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By the numbers: Defensive back is not the Steelers’ forte, but there is hope

By Jake Bendrick

PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 07: Devonta Freeman #24 of the Atlanta Falcons carries the ball against Artie Burns #25 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first half during the game at Heinz Field on October 7, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - OCTOBER 07: Devonta Freeman #24 of the Atlanta Falcons carries the ball against Artie Burns #25 of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first half during the game at Heinz Field on October 7, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – APRIL 25: A general view of a video board as the Pittsburgh Steelers pick is announced during the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft on April 25, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE – APRIL 25: A general view of a video board as the Pittsburgh Steelers pick is announced during the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft on April 25, 2019 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

How does the Steelers’ draft history inform the draft future?

Okay, let’s bring up the chart again so that it’s easy to correlate to the madness I’ll share below.

Average score by position (NFL Draft 2010 – 2018)
  Avg Score Round 2   Avg Score Round 3   Avg Score Round 4   Avg Score Round 5
WR 2.05 1.59 0.98 1.06
RB 1.77 1.82 1.24 1.17
T 2.30 1.58 1.20 0.95
G 2.31 1.83 0.94 0.77
C 2.67 1.50 1.70 1.20
TE 1.94 2.11 1.64 1.45
DE 1.54 1.43 1.25 0.96
DT 2.00 1.47 1.32 1.44

As you can see, different positions have a different trajectory over rounds 2 through 5. For instance, Wide Receivers perform well in round 2, fairly well in round 3, and then drop off a cliff for rounds 4 and 5.

At the same time, tight end is one of the most consistent positions in any draft when it comes to the middle rounds. It actually performs better in round 3 than in round 2 and holds solid for rounds 4 and 5.

Running back does not take the dive that WR encounters after round 3, but overall is riskier. Defensive tackles in round 5 have historically outperformed DT’s taken in round 4, and are nearly as effective as those taken in round 3.

Okay. So what should the Steelers do? I, for one, will be following this logic when I submit my lone mock draft in April.

Round 2: WR

  • I know, I know. They need a tight end. They could use pass rush help. A running back to step in for James Conner when he’s injured would be nice. I’ve heard it, read it, seen it. But I also know a particular WR I won’t name who is going, by some grace of the football gods, to be available in this draft slot and the Steelers will take him. Then they will win the Super Bowl. I’m feeling it.

Round 3: TE

  • As I’ve stated here and in a previous article, tight end performs well across all middle rounds and has a history of being slightly better in round 3 than in round 2. Travis Kelce, Jordan Reed, Jonnu Smith, and Mark Andrews were selected in this round. There will be a quality player available for the Steelers.

Round 4: RB, C

  • I have a sleeper running back I intend to slot for the Steelers in this round come mock draft time. While it’s riskier than some other positions, round 4 is a good time to pull the trigger and see what happens.
  • Center? Yes. The Steelers must improve the youth and depth of their interior offensive line. There will be players available who can serve as a swing OL while the Steelers groom him to eventually step in for Ramon Foster or Maurkice Pouncey.

There is a lot more data to analyze as we approach the 2020 NFL Draft. We’ll look more deeply into rounds 2 through 5 in future articles, and I’ll be looking into the athletic traits our beloved Steelers value when it comes to the skill positions.

Next. By the numbers: How should we value the Steelers mid-round draft picks?. dark

If players like Juju Smith-Schuster, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown serve as any kind of guide, it’s apparent that Pittsburgh values more than just straight-line 40-time speed. What does that look like? We’ll see in the near future.

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