Steelers Draft Study: Reasons why taking a RB early is a waste of a pick

Here are the reasons that the Steelers using an early pick on a running back would be a waste in the 2021 draft

While the Steelers certainly have a hole at running back, the clamoring for Najee Harris in the first round has to stop. It’s not that Harris isn’t a good prospect, but the idea of taking a running back that early when the team has a plethora of needs elsewhere would be a waste of a pick. While the Steelers should draft a running back in this class, it shouldn’t be any earlier than in the second round.

Here are the reasons the Steelers can’t waste their early-round pick on a running back.

Running has become a team activity

Back in the early 2000s, having a capable back that could carry the ball 20-30 times a game was a must. Running was an essential part of the game as the quarterbacks paled in comparison to what they are today. This isn’t 2002 anymore though, and offenses are far more dynamic than what they were then. Now, a capable receiving game is far more important than a capable running game. This doesn’t mean teams don’t run, but more teams utilize entire backfields as opposed to a single bell cow.

As well, one could argue that an elite offensive line can make any running back elite. While there will always be the exception, the Steelers saw this with Le’Veon Bell a few years ago. His patient style of running mixed in with the elite offensive line play allowed him to choose the hole he wanted to hit. He had no such luck with the Jets as their line was in shambles. Likewise, Ezekiel Elliott was considered a dominant player but struggled mightily this year after his line was hurt. Running backs have value, but they aren’t worthy of a first-round pick anymore.

2020 proof

According to Pro Football Reference’s scrimmage yard leaders, the top ten running backs in the NFL this year were: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, James Robinson, Elliott, Josh Jacobs, and Nick Chubb. All of those players are premiere talents at their position, but not all of them were actually first-round picks.

Of that list, only Jacobs and Elliott went in the first. Meanwhile, three of these players were second-round picks, two were thirds, and there was one fifth and one undrafted player in the mix as well. All of this points to the fact that running backs can be found later in the draft. No, this doesn’t mean the Steelers can take any late-round rookie and turn them into a star running back, but if the team invests elsewhere early, they can still find a starting running back later.

To be fair, the NFL has seen its share of first-round running backs decrease in recent years (probably because teams understand drafting one in the first is a waste). That doesn’t explain why this list is dominated by mid-round picks though. If anything, the NFL should be dominated by the elite few running backs that were picked in the first. Instead, they go through the same struggles that all running backs are going through right now.

How have first-round picks fared?

Just because the NFL has shifted to a more passing based offense doesn’t mean first-round running backs have disappeared. In fact, over the past eight years, I compiled every running back drafted and got the average yardage per year they compiled. The results of the ten first-round running backs from the past eight drafts are below.

As you can see, those numbers are great, and they actually had the highest number of yards per year of any of the other rounds. That may sound like it means it is best to get your runner in the first round but digging into the numbers tells a different tale. While first-round picks have averaged around 1150 total yards per year, the average cost of getting a first-round running back is at pick 15.7. That is nearly ten spots higher than where the Steelers will be drafting.

If you look at the running backs picked at or after pick 24, those yardage numbers get closer to 900 per year, held up but Jacobs who has been great in his first two years. On the flip side, four out of these ten running backs were taken in the top ten, and their average yardage is closer to 1400 per year. The top of the draft is holding up the bottom. The Steelers certainly wouldn’t trade up for a back, meaning they would be stuck with some of the lesser late first-round backs.

As well, with only ten running backs being taken in the first round over the past eight drafts, that points to another fact: these have to be generational talents. The overall success from this group comes from a bevy of “can’t miss” running backs mixed in with a couple of late-round reaches. This group has much less of a bust factor, which is good, but that cost of securing a “safe” running back is high. Instead, grabbing a back on day two makes much more sense.

How have the day two backs fared?

Just as I did with the first-round backs, here are the average stats from the past eight drafts with runners taken in the second and third round.

Now, looking at those numbers, some may say “the first-round picks have averaged more yards, that means the Steelers should take a running back in the first” and they would be wrong. Yes, these backs have on average had fewer total yards per season, but they are inhibited from a surplus of busts due to the roughly quintuple number of runners drafted on day 2 over day one.

What you do notice is that while the risk for a bust is higher, the cost of investment is far lower. In the second round, the average pick a running back was taken was 49.3 while in the third it was 82.76. Those are entire rounds different from the top-15 pick averaged in the first. While the risk of getting a dud is higher, you are investing significantly less in the player beforehand.

After these rounds, the numbers continue to decrease, and the odds of getting a starting running back decrease. Thus, if the team wants to add a more complete back, it will have to be within the first three rounds. Given the success second and third-round running backs have had, it would make much more sense for the Steelers to get a back on day two instead of day one.

Final thoughts

The biggest flaw when looking at this number is that it doesn’t consider anything outside of the running back. As stated above, offensive lines are arguably as important as the runner themselves. That is why Elliott hit such a rough patch this past season, as the offensive line that he dominated with was banged up all year. These stats compiled are just pure rushing stats.

As well, if the Steelers had fewer needs in the upcoming draft, taking a first-round running back would be more feasible. The Chiefs did this last year, as they had minimal needs coming off their Super Bowl victory, so adding a unique and dynamic back in Clyde Edwards-Helaire made sense. The Steelers, on the flip side, will have more needs than they will likely be able to fill. Taking a running back is a luxury now, and it’s one that the Steelers can’t afford.

Lastly, if the board falls absolutely horribly for the Steelers, it could be a possibility that a first-round runner like Harris is truly the best player available. That said, considering that there are quite a few talented defenders that could make it to 24, the board would have to be extremely depleted on both sides of the ball before the team should take a running back.

While the Steelers need to seriously overhaul the running back group this offseason, investing a first-round pick in a running back would be a waste. The value in the group seems to be in the second and third round instead, and the team would be wise to look for their starter there. The team has too many needs to settle for a runner. The numbers point at day two for the Steelers to target their next starting running back.