Steelers vs Seahawks: Breakdown, matchups and prediction
Its week 12, and the Steelers travel to Seattle for what promises to be a pretty tough contest. The 6-4 Steelers will try to take advantage of a 5-5 Seahawks team that will be without running back Marshawn Lynch.
Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week in which the bruised and battered Ben Roethlisberger was hopefully able to get back to being as close to 100% as possible. You can be sure that several other Steelers players used the time to nurse various nicks and injuries in anticipation of this last stretch of the regular season.
Seattle will once again start rookie running back Thomas Rawls in place of Lynch, who is sidelined due to surgery Wednesday related to a sports hernia injury.
Breakdown
This game features two top ten quarterbacks, with Ben Roethlisberger at 3rd and Russell Wilson at 10th. Roethlisberger and Wilson both rank in the top 5 in terms of YPA and are both top 10 quarterbacks in regards to accuracy rate.
Both quarterbacks excel with the deep passes with Ben leading the league in accuracy at 56.8%. Roethlisberger only has two TDs on those passes, mainly due to missing so many games and Wilson is tied for having the second-most deep passing touchdowns at 7.
In the 6 games that Ben has played he has averaged 316 yards and almost 9 yards per attempt. He has also managed 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Pittsburgh calls about 35 passing plays per game, and as I mentioned, Roethlisberger likes to target deep. Of his 211 tosses, 54 have been deep passes and 26 of those have been completed.
The Steelers will utilize their high-end, top flight receiving corps, and once again tight end Heath Miller will be used almost exclusively off the line. Heath has 50 catches on the year and is cerebral enough to see the entire field. The veteran is savvy enough to know when to break away from a block or come back to Ben as an outlet receiver.
Antonio Brown remains the Pittsburgh’s top receiver and has 79 catches for 1141 yards on the season. Martavis Bryant is the teams deep threat and leads the team in average yards after catch. He has 22 catches for 440 yards since returning from suspension. Markus Wheaton is solid if not spectacular but is ready to break out serious stats if underestimated. has been less stellar.
On defense, Pittsburgh has only given up 4 rushing touchdowns all year. The Steelers have held 6 opponents to 80 or fewer yards rushing, and they’ve caused 18 turnovers against the run. Teams seem to have more luck when they run at Pittsburgh up the middle as opposed to the edges.
The Steelers secondary remains opportunistic but vulnerable. In their last game, they were torched for 372 yards by the unimpressive Johnny Manziel. Teams know by now that the secret to keeping Pittsburgh’s defense on the field is to chip away at them with quick passes. Expect Wilson to look for the tight end across the middle or throw quick short to intermediate passes to the sideline to neutralize the Steelers pass rush.
The Seahawks boast the #1 rush offense in the league averaging 148.6 yards per game. They will be going up against a stout Steelers rush defense which allows just 93 rushing yards per game. The Steelers have held four of their last six opponents to 78 or fewer yards, including last week’s game in which they allowed just 15 rushing yards to Cleveland.
Thomas Rawls has filled in admirably for Marshawn Lynch. He is coming off a 209 yard effort against the 49ers and is averaging 6.0 yards per carry on the year. Teams have little success against Pittsburgh’s defensive ends So Rawls is going to have to attack the middle of the Steelers defensive line.
Wilson does a pretty good job of distributing his passes among his top three receivers and tight ends. Rookie Tyler Lockett has the potential and athleticism to put up serious stats though Doug Baldwin leads the team with 44 catches and 539 yards.
Seattle’s defense is ranked #2 in the league, with a solid run defense and a top 10 pass defense. The Seahawks will try to get to Ben Roethlisberger early in the game and will switch cornerback Richard Sherman from Antonio Brown to Martavis Bryant throughout the game, depending on how the Steelers line up. There is room for Ben to take advantage of the Seahawks lack of deep speed in the secondary.
Matchups
Steelers Wide Receivers vs Seahawks Secondary
Richard Sherman will be tasked with shutting down one of the Steelers premier wide receivers. Unfortunately for Seattle, Sherman can’t be in two places at once. Regardless of whom Sherman covers it will mean that either Brown or Bryant will be covered by a lesser cornerback.
Pittsburgh will be looking for the mismatch but will have to game plan for Seattle’s safeties. Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are some of the best in the game. Most likely we will see a Sherman/Brown matchup with the safeties picking up Bryant on the deep route. Ben will be looking at the soft spots in transition and will air it out if the Steelers receivers can get behind the secondary.
Steelers Inside Linebackers vs Seahawks Running backs
Rawls production has been a welcomed surprise for Seattle, especially after losing Marshawn Lynch for a least a few weeks. Pete Carroll knows that Pittsburgh’s area of least resistance is straight up the middle. Inside linebackers Lawrence Timmons and Ryan Shazier will have to plug the gaps up front and stop Rawls from reaching the second level.
It will be imperative that the inside linebackers don’t bite on fakes or get sucked into over pursuing. Rawls missed some practice time this week due to a mild knee injury, but he is fully expected to play.
The Steelers Offensive Line vs Seahawks Defensive Ends.
LDE Cliff Avril and RDE Michael Bennett both have 6.5 sacks and even when not getting their hands on the quarterback they can be disruptive in the backfield. The guards and tackles on both the right and left side of Pittsburgh’s offensive line will need to be ready, because Seattle likes to shift formations to add confusion. If the long ball ends up being a key to winning this game then the Steelers front line must give Ben time to drop back and deliver.
Prediction
This game could end up being extremely tight. Seattle has shown moments of brilliance but is incredibly inconsistent. They will be looking to turn their season around and make a legitimate run for the playoffs and that means that every game will count.
Pittsburgh has watched Cincinnati drop two games in a row and could make a play towards winning the AFC north. They will need to win 4 out of the next 6 to make the playoffs and will see this game as one that they could definitely win if they can execute and take advantage of mismatches and monopolize on any Seattle mistakes.
Seattle will try a north/south approach with Rawls on the ground. Wilson will be looking for the tight end and slot receivers across the middle and will be looking to the sideline for quick short passes. The Steelers will attempt to disrupt Wilson’s timing and hope that he turns the ball over.
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The Steelers won’t shy away from running the ball against the stalwart Seattle run defense They will continue with what has worked for them and mix up the pass and run to keep the Seahawks off balance. Ben will be looking at the opposite side of Sherman, but don’t be surprised to see either Brown or Bryant using their speed to get past the Seattle veteran.
Score
Steelers 26- Seahawks 20