By the numbers: How should we value the Steelers mid-round draft picks?

The Steelers build through the draft. How does their performance in rounds 2 through 5 translate to success or failure on the field?

In my seminal article in the “By the numbers” series, I wrote that middle round draft picks can make or break a team and that the Steelers have historically been good at finding quality players in rounds 2 through 5. I felt pretty good about myself for claiming as much and went so far as to list off great Steeler players of yore who were selected in these rounds, but was I correct?

It’s a simple enough question. Do mid-round picks that end up contributing make or break a team? After digging into the data, every pick in round 2 through 5 between the years 2010 and 2018, I think the answer is much less simple. It depends entirely on the team.

To evaluate teams’ effectiveness, I broke down every player drafted in this timeframe and assigned them a score.  Here is how the scoring system works.

Score 0:  Bust. Washed out of the league. Fewer than 15 games played. e.g. Chris Rainey.
Score 1: Career backup. Special teams contributor. e.g. Chris Carter.
Score 2: “Unremarkable” starter. Replaceable after 2 to 3 years. e.g. Jesse James.
Score 3: Starter for multiple seasons. Good player. e.g.  JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Score 4: Elite player. Multiple Pro Bowls/All-Pro. e.g. Emmanuel Sanders (the version who caught passes from Peyton Manning, not the version who caught passes from Big Ben).