By the numbers: When should the Steelers target a tight end?

What should Steeler’s strategy be?

What does this mean for the Steelers? I think it’s simple. They can afford to be patient. Let’s look at the hated Ravens as an example.  Remember when they swooped in and “stole” Maxx Williams from the Steelers in round 2 of the 2015 draft? Yeah. It didn’t work out so well.

Fast forward a couple of years when the Ravens remained patient and landed Mark Andrews in the 3rd. We all watched him feast on touchdown passes from Lamar Jackson last year and the Ravens appear to be set for the foreseeable future at the position.

So what should the Steelers do in round 2 if they wait until round 3 for a tight end? By the data, all offensive line positions, outside linebacker, wide receiver, and defensive tackle are a better bet.

If you look further into the numbers it makes the most sense to look at wide receiver in the 2nd round. This position outperforms tight end and then falls off dramatically in round 3. The odds of getting two quality players are better if the Steelers go WR, round 2, and TE, round 3. After that, they fall-off for RB, OL, and OLB are all much less than what we see with WR.

Analytics will never replace a scout’s ability to spot someone like Gronk in round 2. Data won’t tell GM’s that Le’Veon Bell is going to end up much, much better than Eddie Lacy. That said, it can serve as a guide and can help us all to understand how our favorite team can best maximize each pick in each round as we head toward a draft that will be mostly boring on day one for Steeler fans.

I’ll have more to share by the numbers as we approach the 2020 NFL Draft. Reviewing the Steelers’ approach to defensive backs in the middle rounds should be a hoot.