Lets Mock the Steelers Draft in more ways than one

The Pittsburgh Steelers are headed to the 2019 NFL Draft. So, lets take a look at mocking the Steelers’ draft, in more ways than one.

Before we commence with our discussion about the draft and about mocking it, as it were, I know what you’re thinking: “The last thing I want to read is yet another mock draft.”

Honestly, I’m with you.  While I enjoy reading mock drafts, I take them for what they represent, which is, in my opinion, an attempt to make sense out of something that is inherently wrought with uncertainty.

Most mock drafts don’t account for trades because, in reality, you really can’t account for trades.  Take our very own Steelers, for example.  In the 2019 NFL Draft, we have ten picks.  According to the Steelers website, those picks are as follows:

First Round – 20th pick overall
Second Round – 52nd pick overall
Third Round – 66th pick overall – from Oakland Raiders (Antonio Brown trade)
Third Round – 83rd pick overall
Fourth Round – 122nd pick overall
Fifth Round – 141st pick overall – from Oakland Raiders (Antonio Brown trade)
Sixth Round – 175th pick overall – from Oakland Raiders (Ryan Switzer trade)
Sixth Round – 192nd pick overall
Sixth Round – 207th pick overall – from Arizona Cardinals (Marcus Gilbert trade)
Seventh Round – 219th pick overall – from Tampa Bay (J.J. Wilcox trade)

It is certainly possible we will stand pat and select ten players.  It’s not like we haven’t been down this road before. Most recently, as I indicated in a previous article, we had ten picks in the 2010 draft.  Just to recap, here are the players we selected in said draft:

Round 1: Maurkice Pouncey

Round 2: Jason Worilds

Round 3: Emmanuel Sanders

Round 4: Thaddeus Gibson

Round 5:  Chris Scott, Crezdon Butler and Stevenson Sylvester

Round 6:  Jonathan Dwyer and Antonio Brown

Round 7: Doug Worthington

Question: Does having more picks in a draft equate to drafting better players than you would have drafted had you only had one pick in each round?  In this case, I would say, no.  With the exception of Maurkice and Antonio, who are (were) superlative Steelers, two were solid contributors (Worilds and Sanders) and the rest were “fair to middling”, as the saying goes. If you’re keeping score at home, the 2010 draft was 40% effective.  Yikes!  What does this reveal? Let’s table that discussion for now, but we will circle back to it.

My son and I watch the draft; not just round one, but every round.  It’s a time for us to predict whom we might pick. My son accurately predicted the Dan McCullers and Tyler Matakevich picks, just as an aside.  Let’s get to the mock draft, shall we? Although I indicated it’s improbable to account for trades in a mock draft, that is exactly what will transpire here because, personally, I do not believe we will draft ten players; we certainly may draft ten players, but I don’t think we will (draft ten players). Full disclosure:  My soon-to-be 21-year-old son and I put this mock draft together collectively.  We both watch a ton of college football.  By virtue of the fact that he stays up later than I do, he is offered the opportunity to watch PAC-10 and PAC-12 games with more frequency than I (can watch said games). Rather than commenting on the specific player as, quite honestly, there exists a plethora of analysis on these players, I will merely comment on the position.  I am neither a draft pundit nor am I a pundit of any kind. I am just a fan who happens to watch a ton a college football with an eye towards which player might become the next Steeler.  All stats and biographical information courtesy of the official NFL website.  Here we go:

Round 1:

Bryon Murphy CB University of Washington

Although I think we try to trade up to take Devin White, ultimately, we will consider the price tag to be too exorbitant, so we stay at 20.  Personally, I do not believe the signing of Steven Nelson will preclude us from drafting a cornerback.  Quite frankly, our depth chart is a little suspect right at the moment.  Assuming Haden and Nelson will be the starters, who do we have behind them?  Burns is a huge question mark; Sutton and Allen are unproven.  Hilton is purely a slot corner, in my opinion.  If Deandre Baker is also there at number 20, it could prove to be something of a dilemma.

Round 2:

Chase Winovich DE University of Michigan 

What concerns me with Winovich is the fact that he only put up 18 reps on the bench at the NFL Combine.  Not to jinx the young man, but Jarvis Jones did 20 reps at his Pro Day; we all know how that story ended. At 6′ 3″ and 255 LBS, Winovich is obviously too light to play DE, so he would be moved to OLB, where he could provide some much-needed depth.  Behind Chickillo, we have Ola and Keion Adams, both of whom are unproven. Michigan is the favorite college football team of both my son and me.  We watched nearly every game that was televised; Winovich can flat out play, (needless to say, that is my non-professional opinion).  We’ll put him the weight room; he’ll be fine.  While we’re at it, Adams could stand a little bulk as well.

Round 3:

David Sills WR West Virginia 

Sills may not be there in the third, but, if he is there, I think this would be a good “value” pick.  Ben has always wanted a big body receiver.  While there are other taller receivers in the draft, they will most likely be gone by the third round.  Ju Ju is a phenomenal talent, but he will need help this year as he simply will not be able to singularly carry the receiving corps.  At 6′ 3″, he ran a 4.57 in the 40-yard dash at the combine; none too shabby for a big body receiver.  Hey, the reality is this:  If he can get open and catch and make the “combat” catches, he’ll earn a spot on the offense.

Round 3: 

Jace Sternberger TE Texas A&M 

Behind Vance McDonald, we have Xavier”X-Man” Grimble.  To say that we need depth at TE would be an understatement. Since he put up only 17 reps on the bench, we need to have him work out with Winovich and Adams. In the few Texas A&M games my son and I watched, Sternberger was able to get open and catch the balls thrown to him. What more can you ask a TE to do other than be a great run blocker? Make no mistake, he is not Heath Miller in the run blocking department, but, unless we trade for Delanie Walker, we will have to teach him the fine art of run blocking.

Round 4:

Wes Hills RB Slippery Rock

A 6’2″ and 218 LBS, he is a big back.  Admittedly, I did not watch any Slippery Rock football; however, I did watch the Senior Bowl.  He looked pretty good to me.  Behind James Conner and Jaylen Samuels, we have a lot of unproven players.  Again, this pick may be a pick that provides depth, but depth at the running back position can only benefit us.  Just because he went to a small school, does not mean he can’t play in the NFL.

Round 4: (Trade)

Tre Lamar ILB Clemson 

In order to jump back into the fourth round, we traded two sixth-round picks this year, our seventh-round pick and James Washington. Before anyone grabs a pitchfork and a torch, hear me out.  With the signing of Donte Moncrief, we have a big body receiver on the outside.  If we draft Sills, we will have another big body receiver.  With Ju Ju on one side and Moncrief on the other, where does Washington fit in? Is he a slot receiver? We have Eli Rogers and Ryan Switzer to fill those roles.  I just don’t see a fit for Washington.  The depth at ILB is a question mark.  Is Mark Barron going to be a starter alongside Vince Williams? I think he will be a starter which leaves us with Jon Bostic and Tyler Matakevich as back-ups.  Lamar could find a role for himself in that group.  I could also see us taking Drue Tranquill from Notre Dame here.

Round 5:

Andrew Wingard S Wyoming

Putting up nine reps on the bench at the combine is nothing to get excited about, let’s be honest.  With Morgan Burnett’s departure, we need depth at the safety position in a big way. I could see him carving out a role as a “box” safety in one of our many sub-package defenses.  He has good size at 6’0″ and 209 LBS.  I only watched a few Wyoming games, but he was all over the field.  Not to sound like a broken record, but depth at the safety position needs some help. Behind Davis and Edmunds, we have Dangerfield and Allen.

Round 6: 

Jonathan Ledbetter DE Georgia

At 6′ 4″ and 280 LBS, he is not a prototypical DT or DE, so where does he fit in?  He would be a DE and provide depth. He ran a 5.14 40 yard dash, which is pretty impressive for a big man.  Unlike Joshua Frazier, who was drafted in the seventh round last year, maybe Ledbetter would make the “taxi” (practice) squad.

Let’s bring this discussion full circle. As I indicated earlier, the last time we had ten picks in a draft, we “hit” on four of ten draft picks.  I posed the question, “What does this reveal”? Well, it probably reveals nothing other than the law of averages suggests that you can’t “hit” on every draft pick and that the more picks you have, the percentage of success decreases.  Of course, that is my scientific analysis. The NFL Draft, inherently, is wrought with uncertainty.  No amount of planning can prepare an organization for what another organization may do on draft day.

All it takes is one team to do something unexpected to throw the remainder of the draft into a “tizzy”, which is why mock drafts, while fun to read and interesting to ponder, are almost an exercise in futility, albeit an exciting exercise. I hope you enjoyed this exercise.