The Pittsburgh Steelers should be a better team with the return of Ben Roethlisberger in 2020. Here’s why Pro Football Focus doesn’t agree.
If you had to double-take when you first saw this headline, you’re not alone. After going 8-8 last season with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges leading the charge at quarterback, most have predicted the Steelers would be an improved team in 2020 with the return of Ben Roethlisberger. However, Pro Football Focus disagrees.
In a recent team preview article on the Pittsburgh Steelers, PFF’s Steve Palazzolo reviewed each position for the upcoming sesaon. At the end of the article, he included the ‘best bet’ for the Steelers this sesaon – and it wasn’t making the playoffs.
According to Palazzolo, PFF’s simulation has the Steelers win total sitting slightly below 7.5 this season. Here’s what he had to say:
"Betting on Big Ben to return to his Super Bowl-caliber past appears to be a losing proposition, according to our simulation. Pittsburgh is significantly lower in our simulation then all listed betting odds; we have the Steelers’ win total sitting slightly below 7.5 wins. The best bet on the board is a plus money proposition for the Steelers to not make the playoffs. We are significantly lower than betting markets by giving them a 66.9% chance of not making the playoffs."
While Palazzolo is referring to his best bet, it’s concerning to know that Pro Football Focus has Pittsburgh’s win total below 7.5 this year. This is embarrassingly low for a number of reasons.
Though Ben Roethlisberger may only be a shade of his former self, he is still heads and shoulders above Rudolph and Hodges as a passer. Neither young quarterback could muster up more than 10 points in each of the last three games in 2019. Even one of those wins could have helped boost them towards the playoffs.
At the same time, it seems like PFF is disregarding the phenomenal defense we witnessed in 2019. While it’s unlikely that the Steelers will be able to repeat their insane 38 takeaways from last season, they are still a wildly talented unit with three first-team All-Pro players returning.
Even if Ben were to go down for the entire sesaon, I’m not sure why Pittsburgh would be a worse team than they were last year. JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner are finally healthy, they added Chase Claypool and Eric Ebron to their arsenal of offensive weapons this offseason, and Diontae Johnson and James Washington are on the rise. Likewise, Javon Hargrave was the only big loss on the Steelers defense this offseason, but Stephon Tuitt is returning from a season-ending pectoral injury and players like Devin Bush and Terrell Edmunds should be improved.
I understand why PFF thinks that it’s a better bet that the Steelers will miss the playoffs than return to the Super Bowl, but I’m still trying to wrap my head around their poor projected win total this year. As long as Ben Roethlisberger can throw, I don’t think there is any way Pittsburgh wins less than 8 games in 2020.