Bud Dupree really came on strong before his injury, but here’s why he has played his final downs for the Steelers.
Bud Dupree has been a true success story as of late for the Steelers, as he has come into his own as a pass rusher despite a few slower years to begin his career. Playing across from T.J. Watt and the firing of Joey Porter has seemingly transformed his career. Both last season and this season, Dupree was on track for top tier numbers as an edge defender. While his late-season ACL tear is a concern for any team that would want to sign him, his stats back him up as a top impending free agent.
While it would be ideal for the Steelers to retain him, it doesn’t seem in the cards, even if his injury lowers his overall market value, he will still likely be far too expensive for the team to retain. With all of that said, here are the four reasons the Steelers won’t be able to retain Dupree.
Gauging his market value
While the ACL injury was certainly a blow, Dupree has plenty of reasons to earn a significant contract after this season. The issue will be the length of a deal he signs. A team may recognize his value despite the injury and try to lock him up long term. Likewise, a team may want to see how he responds from injury before committing to him long term. While an ACL injury has a good recovery rate, the fact that he suffered the injury so late in the season means he may start the year on the physically unable to perform list.
That said, pass rushers are a thin market, and it would be shocking to see him not earn a sizable contract next year. Looking at last year, a contract similar to Dante Fowler Jr. (15 million per year) seems like the basement of what his average value should be. On the higher side, Dupree could earn a contract similar to Frank Clark (20.8 million a season), as his stats before his injury were on pace to be better than any season Clark has had with the Chiefs. All said, his value now averages out at around 18 million per year.
Would the Steelers commit long term?
Dupree may have been a late bloomer, but that hasn’t stopped him from becoming one of the better pass rushers in the league. A long-term commitment with a player that was so shaky their first few years may seem like a risk, but it seems unlikely that the Steelers would avoid giving Dupree a contract like this because of his early struggles. He has consistently improved every year and appears to be a talent that is on the rise.
The issue with a long-term deal is the injury, as Dupree has never had an injury quite as severe as an ACL tear. While the recovery from this injury is good, it will be up to Dupree to ensure he returns to form. One just has to recall Lamar Woodly to see a player that allowed injuries to damage his conditioning and as a result, ruin his career. Dupree isn’t guaranteed to turn into that, but it still makes the idea of a long-term deal worrisome.
What is more likely is that Dupree gets a deal for one to three years instead. That way, he can prove that he is recovered as well as allowing him the chance to get to another payday before he is too old. The issue for the Steelers wouldn’t be contract length, it would be price then. It is easy to backload a contract, so the first-year cap hit is minimal. The fewer years on the deal means the higher the first-year cap hit would be. Simply put, the fact that the team may shy away from a five-year deal with him makes giving him a new contract extremely difficult.
Negotiations will be hard
This was a point that was prevalent to JuJu Smith-Schuster, and it is arguably even more difficult now with Dupree. Unless the Steelers hand out the franchise tag, there is little reason for Dupree not to enter free agency to gauge his value. Unless Dupree has a large desire to stay with the Steelers, gauging what his market is will be the best way for him to capitalize on his new deal.
While the franchise tag alone would be stiff (well over 15 million dollars), it would be the second year in a row Dupree was tagged. This means, his salary would be whatever his previous year’s salary was times 120 percent. This means that in order to franchise tag Dupree, it would cost the Steelers 19 million dollars, a cap charge they couldn’t feasibly have on the books in a cap-strapped year.
Even if the Steelers hoped to sign Dupree and later extend him, they would still need to clear 19 million in cap space just give him the tag and remain cap compliant. It simply isn’t possible, meaning that Dupree will likely explore his market value instead. While the Steelers may still pursue him, there is likely to be a hot market for his services. Any bidding war will likely get too expensive for Dupree, leading to him being on a new team next year.
Future defensive contracts
While in the NFL you have to take your business day by day, the Steelers are likely looking at the future of their defense and seeing dollar signs. Watt will more than likely sign a mega-deal next offseason, one that should make him the highest-paid defender in the league. Behind him, Minkah Fitzpatrick will be looking for a deal next year, and he will certainly be paid as one of the top safeties in the league.
Throw in the usual starters that will require deals at some point and this defense will suddenly be very expensive to maintain. This makes give Dupree a top deal that much harder, as he will add to an already rich group. The Steelers tend to spread their cap hits around far more evenly. If they give deals to Watt, Fitzpatrick, and Dupree, it will severely damage the depth elsewhere on the team.
The only glimmering hope is that Ben Roethlisberger may call it quits soon. Losing your franchise quarterback may be good for your cap space, but it isn’t for keeping your roster competitive. Even then, the team may not want all of that money tied up in the defense. Again, you can argue that thinking that far ahead isn’t a good business move, but the Steelers defense is going to be owed some money sooner than later.
Alex Highsmith
This is bold to say, and there is little guarantee that rookie Alex Highsmith performs as expected, but it is safe to say the Steelers drafted him with the idea that he would take over for Dupree. While a late third-round pick isn’t a huge investment, it was telling when the team opted to use Highsmith more as the rotational piece over veteran backup Olasunkanmi Adeniyi early on in the season.
Even more to that point, the Steelers were content with keeping three outside linebackers on the field at times, again pointing to the fact that this team wanted to get Highsmith involved. While his stats haven’t been gaudy, they have been solid for a rookie. He has already compiled a sack, an interception, and four quarterback pressures, all the while he has only played roughly 20 percent of the defensive snaps.
It is far too early in his career to know if Highsmith will be a better or worse player than Dupree, but it is safe to say that Highsmith will be the far cheaper option going into next year. The Steelers are obviously fans of the rookie, and while Dupree’s injury was unfortunate, it gives the team ample time to see what they have in Highsmith. The team was prepping for this departure, and given how expensive he will be, Dupree is as good as gone.
While Dupree’s time with the Steelers featured a slow start, he has clearly shed the label of ‘bust’ and has become a quality starter on this defense. While letting a player as good as he enters free agency is hard, it seems like the most likely option given these reasons above. It’ll be hard to lose a player of his caliber, but the Steelers seemingly have a depth chart they are excited to start.