Why Steelers RB James Conner will rush for more yards than Derrick Henry in Week 7

Derrick Henry is the league’s leading rusher going into Week 7 against the Steelers. Here’s why James Conner will outpace him this Sunday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have a tall task ahead of them in defending the run against Derrick Henry in Week 7. However, the Titans will have their own problem against the run. James Conner is quietly having a career year in 2020.

While I do recognize the quality of a performance that Derrick Henry is having this season, he has a far tougher match up. Also, with the style of running both of the running backs employ, Henry needs far more touches than Conner to really have an impact in this game and the Titans likely won’t be able to give them to him in Week 7.

Steelers defense matches up well against Henry

Simply put, the Pittsburgh Steelers run defense, in my opinion, is the best run defense in the league. We saw that in full display in Week 6 against the Browns. The difference in the quality of defenses is going to have a huge effect in Week 7.

Looking at the Titans defense, the Pittsburgh Steelers should not have a problem getting points on a somewhat consistent basis while Pittsburgh’s defense should keep the Titans from scoring a lot. As the game wears on, if and when the Steelers grow their lead, Tennessee is going to have to rely on the pass more.

Derrick Henry’s style makes his performance in the second half of games a bit better than in the first half, as his size and power can wear down a defense. If the defense stays fresh by getting off the field early in the first half than Henry’s style isn’t going to come into play as much. This is especially true if the Titans are playing from behind and have to throw the ball more. The matchup this presents means that Henry is going to get less touches when he would be most effective and the Titans have only given him 6 rushing attempts on the season when behind by at least 9 points.

Furthermore, the Steelers defense has been really stout against the run. They are second in the league in rushing yards per game allowed. We have seen Pittsburgh completely shut down the likes of Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, and Kareem Hunt on the ground. The Steelers are averaging less than 2.5 yards more per game than the Buccaneers who are ranked first in the league.

This is massively inflated by a 74 yard carry made by Miles Sanders due to a missed tackle at the line of scrimmage in a defensive formation with extra defensive backs expecting the pass. That one run was worth more yards than Pittsburgh had allowed the Giants and Texans to run for combined, and was one yard short of what they allowed the highest rushing average team in the league, the Cleveland Browns, to rush for in Week 6. The Titans meanwhile, are 26th in the league in rushing yards per carry, allowing a whopping 137 yards per game.

James Conner is playing the best ball of his career

James Conner has been a very quiet monster this season. He is averaging a career-high 4.9 yards per carry, which has him tied for 8th out of all running backs in that category. He is also on pace for his first 1,000 yard season in terms of just running the ball. He is doing this with just 15 rush attempts per game.

That has him tied for 12th in the league. Look at Derrick Henry, he is averaging 4.8 yards per carry while averaging 9.6 more touches per game than Conner. I do think Henry is more powerful and when he turns the corner with that long stride, he can take it to the house. However, on a play by play basis Conner is turning out arguably just as much production on the ground.

Looking at the defense Conner is presented with, he has to be salivating. He should be able to run all over the Titans if he gets the chance. You have to think Pittsburgh is going to want to keep Henry off the field so I am assuming he is going to get 20 or so runs in this game. That should be more than enough for him to put out a better running performance than Henry in Week 7.

Obviously this all has to deal with health. If James Conner gets an untimely injury on his second carry than I don’t expect him to outpace Derrick Henry overall. However, I would not be surprised to see Derrick Henry held for under 70 yards rushing in this game. I also picture Conner churning out 100 yards on the ground for the 4th time in 5 games going back to Week 2 when all is said and done.