The Steelers don’t want to lose pass rusher, Bud Dupree, to free agency, but here’s why giving him a massive contract extension is so risky.
Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have made it clear that they want Bud Dupree to be a part of their future. Pittsburgh has established one of the NFL’s best defenses in 2019 headlined by players like T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Heyward.
While these three All-Pros are essential to the operation, it’s understandable why the Steelers would want to get a deal done with Dupree. However, there’s a chance that making Dupree one of the league’s highest-paid edge defenders could be a horrible mistake that will set Pittsburgh back years.
While Dupree’s 2019 statistics look impressive on paper, there is much more to consider than sheer sack totals when it comes to negotiating a new deal.
There’s no question that 11.5 sacks are an impressive number, but Dupree’s production is a bit misleading. Pro Football Focus recently wrote an article about free agents who carry the most risk in 2020 and Dupree was near the top of the list. Here is what they had to say:
"Rule number one of NFL free agency: never trust the sack totals. Dupree had double the amount of sacks in 2019 than he has had in any of his previous four seasons in the NFL. He made more impactful plays, but generated pressure on a per-play basis that failed to crack the 50th percentile.Dupree had a poor pressure rate and was still average in winning rep-to-rep with just a 13.1% pass-rush win rate, ranking tied for 50th. With the handful of big impact plays, Dupree had a career year in 2019, producing a 76.3 pass-rush grade that was 24th at his position. His previous high in his first four seasons sat at just 61.0. That’s not good, folks. Dupree was good in 2019, but the historic play from him is too poor to pay for. Not to mention, sacks are more descriptive than predictive. Never trust the box score."
A couple of factors need to be considered here. First, despite his production in 2019, Dupree had a poor pressure rate (which has been consistent throughout his career). According to PFF, Dupree has ranked 83rd, 44th, 51st, and 63rd in the NFL in pressure rates over the four seasons he has qualified.
It’s also important to consider the number of snaps Dupree played in looking at his production. Dupree played 980 defensive snaps for the Steelers in 2019 – more than most edge defenders in the league (including T.J. Watt). In comparison, Cowboys edge defender Robert Quinn also managed 11.5 sacks, but did so on 647 defensive snaps and had a much higher pressure rate.
Before the Steelers hand Dupree a contract, they really need to take a hard look at his body of work. The former 1st round pick has been very underwhelming overall during his first five NFL seasons, and banking on stronger performances in the future is risky business.
With just a year or two left of Ben Roethlisberger’s career, the right choice may be to franchise Dupree this season and see if he can repeat his 2019 performance in a closing Super Bowl window for the Steelers. If not, Pittsburgh can let him hit the road in 2021 and use their cap space on players who will be a part of their rebuilding process in the future.