Well, let’s see if this week’s preview will generate the feedback last week’s article did.
In week 16 the Steelers will welcome their opponents from SB14, the St. Louis Rams, into Heinz Field. As we all know, the Rams franchise actually played in Los Angeles at the time, but you get the point.
Recent History
These teams have not played very often, meeting only 13 times since 1968, including the SB14 match-up.
Their last game was in 2007 when the Mighty Black and Gold went into St. Louis and took an easy win, 41-24.
Before that was a game in Pittsburgh in 2003. The Rams took that game, 33-21.
For the entire series, the teams are very even with the Rams holding a 7-6 edge.
Interestingly, the win in the Super Bowl was the first time the Men of Steel had ever beaten the Rams. The Rams had won the first four meetings dating back to 1968.
The Rams actually originated in Cleveland and were moved to L.A. in 1946. Man, Cleveland just can’t catch a break with their teams, can they? Anyway, there was no record I could find of the Cleveland Rams ever having played the Pittsburgh Steelers, so we can’t see any meetings further back in history. (Feel free to help me out if you know differently.)
St. Louis’s Offense vs. Pittsburgh’s Defense
The Rams found a significant upgrade at quarterback when they took Sam Bradford with the first pick of the 2010 draft. Marc Bulger had been declining and experiencing injuries, and was given his outright release before the 2010 season started.
Given the horrible season they had in 2009 (1 win), Bradford was part of a kind of resurgence in America’s heartland. The seven wins he helped generate in St. Louis had them thinking playoffs for the first time since 2004. In fact, a win over the division rival Seattle Seahawks in week 17 would have sent the Rams to the playoffs with an 8-8 record. As it was, the Seahawks made the playoffs by way of tiebreakers.
Even with the improvement on their offense, however, the Rams had trouble moving the ball and scoring in 2010. The Rams were 26th in the league in scoring offense and 26th in yards per game.
Bradford actually finished the season 12th in total yards. Not bad for a rookie. However, he only had 18 touchdowns in 16 games. That is only one more touchdown than Ben Roethlisberger threw, and Ben missed four games.
On the ground, the Rams have Steven Jackson. Jackson is an excellent running back who finished 2010 9th in rushing yards per game. Again, though, there was a downside. Of the 17 top running backs in the league in 2010 (the men who broke 1000 rushing yards), Jackson was second lowest in yards per rush. Only Cedric Benson (CIN) had a lower yards/rush average (3.5) than Jackson (3.8).
What this probably means is that defenses were intent on not letting Jackson beat them and challenged the Rams’ rookie QB to make the plays required to win games.
Football Outsiders (footballoutsiders.com) reports that the Rams offense was not even as good as conventional stats would indicate. Their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) was -15.2%, or 30th in the league. They were better passing the ball (DVOA -6.6%) than running it (-14.0%), but again this may have to do with defenses stacking the line to stop Jackson.
Bradford did not face a defense quite like the Steelers’ last year, but if the Steelers don’t find a way to keep Ike Taylor and get some more production out of the remaining defensive backs, I can see a scenario where the Steelers will be in a track meet. It would seem the Rams are expecting defenses to continue challenging Bradford when you consider that they only took three offensive players (out of eight players total) in this year’s draft and all of them were pass-catchers.
St. Louis’s Defense vs. Pittsburgh’s Offense
St. Louis’s defense wasn’t as bad as you might think. I’m not saying they were the second coming of the Steel Curtain. I’m just saying they could have been worse. They were the 12th best scoring defense in the league, allowing 20.5 points per game (compared to the Steelers’ 14.5 points per game allowed).
They allowed teams to move the ball, allowing the 14th most yards per game.
The Rams’ opponents seemed to have slightly more success on the ground than through the air. The Rams ranked 19th in yards allowed through the air, but were 17th in yards allowed against the rush.
As we know, the Steelers were 14th in passing yards and 11th in rushing yards per game. These numbers would seem to indicate that the Steelers will be able to move the ball against the Rams, but may have trouble scoring the ball.
The Rams’ defensive DVOA was 6.0%. This means they were 6% worse than the average defense overall. They were 21st in DVOA against the pass and 20th against the run. These are not spectacular rankings, but certainly they were not scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Of course, the Rams drafted heavy on the defensive side of the ball, including the 14th overall pick, DE Robert Quinn. Quinn is a skilled pass-rusher who was sixteenth in the country with 11.0 sacks in college. One has to think he will have an impact on the defensive side of the ball for the Rams.
This is a pretty even match-up on paper and is going to come down to which team makes the fewer mistakes.
Location, Location, Location
This game will be played in Heinz Field, where the Steelers were 7-3 including the playoffs. The Rams, on the other hand, did not travel well in 2010. They were only 2-6 away from St. Louis. It would seem the Steelers are the favorites given the familiar surroundings and their record in Pittsburgh compared to the Rams record away from home.
This game will be played in week 16, Christmas Eve, in fact. Given that they will have just returned from a trip to San Francisco after a Monday Night game, this could be a very tough game for the Men of Steel.
The Rams will be coming off a Sunday game at home against the Bengals.
I think the Rams will be the favorite on the fatigue factor, but if there is one thing Steelers’ Head Coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t make, it is excuses. He will have the Steelers as ready as they can be for this unique short week.
My Take
I’m not sure how to call this game. On the one hand, the Steelers are clearly the better team from last year. That being said, if Bradford can continue to progress, and the Steelers’ secondary is as inconsistent as it was last year, it is not a stretch to say the Rams might win this game.
That uncertainty in the defensive backfield, the fact that the Rams’ defense might match up fairly well against the Steelers’ offense, and the short week and amount of travel they will have means the Steelers will be on their heals.
I believe the Steelers will win, but it will not be a walk.
I’ll take the Steelers by the home-field advantage, three points.