2011 Preview By the Numbers: Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh

After a rare late-season bye week, the Men of Steel will travel to America’s heartland to take on the vastly improved Kansas City Chiefs. This will be the beginning of what I consider to be the easiest part of the schedule, aside from the travel.

Arrowhead Stadium is a notoriously difficult place for visiting teams to win, a fact that is belied by the beating the Ravens put on the Chiefs in the playoffs in January. That was the exception that proves the rule.

Chiefs fans are great fans and very knowledgable about the game. They will be very fired up to take on the defending AFC Champs.

The Chiefs had a great turn-around from the previous season, winning six more games and the division title. This was a huge boon for the Steelers. If any other team wins the AFC West, the Steelers are looking at a longer trip out west, in addition to the games they already have in Arizona and San Francisco. Thanks, Kansas City. We would rather go there than San Diego or god-forsaken Oakland.

Recent History

Chiefs Offense against Pittsburgh’s Defense

If the Ravens showed us anything in January, it was how to stop the Chiefs. Because the Ravens and the Steelers are so similar on defense, it is not too far fetched to expect a similar result from this game.

This will be a match-up of strength against strength. The Steelers were the number one rushing defense in the NFL in 2010, and it wasn’t even close. The Chiefs were the number one rushing offense in the NFL by nearly 10 yards a game. They also led the league in rushing attempts.

Jamaal Charles is the man running the ball in KC. He was second in the league with 1467 yards and had an impressive 6.4 yards per carry. Thomas Jones is also in the backfield and had more carries than Charles, but he wasn’t nearly as effective.

Jones’ yards per attempt was only 3.7. He was the only running back in the league with more than 230 carries that failed to reach 1000 yards. He didn’t even make it to 900 yards. He did get six touchdowns to Charles’s five. It looks like he was pulling a “vulture” on Charles, stealing some of Charles’s goal line carries.

In the playoff game against the Ravens, Charles managed a respectable 82 yards and a touchdown, but 41 of those yards were on one play. The Ravens played inspired football that day and completely dominated the game, allowing Matt Cassell to throw for only 70 yards while picking him off three times.

Therein lies the key to beating the Chiefs. You have to make Matt Cassell beat you. I’m not saying he can’t do that, but it will be harder for him to do it than if you let Jamaal Charles take over the game.

Cassell was 24th in the league for passing yards per game, but he is efficient. He had a completion percentage of 58.2% and had 27 touchdowns against 7 picks.

And that is with almost no help in the receiving corps. Dwayne Bowe was the best receiver for the Chiefs last year. He had a very good year with 72 receptions for 1162 yards and 15 touchdowns. After that, though, there was a huge dropoff in production from the men outside. The next best receiver for the Chiefs was the tight end Tony Moeaki who collected 47 passes for 556 yards and three touchdowns.

Obviously, the Chiefs saw this as a glaring need because they drafted a receiver in the first round. They took Jon Baldwin out of Pittsburgh (oddly enough) to help the 30th ranked passing offense improve.

Historically, receivers taken in the first round are a mixed bag. They could improve the team immediately, or they could be a complete bust. Chances are he will see some time against the pro team from Pittsburgh. The notoriously porous Steelers secondary will have to pay attention to Bowe as well as the rookie.

Chiefs Defense against Steelers Offense

If you have read any of these articles, you know the Steelers had a very balanced attack last year on offense.

The Chiefs defense had a tough time stopping Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense, which wasn’t nearly as explosive as the Steelers’ offense last year. They allowed Flacco to throw for 265 yards and two touchdowns. They kept Ray Rice under control, allowing him 57 yards on 17 carries and no scores, but Willis Magahee picked up the slack and carried the ball 10 times for 44 yards and a TD.

The Chiefs rushing defense is actually above average. They allowed 110.2 yards per game on the ground, which was 14th in the league.

They were not bad against the pass allowing 219.9 yards per game through the air, good for 17th in the league.

Kansas City got a respectable 39 sacks on the year, but didn’t really make a lot of turnovers happen. They recovered nine fumbles and made 14 picks. The league leaders in these categories had more than 30 combined turnovers forced.

The fact is that the Chiefs’ defense isn’t nearly as bad as the Ravens made them look in the last game they played.

Location, Location, Location

As I noted in my opening, Kansas City is an historically difficult place for visiting teams to play and win. That being said, if there is a team that can pull it off, it is the Men of Steel. They are great on the road, losing only one road game last year. Historically, however, the Steelers are only 9-6 at Arrowhead and have lost the last three of the last four they have played there.

Kansas City, on the other hand, lost only one home game last year; two if you count the drubbing the Ravens gave them.

They play extremely well at home and always have. I would have to say this is going to be one of the most difficult road games the Steelers will play this year. The good news is that it is right after the bye, so the Black and Gold should be well rested.

The NFL schedulers did not do the Chiefs any favors.

When they play the Steelers, the Chiefs will be in the middle of a murderous stretch in their schedule. They will have played the Broncos in Arrowhead and at New England, and then they play Pittsburgh. After that, they will have games against Chicago, the Jets, Green Bay, Oakland, and Denver. Three division games, three teams that made the playoffs, and both Super Bowl teams. That sucks. Good luck with that, KC.

My Take

This should be a good late-season game. You have to think that one or both of these teams could be playing for their division title or a first-round bye.

The match-ups would seem to indicate this will be a good game, but I’m sure that is what the Chiefs thought before they played the Ravens.

The game being in KC as well as the Steelers’ deficiencies in the secondary could allow the Chiefs to nab this one.

On the other hand, the Steelers play well on the road and have more firepower on offense. Plus, not to take anything away from Matt Cassell, if the QBs name is not Brady or Manning, the Steelers’ defense seem to be able to keep him in check.

I would have to say this game is a toss-up right now.