The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals with a tight betting game on the line.
Another week, another Prime Time game for the Steelers. It took a record-breaking, last-second kick from Chris Boswell to collect a win over the Packers last Sunday night, an outcome bookmakers never saw coming. Pittsburgh (9-2) entered the game as 14-point favorites, and they now find themselves 0-3 when favored by 10 or more points this season.
Luckily for them, they aren’t so heavily favored this week as they travel to Cincinnati to take on the division rival Bengals (5-6) tonight on Monday Night Football. Winners of seven-straight games and five straight against the Bengals (including a 29-14 Week 7 victory at home), Big Ben and Co. are rolling in hot. Perhaps the most impressive streak Mike Tomlin’s team finds itself on? They are 10-0 SU in their last ten Prime Time games.
Expect that streak to continue. The Steelers are 6-0 on the road this season, with impressive victories at Carolina, Baltimore, Kansas City and Cleveland (lol jk). The line opened earlier this week with the Steelers favored -6.5, but has fallen to as low as -4.5 on some sports books ahead of tonight’s game.
The Bengals are also heating up. Cincy enters tonight on the wave of back-to-back victories, but have beaten the Steelers at home just TWICE in the past nine seasons.
Of course, the reason for the the line dropping is assuredly related to the news of Antonio Brown’s injured toe. The injury kept him out of practice on Friday and Saturday, and has him questionable as of today. Brown is an iron-man and hasn’t missed a game in five years, but if he can’t go, it will be tough sledding for a Pittsburgh offense that relies so heavily on the superstar receiver. For example – Brown has accounted for 32 percent of Ben Roethlisberger’s targets and completions this season, and 40 percent of the team’s receiving yards.
BET OF THE WEEK
Smash that Under. Remember all that preseason talk about an explosive offense that could average upwards of 30 points a game? Instead Pittsburgh has ironically and routinely gone under, including eight of their last 11 contests.
This trend is especially relevant in this AFC North rivalry, where you can set your watch to a specific kind of fierce, low-scoring game. In five of the last seven of matchups between these two, the total has gone – you guessed it – under.
The O/U currently sits at 43, a number the Steelers have topped only twice this season, albeit both of those occurrences have come in the past two games.
Which is whatever. Put that recency bias aside, all signs point to this one being another in a long line of tight, low-scoring matches between these two rivals, especially if Big Ben is without his right-hand (and most sure-handed) man in Brown.
Stats Close-Up
Bengals Offense – 32nd in offensive YPG, 18 PPG
Steelers Defense – 3rd in defensive YPG, giving up 17.6 PPG
Steelers Offense – 7th in offensive YPG, 23.5 PPG
Bengals Defense – 14th in defnesive YPG, giving up 19.5 PPG
Oddshark Game Predictor – 28-15 Pittsburgh
All stats courtesy of Oddshark and NFL.com.
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The Steelers should take this Week 13 matchup, and depending on your faith in Vegas, there’s definitely some quality bets to take advantage of in this one.