting this list off with Moore, he was a surprise starter as a rookie. Taken in the fourth round, the expectation was for him to serve as a swing tackle early. That didn’t happen, as he showed enough in the preseason to earn a job after Zach Banner struggled with injuries.
It has been a very up-and-down two seasons for Moore. At times, he looks like a potential stable starter, lacking the elite play of a top tackle, but more than enough to hold his own in that role for a season. Other times, he seems like a disaster who couldn’t stop anyone from getting in the backfield.
Of the three names, Moore falls into the middle in terms of consistency. He flashes some stretches of great play, but he follows that up with stretches of poor blocking. His technique and footwork are nothing to write home about, but he shows enough there to warrant hope.
Moore has grown as a player since entering the league. His early play when he was forced into the lineup was bad, he seemed to get better late in his rookie season, before having a similar arc in his second season. That said, he gets to retain his offensive line coach this offseason, which means he won’t have to adjust to yet another new scheme.
Do I think Moore is an elite player? No, and I doubt he ever gets there. That said, he has shown the ability to grow every year, playing better toward the end of the season after he gets his footing as opposed to the beginning.
While he hasn’t had to show it yet, I do think Moore could move around the line if need be. I think he would be a better right tackle, and the potential is there for a move inside. He’s only 24, and he has a small cap charge in 2023, adding to his value to this team.
That said, left tackle is a supremely important position, and the fact that we are still projecting a better season isn’t a great sign for Moore. His strengths are his age, cost, and ability to show growth. His negatives are his inconsistencies and lack of a complete average or better season.
What should the Steelers do with Chukwuma Okorafor?
Chukwuma Okorafor: 61.2 grade, 62.8 PB, 55.7 RB, 4 penalties, 3 sacks, 41 pressures
Average: 85.4 grade, 83.4 PB, 80.2 RB, 5.7 penalties, 3 sacks, 19.1 pressures
Chukwuma Okorafor Cap Charge: 13 million, 6.9 million savings
The longest-tenured member of this offensive line, Okorafor was drafted in the third round of the 2018 draft. Taken when the tackles still had capable starters, Okorafor was given the chance to develop on the bench as he served as the swing tackle early in his career. He stepped in as the right tackle in 2020 and has manned the position ever since.
By far, Okorafor is the most consistent name on this list as a blocker. His swings aren’t as high or low as the other two names being discussed. That said, his overall play is still mediocre. While he doesn’t have stretches of horrendous play, he also lacks stretches of great play. Instead, he is consistently average or below average.
This is shown in his PFF stats, as his penalty and sacks given up are more in line with the average, but his overall blocking isn’t that great. He is a safe option, but a safe option that lacks the potential to be any better than he currently is.
While he could play left tackle, if need be, he lacks the functional strength to kick inside to guard. While still young at only 25, he has been in the league for five years. He showed some growth going from a liability to an average player, but the growth has stopped there. I doubt he grows much more as a professional.
The issue with Okorafor is his cap hit. The team can save over half of that 13 million by cutting him. That 6.9 million could cover most, if not all, of a free agent’s first-year cap hit at tackle. As well, I do think he could be replaced with Moore if the team needed him there.
We will ultimately know if Okorafor is going to stick around early in the offseason, as he has a 4-million-dollar roster bonus that kicks in shortly after the new league year begins. If he is released, it will be before that money kicks in. His strengths are his consistency while his negatives are his lack of potential moving forward and his cap hit.
What should the Steelers do with Kevin Dotson?
Kevin Dotson: 65.4 grade, 77.6 PB, 61.1 RB, 12 penalties, 4 sacks, 16 pressures
Average: 79.3 grade, 76.3 PB, 75.9 RB, 2.9 penalties, 1.8 sacks, 19.1 pressures
Kevin Dotson Cap Charge: 2.9 million, 2.7 million savings
Rounding out the trio is Dotson. Taken in the fourth round, the college tape made Dotson seem like a potential sleeper player. His rookie season backed that up, as he looked great in spot starts. He has yet to recapture that play though, as he has regressed in every season since.
Of the three names on this list, Dotson is far and away the most inconsistent. There are times when he is plowing through defenders and playing like an elite guard. Then, on the next drive, he gets burned by an interior pass rusher and struggles to even be a competent option for this team. Add in the dumb penalties (Dotson was the most penalized player of this trio) and the surprising number of sacks for a guard and it is hard to quantify his potential in 2023.
While he is only entering his fourth season, he came into the league as an older prospect and will be 27 next season. While it would be nice to see he still has room to grow as a player, he is quickly entering the prime of his career. I’m not sure how much more development will be there given his age.
A lot of Dotson’s issues lie in his technique and mental mistakes. He was never the best technician, but at times he looks like a flailing bear as opposed to setting himself and properly attacking a defender. He makes stupid mistakes as well, leading to higher numbers of sacks and penalties, something this offense can’t afford.
He gets an increase in salary due to his proven performance escalator, which sees his cap hit jump to nearly 3 million. While not bad for a capable starter, that would make him a pricy reserve if he were replaced. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dotson moved if he can’t retain his starting position.
Of the three players, I think Dotson’s high is genuinely the highest of the three, when he is on it, he looks the part of a good player. He also has the lowest lows. Dotson is a hard player to gauge because of this, as a lot of his issues are mental as opposed to physical.
Who needs to be replaced the most on the Steelers?
These are three very different players for the Steelers, and their variance in play makes this a hard choice. Okorafor is the most consistent player, but his consistency comes with his mediocre play and a high cap charge. Moore has some swings in his play, but he is cheap, versatile, and has shown the ability to grow. Dotson has the highest highs of the group, but he also has the lowest lows and struggles with the mental aspects of the game.
All things considered; I personally would target a replacement for Okorafor first. His play doesn’t impress me, and the cap charge/savings make him expendable. Had his deal been for less money, I would have more strongly considered keeping him, but he lacks the potential of the other two and is too expensive.
The next is a real toss-up. Their cap charges are similar enough to negate that being a huge factor. If both reached the top of their potential, I believe Dotson would be the better player. That said, he is much closer to his ceiling given his age.
I struggle with Dotson’s mental mistake. He shouldn’t be making so many at his age, and it really limits him. This leads to wide variances in his play, both from a blocking standpoint and as a blocker.
Moore isn’t going to a star, but I think he is most deserving of another shot to start, and thus I label him as my safest player for the team. While his play has a variance, it isn’t as severe as Dotson, and the mental aspect of the game is better with Moore.
It was a close one though, and what ultimately won it over for Moore is his versatility. I think he can kick to the right side or inside even, and that is something that Dotson lacks (he can’t play tackle). Realistically, if the Steelers upgraded both tackle spots, Moore could still play at guard.
There is an argument that could be made for all three to be replaced, and while I wouldn’t be opposed, remember this team only has so much capital in the draft and in free agency. It isn’t realistic for the team to acquire three slam-dunk improvements given the needs elsewhere.
While Okorafor is the safest player, I believe he is the most deserving to be replaced. Dotson edges out Moore next, as his variance and mental lapses make him too big of a liability, and I’m not sure those issues are going to improve. Moore, to me, is the best option to retain as a starter given his ability to grow and versatility on the line.