If history has a say, the Steelers will struggle vs. Jaguars

While this game seems lopsided, history says the Steelers vs. Jaguars ought to be a close matchup

It is hard to find an outlet that is predicting a Steelers loss against the Jaguars. Besides the Jets, the Jaguars seem like the weakest team in the NFL right now. This team seems beyond content to settle for a top draft pick and target a legitimate franchise quarterback now that “Minshew Mania” has dulled down. Despite being the home team, the Jaguars are still unquestioned underdogs in this matchup.

History tends to favor a different outcome, as the Steelers are 3-3 against the Jaguars since Tomlin took over in 2007. Worse yet, this team has seemed to constantly struggle against this unit for some reason. Even in their victories, their biggest margin of victory was eight points in 2014 (the Jaguars were 0-4 before that loss). Overall, the Jaguars have actually outscored the Steelers 144-134 through those six games despite splitting the wins and losses.

While 2020 is two new teams, history says this game will be close and could even favor the Jaguars. While this is a battle of the best team in the NFL vs. one of the worst record-wise, it could easily turn into a trap game if the team allows for history to repeat itself. With all that said, here are the trends the Steelers need to reverse in order to win in week 11.

Lack of an offense

Outside of one game, the Steelers have consistently fielded a miserable offense against the Jaguars. This seems surprising, as the Jaguars have been one of the most unorganized teams since joining the league, but for one reason or another, this offense struggles to do much. Outside of their playoff game in 2017, Ben Roethlisberger has barely been able to register much when throwing the ball (more on him later).

Beyond the quarterback play, the running game has also been atrocious. Besides Rashard Mendenhall in 2011, the Steelers have never had a 100-yard rusher against the Jaguars. Le’Veon Bell, a far better running back than Mendenhall, was miserable against the Jaguars, never logging more than 82-yards rushing. Worse yet, current starter James Conner’s lone game against the Jaguars had him rush for 25-yards total.

Considering the current struggles of the running game, expecting a rebound this week is far from certain. While the defense should be able to hold their own, history says the offense may be an issue. The Steelers need to have a game plan that maximizes the running game while focuses on Roethlisberger’s ability to complete short passes. If not, the Steelers may end week 11 with a loss.