By the numbers: How should we value the Steelers mid-round draft picks?
How did teams perform?
At first, I hypothesized that teams with a higher average score for their mid-round picks would prove out to be competitive year in and year out. I was mistaken. Here’s an example.
| Middle Round Average Score by Team | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 1.32 | Miami Dolphins | 1.58 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1.44 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1.45 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1.40 | Los Angeles Rams | 1.47 |
| Buffalo Bills | 1.45 | Minnesota Vikings | 1.40 |
| Carolina Panthers | 1.38 | New England Patriots | 1.53 |
| Chicago Bears | 1.61 | New Orleans Saints | 1.50 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1.55 | New York Giants | 1.21 |
| Cleveland Browns | 1.28 | New York Jets | 1.00 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1.58 | Oakland Raiders | 1.13 |
| Denver Broncos | 1.50 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.44 |
| Detroit Lions | 1.25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.25 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.53 | San Francisco 49ers | 1.37 |
| Houston Texans | 1.49 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.59 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 1.53 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1.61 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1.56 | Tennessee Titans | 1.41 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1.44 | Washington Redskins | 1.61 |
| League Average | 1.43 |
Let’s pick a couple of teams from the above table. An easy comparison would be the Kansas City Chiefs, who come in at almost exactly the league average with a score of 1.44, while the Chicago Bears have done a better job, averaging 1.61 points over the same time period. These teams have had a much different trajectory on the field. The Chiefs are Super Bowl champs and have been in the playoffs consistently over the last 7 to 8 years, while the Bears have missed the playoffs most of the time and have no postseason victories of which they can boast.
It made me scratch my head at first. If building through the draft is so important, why would a team that has performed overall better in rounds 2 through 5 be so much worse on the field? The easy answer at first is the difference in the game’s most important position, quarterback. But Patrick Maholmes has only started the past two years for Kansas City. Prior to that they employed the steady but unspectacular Alex Smith and still managed to win at an impressive clip.
The next simple assumption would be coaching. Andy Reid is one of the league’s best offensive minds, not just in this decade but for all time. He’s a proven coach. He schemes WR’s and RB’s so wide open that any QB would feast on opposing defenses. Okay. Fair point.
But I think there is an even better answer to this question, and it correlates directly to our own beloved Steelers’ consistent run of success over the past decade.