The AFC playoff race is tight with only four games left. See what the Pittsburgh Steelers’ scenarios look like heading into the last stretch of the regular season.
The Steelers have a half-game lead on the AFC North heading into week 14. The two-game losing streak has not helped and made their chance to have a first-round bye or home field advantage out of their control.
I have analyzed almost every possible playoff scenario and it has made my head spin! It is amazing that almost every playoff seed is still possible for the Steelers with only 4 games left to play.
I will discuss the worst case scenario, best case and how I think it will ultimately end up.
The next four games are at the Raiders week 14, home vs the Patriots week 15, in New Orleans vs the Saints week 16 and a home game vs the Bengals week 17.
Worst Case
The losing could continue and basically be out of the playoffs. If the Steelers win none of their next four or only one game and the Ravens win two of the next four (Chiefs, Buccaneers, Charters, Browns), they will not win the conference and probably be out at a record of 8-7-1.
Best Case
The Steelers win out, they win four straight games. The Patriots win one of four, KC goes 1-3, and the Texans and Chargers split and finish the last four at 2-2. This would give the Steelers the top or #1 seed. This does not seem likely as New England plays the Dolphins, Steelers, Bills and the Jets with the Steelers the only team with a winning record.
What I think will happen
The remaining games are a real litmus test for the Steelers. I see two of the four contests as very difficult and two that should be relatively easy wins. If they can win two of the next four the probability of them winning the AFC North title is very high.
I think they beat the Raiders and Bengals but lose to the Patriots and maybe the Saints. In my calculations even if the Steelers beat either the Patriots at home or the Saints in New Orleans it won’t make a difference in their seed. They will get the fourth seed with winning their conference. For this, to work the Ravens have to go 2-2 also but if the Ravens beat either the Chargers or the Chiefs they would essentially knock the Steelers out of the playoffs and win the AFC North crown.
There is still a lot of football left to play this season and the playoff options are seemingly endless. The Steelers just need to win 50 percent of their games and they should be fine to win the conference and the fourth seed. I don’t think the Ravens can win more than two games with a rookie QB at the helm.
This last leg of the NFL season has many forks left in the road. We get to watch every team and players competitiveness come out so get ready for an amazing fireworks display to end the season with a bang.