Tier 2: Year-one starter with Pro Bowl upside
Zach Wilson, BYU
In many draft’s there isn’t a single quarterback I would put into this category. This year’s class has two. Zach Wilson is my QB2 in 2020, and he deserves to be the second overall pick in the draft (if the Jets are wise enough to take him there). Though Baker Mayfield is the cop-out comparison for him due to his shorter stature and squatty build, his college game tape closely resembles Patrick Mahomes’ from his time at Texas Tech.
While it’s incredibly unlikely that Wilson is Mahomes at the next level, he has a whip for an arm and is unbelievable at extending the play and slinging the ball on a rope down the field. He has all the tools you look for at the position and the film to back up being a top-two player in the draft.
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Over the summer, most thought Justin Fields could make a case for the best quarterback in the 2021 NFL Draft. While he still had a very impressive season, he has fallen to the third-best prospect on my board (but one that still has incredible tools and Pro Bowl upside).
The raw numbers for Fields this year were still remarkable, but he didn’t quite progress at the rate that many had hoped. There are plenty of questions about Fields’ processing skills and his ability to go through progressions, but the talent, tools, and production more than check the boxes to be a top-five pick.