2011 Preview By the Numbers: New England Patriots vs. Steelers

New England’s Defense vs. Pittsburgh’s Offense

There are plays to be made against the Pats defense.

If you have the means to match up with their defense, you can score on the Patriots defense. Lest you forget, the Browns put 34 on the Pats last year. The Browns!

While not on the level of the Patriots’ offense, the Steelers had a very good offense last year. Their offensive DVOA was 17.9% (compared to the Pats’ score of 46.1% overall).

Surprisingly, the Steelers rush offense was only rated 14th in the league in terms of production per play (DVOA 0.01%), but the passing offense played great. They were third in the league with a DVOA of 45.8%. (Remember, the percentages represent how much better than the average offense this offense is.)

On defense, let’s just say the Pats are not the Steelers.

The Pats were below average in terms of production they allowed on defense. The Pats had a DVOA of 4.7%. (By way of comparison, the Steelers had a defensive DVOA of -18.5%. Because DVOA represents scoring, negative numbers for a defense are good.)

Against the pass, the Pats were average with a DVOA of 7.0% (15th in the league), but against they run, they were not good. Their rushing defense scored a DVOA of 1.4%, good for 23rd in the league.

The Pats were tied for 19th in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt and 30th in passing yards per game.

Against the run, they were 11th in yards per game allowed, but that could be a little misleading. Because they were ahead in so many games, fewer teams had the opportunity to run against them. Plus, those numbers are a little skewed by Peyton Hillis’s absolutely dominating performance against them when he put up 184 yards on 29 carries, good for a 6.3 yard/rush average.

What does all that mean? Like I said, the way to beat the Pats is to keep Tom Brady off the field. They were not really a dominant defensive unit if you look at their entire body of work. Mostly, the Pats won games on the right arm of Brady. Once they had a lead, they forced teams to throw on them. When you can make a team, any team, one dimensional on offense, you have a good chance of beating them.

Location, Location, Location

Heinz Field has been a house of horrors for the Steelers when the Patriots have come to visit. In the Brady era, the Steelers are 1-4 against the Pats, including a pair of playoff losses when the game is played in Pittsburgh.

The weather will not be a factor as far as the Pats not being used to it because they play in worse weather in Foxboro than people can dream of in the ‘Burgh. We could hope for gale-force winds, or driving rain, which would turn the game into a rushing battle. I’m confident the Steelers could win such a game, but I doubt we will be able to rely on the weather to equalize the game.

The NFL schedulers did not do the Steelers any favors in this part of their schedule.

This game will be played during what I consider to be the toughest stretch of the season for the Mighty Black and Gold. They will have played Jacksonville in Pittsburgh, and then traveled out to Arizona.

When they return, they will have games in Pittsburgh against the Pats and Ravens before they go to Cincinnati. If there is going to be a losing streak, this will be the time for it to happen.

The Pats will be fresh coming in to Pittsburgh having just taken their bye. That extra week is going to mean any nicked up players will have a chance to heal prior to the physical pounding they will face against the Steelers.

My Take

I never look forward to seeing Brady lining up across from the Steelers. If the Super Bowl showed anything its that the Steelers’ secondary can be exploited and in the past few years nobody has demonstrated that more often than Tom Brady.

I haven’t seen anything in the draft to make me believe the defensive secondary will be that much improved, and since they can’t sign any free agents, Ike Taylor’s status remains a question mark.

I have to think if Taylor gets away, the Pats will be a lock to win this game.

Even with Taylor, I would have to give the edge to the Pats.