The Steelers open as favorites vs. the Cardinals
Here comes the challenge, but the confidence Steelers fans should hold in believing they will be able to suppress the versatility of the Cardinals offense. Expounding on what has already been stated, Kingsbury & Murray headline the NFL’s 14th ranked DVOA offense.
For anyone who isn’t familiar with this term, the originators at footballoutsiders.com have created a model that tallies more than just net yardage, explaining it as such:
"“It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation”"
It’s important to note this because even though base numbers show that the Cardinals rush for 114.1 yards per game, their efficiency on the ground is 2nd in the league. This doesn’t simply mean the ranking of their rushing yards per attempt (4.9), but also taking into account the situations of when they do decide to run & the against what levels of competition. Basically, for them to be in this position shows the mind of Kliff & intangibles of Murray to already be at work.
Thankfully, the Steelers have the defense to counteract this, and then some. Top 5 in opponents yards per game, average yards per play, sack percentage, and takeaways per game, these are just a few of the bragging rights this rising group will enter with against a Cardinals offense that has struggled in recent weeks.
In three of the past five weeks, Arizona hasn’t managed to rush for more than 100 yards, while also throwing for less than 150 yards in the previous two games. Also, once a strong-suit for this team, the Cardinals offense has turned the ball over 5 times in the past three games.
The Steelers must create pressure, and will have a great opportunity to do so constantly.
Kyler Murray has been charged with being at fault for 19 of the sacks he's taken so far this season.
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) December 5, 2019
No other QB since 2006 has been charged with more than 15 over an entire season via @PFF's database.
With the recently named AFC Defensive Player of the Month & top candidate for DPOY, TJ Watt, coupled with Bud Dupree & Cam Heyward, they will be up against an OL that has allowed an average of 4 sacks in the past 3 games.
In order to stop the true threat of any momentum for the Cardinals offense and a rookie QB that’s actually completing 64% of his passes & is 10th in the NFL for QBR (60.8), it begins with the front 7 in doing the most damage they can. Also, they have to be sound in accounting for RBs in the passing game. According to fantasypros.com, the Cardinals are the only team in the NFL with multiple RBs in the top 15 for average targets per game for backs.
Vegas has the Steelers just a 2.5 point favorite, and understandably so. 4 of the Cardinals losses/ties have been decided by 6 points or less, and have come against teams such as the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, & Detroit Lions. What should be a win, could be a lot closer than what fans want to anticipate for, but a dub is necessary & is expected.