Pittsburgh has a typical way they do deals. For starters, with a guy as young as Dupree, a contract will likely be for five years as that is the max time a signing bonus can be spread out. The only guaranteed money in these deals tends to be the signing bonus, which is usually equal to around the first year’s AAV (average annual value).
As for Dupree himself, his value is up in the air. His AAV likely won’t be any less than 16.3 million he would get playing off the franchise tag. Spotrac lists his market value at 16.6 million AAV, a number that does fall in line with his baseline value.
Looking at last year’s market at edge is more telling to where his value should be though. In 2019, the ‘cream of the crop’ edge rushers in free agency was Trey Flowers ($18 million AAV) and Za’Darius Smith ($16.5 million AAV). They posted 7.5 and 8.5 sacks respectfully. While Flowers was a steady player for the Patriots before joining the Lions, Smith wasn’t. Before his breakout year, he had only 10 total sacks (in three years). To contrast them, Dupree put up 11.5 sacks last year after having recorded 19.5 (in his first four years).
Considering he is coming off of a better year than Smith and had more production than Smith had, his contract should be well above his. Assuming he is tagged (and doesn’t hit the open market) and signs a deal with Pittsburgh, my guess his range would be $18-19 million AAV.
As well, anyone thinking he’ll take the proverbial “hometown discount” is kidding themselves. This may be Dupree’s only chance for a big payday, and he will likely look to get as much as he can (and rightfully so). With all of these factors considered I’ll run under the assumption Dupree signs a deal worth $18.5 million AAV.