By the numbers: Defensive back is not the Steelers’ forte, but there is hope
How should the Steelers approach the 2020 draft?
First of all, we have to approach this outside of what the draft gurus on numerous websites have been telling us. Every year we learn of the “hot commodities” coming out of the NFL combine as well as the “football players” who might not test well but who show up on tape.
We get a heavy dose of what people who don’t work for the team think the Steelers should do with the draft, but there is no way these pundits can evaluate the current roster, potential development of young players on the squad, not to mention any philosophical changes the team might intend to implement.
As fans, however, we can learn from the past and try to project what makes sense for the future. While the Steelers have struggled mightily drafting defensive backs, they have taken the steps needed to shore up their defensive backfield.
Joe Haden and Steve Nelson have the boundary corners locked down, and should an injury occur (no, it can’t, knock on wood, wear that black and gold pair of socks, whatever it takes to appease the football gods!), Cam Sutton appears ready to step in and hold down the fort. Mike Hilton is an important piece and something tells me the Steelers will retain him. Love or hate Terrell Edmunds, he’ll be Mike Tomlin’s guy for another year at strong safety and has a chance to make the leap after having played a year with Minkah.
This represents opportunity. Unlike years past, the “stillers” don’t need to pick a DB in rounds 2 through 5. This allows them to address needs on the offensive or defensive lines or at the offensive skill positions they have picked so well over the past ten years. If you combine the way the draft is shaping up with those skill positions, along with the league history at WR, RB, and TE, Pittsburgh can select the best player to fit their model without reaching for anything.
Check out this chart for more detail on how each position has performed in previous drafts.
Average score by position (NFL Draft 2010 – 2018) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Score Round 2 | Avg Score Round 3 | Avg Score Round 4 | Avg Score Round 5 | |||
| WR | 2.05 | 1.59 | 0.98 | 1.06 | ||
| RB | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.24 | 1.17 | ||
| T | 2.30 | 1.58 | 1.20 | 0.95 | ||
| G | 2.31 | 1.83 | 0.94 | 0.77 | ||
| C | 2.67 | 1.50 | 1.70 | 1.20 | ||
| TE | 1.94 | 2.11 | 1.64 | 1.45 | ||
| DE | 1.54 | 1.43 | 1.25 | 0.96 | ||
| DT | 2.00 | 1.47 | 1.32 | 1.44 |
So, Bendrick, what the heck does this have to do with anything? I understand if you’d ask that question. I ask it myself with a frequency that at times disturbs me. But there is a key here that might just unlock the best possible value for each round that the Steelers hold a pick.
Let’s suppose, for instance, that Pittsburgh’s draft picks for 2020 shape up like this:
Round 2: The Steelers still reside in their original draft position for this round.
Round 3: While Pittsburgh currently holds no picks, they expect compensation at the end of the round for the departure of Le’Veon Bell.
Round 4: The Steelers have a 4th rounder they acquired from Miami in the Fitzpatrick trade as well as their regularly scheduled draft position.
So how can they apply this chart to these picks? Let’s take a look.