Steelers narrowly favored at home over Buffalo Bills

The Steelers haven’t been favored often this season. Here’s why the line is so close this week in Pittsburgh against the Buffalo Bills.

Despite their respectable 8-5 record, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been considered underdogs for much of the 2019 season. Their offense was in shambles early on after losing Ben Roethlisberger for the season.

However, even without James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster for nearly a month of play, Pittsburgh found a way to win games – going undefeated, in fact, in their absences.

Last week, the Steelers opened as underdogs yet again to the Arizona Cardinals, though the line soon shifted in favor of Pittsburgh. So when it came time for oddsmakers to divvy out the spread this week, they took notice of what Mike Tomlin’s team has been doing.

The Steelers opened as 1 point favorites over the Buffalo Bills this week, and that line has yet to shift in either direction, courtesy of The Action Network. Buffalo has been on the fast track to a playoff appearance for a while now after starting the season with 5-1. While their play has taken a dip in the second half of the season, the Bills still possess a 4-3 record that included an impressive win against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

Nobody predicted the Steelers season to turn out quite like it has. Pittsburgh is down to their 4th quarterback from August – an undrafted rookie who didn’t make the initial roster this year. However, Devlin Hodges is turning out to be a pleasant surprise in Pittsburgh. Though he has yet to throw for more than one touchdown pass in a game, he is 3-0 to start his NFL career and has shown a lot of improvement with his ball placement and decision making.

While both the Steelers and Bills are led by two young quarterbacks, these units are known mainly for the defense they have played this season. Buffalo is second in the league only to New England in points allowed per game. They are surrendering just 16.3 points per contest – 14.0 over their last three games.

Meanwhile, the Steelers had a rough start to their season defensively, but they have allowed just 15.7 points per game over their last 10 matchups.

The biggest difference has been the takeaways. While the Bills are tied for 17th in the league with 1.2 takeaways per game, the Steelers remarkably are averaging 2.5 per contest. Takeaways can certainly be unreliable, but Pittsburgh may need to get a few to pull out a win against a solid opponent this week.

Offensively, the numbers have been close for these two teams. The Steelers have managed to score just 19.9 points per game (23rd), while Buffalo is currently scoring 21.1 per contest (20th).

This should be an evenly matched contest, and a 20-point showing could be enough to win it from either team. It will be crucial for the Steelers to take care of the ball if they want to advance to 9-5 and have a chance to defeat the Bills for the top wildcard spot in the playoffs this year.